So turns out I did 6 first time out, not 5 which explains why it took longer to do the synopsis than I anticipated. So you got a Baker's 5. I guess at the end, you'll get the last post with the top 4 - ooo the antici............pation.
First group here:
Top 20 RBs (15-20)
Again, the breakdown of each RB will look like this:
Remaining Schedule:Wk6, Wk7, Wk8,Wk9, Wk10, Wk11, Wk12, Wk13, Wk14, Wk15, Wk16 (bold is common fantasy playoff sched)
Analysis: This dude is good/bad and here is why....
Synopsis: example opportunity + good sched - injury worry - receptions = B+
So here are the next 5 - (and not a bakers 5 like the last time):
10) Clinton Portis
Remaining Schedule:
STL, CLE, @DET, PITT, DAL, @SEA, NYG, @BAL, @CIN, PHI (tough playoff sched)
Analysis: I love Clinton Portis. Guy is one of the most underrated stud backs in Fantasy Football every single year. That said, he has lost a step. He clearly does not have the burts he once did, despite beating teamates in sprints at practice. Must feel very different with pads on. Still, he puts points up and is an absolute workhorse. But like Westy, Barber and Jacobs, he is in a tough division. What you can say is, he just played two of those defense and blew them out of the water. 121 vs Dallas and 145 vs Philly?
Barber struggled against Philly and Washington. Westy had 2 TDs vs Dallas but was only saved via his receptions yard-wise. Same against Washington with one less TD and less ground yards. He got hurt vs Pittsburgh. Portis is more consistant than Barber and healthier than Westbrook. While he lacks the upside of either, he's playing exceedingly well against tough foes as well as cupcakes.
Synopsis: consistency/reliability + opportunity + achievement in hard matchups - tough schedule = B
11) Brian Westbrook
Remaining Schedule:
@SF, BYE, ATL, @SEA, NYG, @CIN, @BAL, AZ, @NYG, CLE, @WAS (tough playoff sched)
Analysis: I moved Westy around more than anyone else on this list. In fact, I had someone else here not five minutes before I wrote this. Let's look at why: He plays in the toughest division to run on, bar none - all 4 teams in the top 10 vs the run (as of 10/9). And just in case that isn't enough, he gets Baltimore as well. He why not Tennessee too?
As long as we're piling on, he's banged up again. He would have been in a better position had it just been a sprained ankle, but it's broken/fractured ribs which bother him whenever he moves. Those are not things that heal quick. They may trot him out this week, when they should bench him and give him time to heal. If he plays this week, it's only going to aggravate those ribs and take longer to get healed. It ain't all grim for him though - he catches the ball a ton, is in a dynamic offense and is a huge reason why the offense goes. If he can get healthy, he could be healthy. Still, it's brutal road going forward with this guy.
Synopsis: opportunity + dynamic offense + receptions - big injury concern - very tough sched = B/B-
12) Marion Barber III
Remaining Schedule:
@AZ, @STL, TB, @NYG, BYE, @WAS, SF, SEA, @PIT, NYG, BAL (brutal playoff sched)
Analysis: Hey I found someone with a tougher schedule than Westbrook! Again, this is not to say Barber won't produce points. But you can't like most of what you see there, assuming things stay similiar to now. It IS a theme with the NFC East RBs - it's not easy for them in this division. Barber is a bruiser and he will get his yards most of the time, but Dallas can air it if need be and watch out for Felix Jones. While he will not steal a ton of carries from Barber, he certainly will eat into them. Jones brings an intriguing X-factor into the offense and they can't keep him off the field.
The last two games, Barber's targets are down as well. Funny thing is, Jones' haven't gone up. Barber can catch the ball so we'll see if he gets more looks over the next few weeks. Would I like to own Barber? Yes. He'll get the carries to put up points most times. But the division is brutal and so is the schedule.
Synopsis: health + dynamic offense - tough schedule + unknown impact (Felix factor) = B-
13) Maurice Jones-Drew
Remaining Schedule:
@DEN, BYE, CLE, @CIN, @DET, TENN, MIN, @HOU, @CHI, GB, IND (middling/good playoff sched)
Analysis: I think this is about the only RB on this list in a pure RBBC. And no Taylor here either, though he has a great schedule as well. But MJD does more with less and consistently. The split carries hurt for sure. But I think Taylor keeps Jones-Drew fresh as often as MJD keeps Taylor fresh. Like Westbrook, MJD survives on his receptions right now. He's been tremendously effective in the past. Problem is - that was the past. In the 'what have you done for me today' mentality of Fantasy Football, MJD is a guy many owners have tried to divest themselves of. I can see why - bad production, annihilated offensive line which is only just recovering. Poor play by the rest of the offense.
But we've seen a couple of all right games from him. The oline is starting to pull it together. MJD has some fantastic matchups and we know he can take advantage of them. I know many have tried to get rid of him - I am saying GET him. I believe both he and Taylor will bounce back and MJD is the type of player who only needs a seam to open and he's gone. It's a tad risky - again the oline is still a work in progress. But I think he will be back to a solid RB2 status over his next few games and a great matchup guy going forward.
Synopsis: ability + good schedule + several great matchups - developing offense - oline questions - split carries = B-
14) Brandon Jacobs
Remaining Schedule:
@CLE, SF, @PITT, DAL, @PHI, BAL, @AZ, @WAS, PHI, @DAL, CAR (Brutal playoff sched)
Analysis: Let's be honest - Brandon Jacobs is pretty freaking good. I don't know he's as talented as some of the other backs in his division, but he is productive and is workign hard for that new contract. The whole 'hot hand' thing scared some owners off but he's been consistent so far and anyone who did draft him has been content. He had one sub-par game against Cinci - though all the Giants struggled and it was an odd game. Other than that he's been money, even against Washington. Despite that, I still hate the schedule. And it's a tough one, not only with games against all division rivals. In some cases he gets them twice! And for good measure he sees Baltimore and Pittsburgh as well as a decent Carolina run D.
So far he's been money in the bank, but he faces some real challenges this season and has an absolutely brutal schedule for your fantasy playoffs. By the end of week 9 (Dallas) we'll have a good idea how he will do after several bruising weeks. Until then, mark me as 'concerned'. Let's not forget he was banged up a lot last year and with this tough schedule, could break down again this year. Also, he wasn't a TD machine last season - so far, looks like more of the same though he is nearly at last year's mark of 4 already.
Synopsis: opportunity + dynamic offense + ability - tough schedule - injury worries = B-
That's it for now - you may see the next five today. Depends on prep for the Drive Block (10pm EST/7pm PST on BlogTalkRadio.com). But I will work on it for you. Again, feel free to comment here on the site or email me....
Thursday, October 9, 2008
Top 20 RBs Forward (15-20)
Please refer to the previous post for the preface about this article. Again, though, this is not a list of absolutes. Some studs you will start regardless of matchup. Some RBs may be ranked high here and have a couple bad matchups you might avoid. And this list itself will evolve and change as the season evolves and changes.
Feel free to disagree - vehemently (though politely, please) with these rankings. I encourage you to comment on the blog. I would love to hear other thoughts.
Each breakdown will look like this -
Remaining Schedule:Wk6, Wk7, Wk8,Wk9, Wk10, Wk11, Wk12, Wk13, Wk14, Wk15, Wk16 (bold is common fantasy playoff sched)
Analysis:
Synopsis: example opportunity + good sched - injury worry - receptions = B+
Here goes:
THE BOTTOM FIVE
This is, again, not to say these are horrible starts all the time. But for the most part they are less stable and reliable than many others.
15) Steven Jackson
Remaining Schedule:
@WAS, @STL, @NE, AZ, @NYJ, @SF, CHI, MIA, @AZ, SEA, SF (good playoff sched)
Analysis: We know Jackson has the ability and we know he will put some points up regardless of situation. But that bad oline, a rough overall schedule and a terrible offense have really set him back on this list. I think people are overlooking the Jets D - 75ypg is tough, 6 TDs so far offsets it a bit. That may change. But even if you don't believe in the Jets, AZ or Sf, there is no easy game, no cupcake at all the remainign games. Jackson will probably produce OK, but I dislike his schedule. He does have a decent playoff schedule will probably be a guy you can count on more then. But as it stands, he will be inconsistent before then. This is one that can change if Jom Haslett can revitalize that team.
Synopsis: Opportunity + ability - bad oline - terrible offense - tough schedule= B-
16) Steve Slaton
Remaining Schedule:
MIA, DET, CIN, @MIN, BAL, @IND, @CLE, JAX, @GB, TENN, @OAK (middling playoff sched)
Analysis: You have to love the relative value of Slaton, since you likely didn't draft him. It's unlikely Ahman Green takes the job back and let's be honest - if he did, he'd be hurt pretty quickly. Slaton has some rough patches in his schedule and unlike Jackson hasn't got the track record where we trust he will overcome them. The offense looked to be picking up before Schaub got sick and if that's the case, Slaton will have room to run. Now they just need the D to keep them in games so he gets the chance to run - though he can catch as well. Even when he hasn't he has broken tackles and fought for yards - he's a gamer and tough. We'll see if he breaks down near the end of the season - he is, after all, a rookie.
Synopsis: opportunity + improving O + receptions + decent schedule - middling D - rookie burnout worry = B-
17) Michael Turner
Remaining Schedule:
CHI, @PHI, @OAK, NO, DEN, CAR, @SD, @NO, TB, @MINN (middling playoff sched)
Analysis: The Falcons took great care in not only protecting their rookie QB, but their franchise running back as well. The oline is better than it has been and let's face it - the rookie Qb is better than any vet they've had in years. So the question is: why so streaky? Like the Star Trek movies, he follows up solid perfomances with complete stinkers. His game totals have been: 220, 42, 104, 56, 121. See a pattern? Me too and it concerns me. His TDs follow the yard totals as well. He almost seems like a perfect matchups guy - he plays well when he should, and struggles when he should as well. As such, CHI, PHI, MINN (your fantasy championship game), CAR - all those look like bad matchups for him. If Turner can string some good performances against tough Ds, he moves up on this list. But that schedule looks pretty brutal if he keeps up what he has done so far against good D.
Synopsis: opportunity + health +improved offense - streaky performance - tough schedule = B-
18) Thomas Jones
Remaining Schedule:
CIN, @OAK, KC, @BUF, STL, @NE, @TENN, DEN, @SF, BUF, @SEA (decent playoff sched)
Analysis: What has been going on with Jones anyway? After a good first game, it's been all downhill. The oline is better. He's got a better Qb who has a grasp of the offense finally. Yet Jones' YPC is decreasing, not increasing. I think you will see things improve as the season progresses but he will likely be pretty streaky. He's got some great matchups (DEN, OAK, KC) and just one truly awful one (TENN) so if I can see some improvement after the bye, I'd be more confident. But so far, he's headed the wrong way. This weekend is a big indicator of where he will end up at season's end.
Synopsis: opportunity + improving offense + good schedule - bad ypc - decreasing stats = B-/c+
19) Willie Parker
Remaining Schedule:
@CIN, NYG, @WAS, IND, SD, CIN, @NE, DAL, BAL, TENN(brutal playoff sched)
Analysis:Willie Parker has now been banged up two seasons going. Do I think he's injruy prone? Not so much that as unlucky. But I am concerned with his return from this injury. I don't think Mewelde Moore is going to eat into his carries all that much. The offensive line is shaky and a little inconsistent. And man is that schedule brutal in parts. NYG, WAS, DAL, TENN are really harsh matchups - as I said on the Fantasy Show last night the NFC East is the toughest division against the run and Tennessee and Baltimore are no slouches. With a better schedulem Parker would probably be higher on this list. I think he will perform ok for many of those matchups, but it could be tough sledding for him. The upside is, the Steelers love to run first, so he'll get carries and lots of them.
Synopsis: run 1st offense +ability + opportunity - injury concern - tough schedule =B-/C+
20) Larry Johnson
Remaining Schedule:
TENN, @NYJ, TB, @SD, NO, BUF, @OAK, @DEN, SD, MIA (middling playoff sched)
Analysis: Do I think LJ still has talent? Yes, I do. But not enough to overcome that atrocious oline, terrible playcalling and lackluster offense. And the defense - well, it ain't pretty. So the problem becomes that even when he could run and has a good or great matchup - will the Chiefs be in the game enough to use him? I think the first Denver game was an abberration. Not that he can't do it again, but can the team? I think as the season goes on, teams will light the Chiefs up and LJ will see more games like against Carolina where the run was just flat out abandoned. I think he'll get more carries 7 more often than not, but the Chiefs will also trail more often than not. On another team LJ would be a great big threat. Here, he's a shiny piston in a broken motor.
Synopsis: opportunity + decent schedule - terrible offense - age/past workload = C+
That took a while to write up. I don't want to give less so assume one more of these today, maybe two and the last bit tomorrow in between rankings.
Feel free to disagree - vehemently (though politely, please) with these rankings. I encourage you to comment on the blog. I would love to hear other thoughts.
Each breakdown will look like this -
Remaining Schedule:Wk6, Wk7, Wk8,Wk9, Wk10, Wk11, Wk12, Wk13, Wk14, Wk15, Wk16 (bold is common fantasy playoff sched)
Analysis:
Synopsis: example opportunity + good sched - injury worry - receptions = B+
Here goes:
THE BOTTOM FIVE
This is, again, not to say these are horrible starts all the time. But for the most part they are less stable and reliable than many others.
15) Steven Jackson
Remaining Schedule:
@WAS, @STL, @NE, AZ, @NYJ, @SF, CHI, MIA, @AZ, SEA, SF (good playoff sched)
Analysis: We know Jackson has the ability and we know he will put some points up regardless of situation. But that bad oline, a rough overall schedule and a terrible offense have really set him back on this list. I think people are overlooking the Jets D - 75ypg is tough, 6 TDs so far offsets it a bit. That may change. But even if you don't believe in the Jets, AZ or Sf, there is no easy game, no cupcake at all the remainign games. Jackson will probably produce OK, but I dislike his schedule. He does have a decent playoff schedule will probably be a guy you can count on more then. But as it stands, he will be inconsistent before then. This is one that can change if Jom Haslett can revitalize that team.
Synopsis: Opportunity + ability - bad oline - terrible offense - tough schedule= B-
16) Steve Slaton
Remaining Schedule:
MIA, DET, CIN, @MIN, BAL, @IND, @CLE, JAX, @GB, TENN, @OAK (middling playoff sched)
Analysis: You have to love the relative value of Slaton, since you likely didn't draft him. It's unlikely Ahman Green takes the job back and let's be honest - if he did, he'd be hurt pretty quickly. Slaton has some rough patches in his schedule and unlike Jackson hasn't got the track record where we trust he will overcome them. The offense looked to be picking up before Schaub got sick and if that's the case, Slaton will have room to run. Now they just need the D to keep them in games so he gets the chance to run - though he can catch as well. Even when he hasn't he has broken tackles and fought for yards - he's a gamer and tough. We'll see if he breaks down near the end of the season - he is, after all, a rookie.
Synopsis: opportunity + improving O + receptions + decent schedule - middling D - rookie burnout worry = B-
17) Michael Turner
Remaining Schedule:
CHI, @PHI, @OAK, NO, DEN, CAR, @SD, @NO, TB, @MINN (middling playoff sched)
Analysis: The Falcons took great care in not only protecting their rookie QB, but their franchise running back as well. The oline is better than it has been and let's face it - the rookie Qb is better than any vet they've had in years. So the question is: why so streaky? Like the Star Trek movies, he follows up solid perfomances with complete stinkers. His game totals have been: 220, 42, 104, 56, 121. See a pattern? Me too and it concerns me. His TDs follow the yard totals as well. He almost seems like a perfect matchups guy - he plays well when he should, and struggles when he should as well. As such, CHI, PHI, MINN (your fantasy championship game), CAR - all those look like bad matchups for him. If Turner can string some good performances against tough Ds, he moves up on this list. But that schedule looks pretty brutal if he keeps up what he has done so far against good D.
Synopsis: opportunity + health +improved offense - streaky performance - tough schedule = B-
18) Thomas Jones
Remaining Schedule:
CIN, @OAK, KC, @BUF, STL, @NE, @TENN, DEN, @SF, BUF, @SEA (decent playoff sched)
Analysis: What has been going on with Jones anyway? After a good first game, it's been all downhill. The oline is better. He's got a better Qb who has a grasp of the offense finally. Yet Jones' YPC is decreasing, not increasing. I think you will see things improve as the season progresses but he will likely be pretty streaky. He's got some great matchups (DEN, OAK, KC) and just one truly awful one (TENN) so if I can see some improvement after the bye, I'd be more confident. But so far, he's headed the wrong way. This weekend is a big indicator of where he will end up at season's end.
Synopsis: opportunity + improving offense + good schedule - bad ypc - decreasing stats = B-/c+
19) Willie Parker
Remaining Schedule:
@CIN, NYG, @WAS, IND, SD, CIN, @NE, DAL, BAL, TENN(brutal playoff sched)
Analysis:Willie Parker has now been banged up two seasons going. Do I think he's injruy prone? Not so much that as unlucky. But I am concerned with his return from this injury. I don't think Mewelde Moore is going to eat into his carries all that much. The offensive line is shaky and a little inconsistent. And man is that schedule brutal in parts. NYG, WAS, DAL, TENN are really harsh matchups - as I said on the Fantasy Show last night the NFC East is the toughest division against the run and Tennessee and Baltimore are no slouches. With a better schedulem Parker would probably be higher on this list. I think he will perform ok for many of those matchups, but it could be tough sledding for him. The upside is, the Steelers love to run first, so he'll get carries and lots of them.
Synopsis: run 1st offense +ability + opportunity - injury concern - tough schedule =B-/C+
20) Larry Johnson
Remaining Schedule:
TENN, @NYJ, TB, @SD, NO, BUF, @OAK, @DEN, SD, MIA (middling playoff sched)
Analysis: Do I think LJ still has talent? Yes, I do. But not enough to overcome that atrocious oline, terrible playcalling and lackluster offense. And the defense - well, it ain't pretty. So the problem becomes that even when he could run and has a good or great matchup - will the Chiefs be in the game enough to use him? I think the first Denver game was an abberration. Not that he can't do it again, but can the team? I think as the season goes on, teams will light the Chiefs up and LJ will see more games like against Carolina where the run was just flat out abandoned. I think he'll get more carries 7 more often than not, but the Chiefs will also trail more often than not. On another team LJ would be a great big threat. Here, he's a shiny piston in a broken motor.
Synopsis: opportunity + decent schedule - terrible offense - age/past workload = C+
That took a while to write up. I don't want to give less so assume one more of these today, maybe two and the last bit tomorrow in between rankings.
Top 20 RBs Forward preface
Here we go - a few notes first however.
This is not an end-all, be-all list. In other words, if you see player A ahead of player B, it is not always the case you should start A ahead of B. Matchups, ability and changing offensive and defensive woes apply.
In order to compile this list, aside from copious amounts of reading and player news and evaluation, I resourced the following streams of data and articles to gather data. I used Footballguys.com for their take on strength of schedules - let me be frank: I disagree pretty strongly in places. I'm not analyzing their analysis at all, please don't take it that way. But I will say I disagree with some of the takes on which teams are strong and which aren't against the run. Still, it was an invaluable base to start from. Also, NFL.com's rankings of team Ds against the run. I use this A LOT when I do rankings and other stuff, as well as setting my lineups. It helps to know that the Jets are tough on the run right now, but frequently cough up TDs even if they are stingy on the yards.
I also listened to a lot of podcasts, mostl on BlogTalkRadio - it really helps me get my perspective to hear takes other people have. Again, I may disagree with the other hosts but it always makes me re-evaluate my stand and make sure my thoughts are well supported. Along with the Fantasy Sports Channel on BTR, I also listened to NFL Rants and Raves and The Extra Points podcast, as well as tuning into the 'mainstream' ESPN and NFLN stuff both on the air and on TV. For the same reasons and in some cases, to amuse myself.
I read everything Adam Shefter did - he's really on the ball in my opinion. With him on parental leave, Steve Wyche has been good . NFL Team cam is a great place to hear players talk. And I scoured beat writer blogs and articles to hear insite as to what is happening in practices.
I took all this stuff, made my list, questioned my list, expanded my list and can tell you one thing absolutely:
This list will change. All it will take is:
The Rams to start playing like they care.
One major injury to the Minny Oline.
Miami's Wildcat getting owned several weeks in a row.
The further descent of the Chiefs offense into the abyss.
That's not even a partial list. I have a feeling we may have a ton of discussion on this topic throughout the seaon. I will certainly update this and think about it constantly, and let you know if someone makes a major move.
Based on the data we have now though here's the list - I will post in fives - so your eyes are not strained.
15-20 coming up momentarily.
This is not an end-all, be-all list. In other words, if you see player A ahead of player B, it is not always the case you should start A ahead of B. Matchups, ability and changing offensive and defensive woes apply.
In order to compile this list, aside from copious amounts of reading and player news and evaluation, I resourced the following streams of data and articles to gather data. I used Footballguys.com for their take on strength of schedules - let me be frank: I disagree pretty strongly in places. I'm not analyzing their analysis at all, please don't take it that way. But I will say I disagree with some of the takes on which teams are strong and which aren't against the run. Still, it was an invaluable base to start from. Also, NFL.com's rankings of team Ds against the run. I use this A LOT when I do rankings and other stuff, as well as setting my lineups. It helps to know that the Jets are tough on the run right now, but frequently cough up TDs even if they are stingy on the yards.
I also listened to a lot of podcasts, mostl on BlogTalkRadio - it really helps me get my perspective to hear takes other people have. Again, I may disagree with the other hosts but it always makes me re-evaluate my stand and make sure my thoughts are well supported. Along with the Fantasy Sports Channel on BTR, I also listened to NFL Rants and Raves and The Extra Points podcast, as well as tuning into the 'mainstream' ESPN and NFLN stuff both on the air and on TV. For the same reasons and in some cases, to amuse myself.
I read everything Adam Shefter did - he's really on the ball in my opinion. With him on parental leave, Steve Wyche has been good . NFL Team cam is a great place to hear players talk. And I scoured beat writer blogs and articles to hear insite as to what is happening in practices.
I took all this stuff, made my list, questioned my list, expanded my list and can tell you one thing absolutely:
This list will change. All it will take is:
The Rams to start playing like they care.
One major injury to the Minny Oline.
Miami's Wildcat getting owned several weeks in a row.
The further descent of the Chiefs offense into the abyss.
That's not even a partial list. I have a feeling we may have a ton of discussion on this topic throughout the seaon. I will certainly update this and think about it constantly, and let you know if someone makes a major move.
Based on the data we have now though here's the list - I will post in fives - so your eyes are not strained.
15-20 coming up momentarily.
Top 20 RBs Forward COMING SOON I SWEAR
Just got sucked into a loooooooong conversation with my very nice but chatty landlord. As such I am a few minutes behind on my write-up of the first 5 RBs.
It will come soon, just wanted to let you know about the delay since on the show I said it would be here by now.
But you know - gotta be nice with the landlords.
It will come soon, just wanted to let you know about the delay since on the show I said it would be here by now.
But you know - gotta be nice with the landlords.
Wednesday, October 8, 2008
2008 - the year of the fantasy rookie
While finishing up the top RB by Strength of Schedule article - which we will talk about tonight on the Thundering Blurb Fantasy Football Show - I noticed something about the RB list I had made.
There were tons of rookies on it. And it isn't just RBs.
When we look back at this year in fantasy football, along with the underproduction and injury plague that has again befallen a portion of the top 10, we may see this as a unique year where a huge portion of rookies at all positions put up stellar numbers.
Whether it be the growing list of rookie RBs who have graced us with exceptional numbers or the very rare wide receiver rookie who has been fairly playable this year, it's definitely been bonus time for many owners who grabbed one of the rooks late in the draft or quickly off the waiver wire.
Steve Slaton, Felix Jones, Matt Forte, DeSean Jackson and to a lesser extent Eddie Royal, Jonathan Stewart, Darren McFadden - all have been more than playable on a regular basis.
Oh and that Matt Ryan fellow does all right down in atlanta, huh? Playable Rookie Qbs - almost as rare as playable rookie WRs.
And by playable, I don't mean they are merely warm bodies for an emergency. No, depending on the league, these guys are playable weekly. Heck in the Fantasy Sportswriters Association league, I can roll out Matt Forte and know each week I am getting great production.
And while Matt Ryan isn't a top 10 QB, he's already in the top 20 in many leagues and is a perfectly legit option in a QBBC. Hell, this year he's been better than guys like Pennington and Carson Palmer while not far behind Peyton Manning and Jake Delhomme.
While Palmer and Manning are certainly having off years, it does point to how research and paying attention to the NFL draft and preseason can pay off.
Matt Forte is a top 5 back in many leagues. Steve Slaton and Chris Johnson haunt the top 10.
How valuable is it to have either of those guys? How much more if you drafted both? In more than one league I took Forte in the 5-8 rounds and then grabbed Slaton very late. It's worked out hasn't it?
We had an inkling that Forte might be worth rostering. He was the sole back in Chicago. They needed to run. Seemed to make sense. That he has turned out to be the immense talent they hope Cedric Benson would be but never was is a shock, but looking at some of the predraft rankings on sites like DraftCountdown.com and the postdraft reactions of guys like Sigmund Bloom at Draftguys.com, you could see he might be something to watch.
But even those of us who pour over tape all off-season have been caught short when it comes to Forte's production.
What does this mean? Is it time to start seriously looking at more rookies than just the odd Adrian Peterson?
It's a fair question. Why has this crop been so productive?
Injury has allowed some players to step up early. In the case of the RBs, we're talking about an unusually talented crop of guys - one of the reason RBs were not being mocked as going early in the NFL draft to teams that needed them (aside from McFadden, Stewart and Mendenhall) is that the RB class was talented and deep. While more Rbs went in the first than was expected (Chris Johnson was a surprise, Felix Jones not as much), many teams waited a round or two and grabbed guys late. These guys had talent, but many fantasy owners looked past them and their situations because 'he got grabbed in the 3rd - he must not be very good'.
A big mistake in many cases. Draft position, as we know, isn't everything.
The dual back system has also helped these guys. Years ago (not even that many), Felix Jones would never have seen any carries unless Mario Barber got hurt. Just wouldn't have happened. But now, teams are willing run out more than one back - sometimes in the same backfield, but at least more often than just to spell a tired stud.
Matt Ryan stepped into a situation that looked bad but wasn't as bad as we feared. They tried to improve the oline. They had a very good running back tandem to take the pressure off him. They knew they had to protect their franchise QB and they did. Also, turns out the WRs weren't as bad when someone could hit them consistently with a pass.
It's very rare for a QB to shine as a rookie. More often than not, if they are in the game their first year, it's because the team is desperate. It has huge holes. They cannot be protected. Ryan is in the perfect situation. It may be hard to repeat.
What we will need to do throughout the season and after it is over, is look at each of these guys in turn and breaking down how they did what they did. Was it opportunity due to injury as with DeSean Jackson? Was it a misjudged oline and an instant starting shot, like Forte? Were they just far better than we knew - like Slaton?
Things to watch as we move into and past Week 6. For sure, we'll all be paying very close attention to these guys and those that follow in the coming years.
There were tons of rookies on it. And it isn't just RBs.
When we look back at this year in fantasy football, along with the underproduction and injury plague that has again befallen a portion of the top 10, we may see this as a unique year where a huge portion of rookies at all positions put up stellar numbers.
Whether it be the growing list of rookie RBs who have graced us with exceptional numbers or the very rare wide receiver rookie who has been fairly playable this year, it's definitely been bonus time for many owners who grabbed one of the rooks late in the draft or quickly off the waiver wire.
Steve Slaton, Felix Jones, Matt Forte, DeSean Jackson and to a lesser extent Eddie Royal, Jonathan Stewart, Darren McFadden - all have been more than playable on a regular basis.
Oh and that Matt Ryan fellow does all right down in atlanta, huh? Playable Rookie Qbs - almost as rare as playable rookie WRs.
And by playable, I don't mean they are merely warm bodies for an emergency. No, depending on the league, these guys are playable weekly. Heck in the Fantasy Sportswriters Association league, I can roll out Matt Forte and know each week I am getting great production.
And while Matt Ryan isn't a top 10 QB, he's already in the top 20 in many leagues and is a perfectly legit option in a QBBC. Hell, this year he's been better than guys like Pennington and Carson Palmer while not far behind Peyton Manning and Jake Delhomme.
While Palmer and Manning are certainly having off years, it does point to how research and paying attention to the NFL draft and preseason can pay off.
Matt Forte is a top 5 back in many leagues. Steve Slaton and Chris Johnson haunt the top 10.
How valuable is it to have either of those guys? How much more if you drafted both? In more than one league I took Forte in the 5-8 rounds and then grabbed Slaton very late. It's worked out hasn't it?
We had an inkling that Forte might be worth rostering. He was the sole back in Chicago. They needed to run. Seemed to make sense. That he has turned out to be the immense talent they hope Cedric Benson would be but never was is a shock, but looking at some of the predraft rankings on sites like DraftCountdown.com and the postdraft reactions of guys like Sigmund Bloom at Draftguys.com, you could see he might be something to watch.
But even those of us who pour over tape all off-season have been caught short when it comes to Forte's production.
What does this mean? Is it time to start seriously looking at more rookies than just the odd Adrian Peterson?
It's a fair question. Why has this crop been so productive?
Injury has allowed some players to step up early. In the case of the RBs, we're talking about an unusually talented crop of guys - one of the reason RBs were not being mocked as going early in the NFL draft to teams that needed them (aside from McFadden, Stewart and Mendenhall) is that the RB class was talented and deep. While more Rbs went in the first than was expected (Chris Johnson was a surprise, Felix Jones not as much), many teams waited a round or two and grabbed guys late. These guys had talent, but many fantasy owners looked past them and their situations because 'he got grabbed in the 3rd - he must not be very good'.
A big mistake in many cases. Draft position, as we know, isn't everything.
The dual back system has also helped these guys. Years ago (not even that many), Felix Jones would never have seen any carries unless Mario Barber got hurt. Just wouldn't have happened. But now, teams are willing run out more than one back - sometimes in the same backfield, but at least more often than just to spell a tired stud.
Matt Ryan stepped into a situation that looked bad but wasn't as bad as we feared. They tried to improve the oline. They had a very good running back tandem to take the pressure off him. They knew they had to protect their franchise QB and they did. Also, turns out the WRs weren't as bad when someone could hit them consistently with a pass.
It's very rare for a QB to shine as a rookie. More often than not, if they are in the game their first year, it's because the team is desperate. It has huge holes. They cannot be protected. Ryan is in the perfect situation. It may be hard to repeat.
What we will need to do throughout the season and after it is over, is look at each of these guys in turn and breaking down how they did what they did. Was it opportunity due to injury as with DeSean Jackson? Was it a misjudged oline and an instant starting shot, like Forte? Were they just far better than we knew - like Slaton?
Things to watch as we move into and past Week 6. For sure, we'll all be paying very close attention to these guys and those that follow in the coming years.
Tuesday, October 7, 2008
Pac 10 Review up
Monday, October 6, 2008
Westbrook Week 6 Status in doubt
Hey folks,
Thins morning on The Daily Stampede I mentioned Eagle RB Brian Westbrook's chest injury and reported his ribs were fractured. According to philadelphiaeagles.com , it's not even that pleasant. Apparently his ribs aren't fractured - they're broken and Coach Andy Reid seems to feel his Week 6 is now in doubt.
As much as I love Westbrook and what he can do for your fantasy lineup, I hope they rule him out early this week. The Eagles really need a win against San Fran in week 6 though, so I doubt we'll be that lucky. They will do all they can to get one of their best weapons in the game.
We saw the offense was much better with Westy than without.
will keep you posted.
Thins morning on The Daily Stampede I mentioned Eagle RB Brian Westbrook's chest injury and reported his ribs were fractured. According to philadelphiaeagles.com , it's not even that pleasant. Apparently his ribs aren't fractured - they're broken and Coach Andy Reid seems to feel his Week 6 is now in doubt.
As much as I love Westbrook and what he can do for your fantasy lineup, I hope they rule him out early this week. The Eagles really need a win against San Fran in week 6 though, so I doubt we'll be that lucky. They will do all they can to get one of their best weapons in the game.
We saw the offense was much better with Westy than without.
will keep you posted.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
