Running Back Blurb Breakdown: Steve Slaton

Slaton is another back who people are either very high on or very wary of.

Questions about him are many: Is he too small to carry the load (ala Maurice Jones-Drew)? Will he lose carries to a second back (ala Joseph Addai)? Will he have issues if (maybe when) quarterback Matt Schaub or wide receiver Andre Johnson go down?

Let's take a look at these very valid concerns and see if they hold up and if so (or if not), what that truly means.

First of all, size. While I have been researching an article on Jones-Drew, I've taken a hard look at the sizes and weights of many NFL running backs. Slaton is a tad on the short side, although at 5'-9 I still think that's not a huge concern.

What might be a concern is his weight. Slaton rolls in as a trim (maybe slight is a better term) 203 pounds. While he isn't Darren Sproles (5-6, 181lbs!) the thin frame is worrisome.

Even Slaton knew this - that's why he added about nine pounds of muscle to help with the pounding. That pulls him closer to some of the slightly taller backs (in the 5-10 to 5-11 range) and help him with his short yardage work.

Now, as we're concerned with size, it would stand to reason the Texans would be as well. But they didn't bring in a power back to cut into Slaton's carries at all. In fact, the backs behind him consist of a fragile runner, an underperforming back who runs like Slaton, a pair of rookies and a perennial camp body.

Not really a group striking fear into Slaton's heart. Of them, most likely to succeed in any way is rookie Arian Foster, who impressed in OTAs and at 6-1, 225 pounds can fulfill the power back role. This might harm Slaton's overall touchdown total as an awful lot of his TDs were short yardage - four were a yard or less and a fifth was just two yards.

Two thoughts - one, Slaton sure seemed to be ok going short yardage and not only was he effective on the goal line, but he played well getting first downs. Could it be that Houston didn't acquire a full-on short yardage back because they believe Slaton can do it, with Brown (or now Foster) spelling him?

Alternatively, you have to be concerned that if he does loose his goal-line attempts, his touchdown totals are decimated.

Slaton did have about seven 40+ runs, though, including one over 71 yards which resulted in a touchdown. He can break away from tacklers and if the offense is more consistent, that could offset any loss in the short yardage game.

Still, most of his ten touchdowns were short yardage. So it definitely could be a problem.

Finally, there is the concern that if Johnson or Schaub goes down with an injury, Slaton could face too many defenses selling out to stop him.

Well, with Schaub on the bench injured and Sage Rosenfels striking fear into the hearts of nobody, Slaton performed pretty well for the most part last season.

While the depth behind Schaub is even more shaky this year (Dan Orlovsky and Rex Grossman - WOO HOO!), I still expect Slaton to play as well as he did last year and with another year under his belt, have the potential to be even better.

Overall, Slaton ran the ball well throughout the 2008 season. He had some good games against good run defenses (Minnesota), some ok run defenses (Jacksonville) and some bad run defenses (Detroit, Green Bay & Indianapolis).

He also had some disappointing games against poor run defenses (Cleveland) and some great run defenses (Pittsburgh, Miami, Baltimore). That's to be expected from a rookie. This year he needs a little more consistency before he is considered a true stud.

Overall, I like Slaton quite a bit this year.

I think he will not lose much in the way of carries or targets and has already said he feels like he knows what his coaches want and how to achieve it. I think he has no more or less questions than any back in front or behind him, has no real challengers for carries and I believe the offensive line has continued to improve over time.

His questions are very real, however, and must be considered when drafting him.

If Slaton stays healthy and the offense plays well, he has the opportunity to not only crack the top ten again, but potentially the top five as well.

The risk is; with just one season to look over we don't know if last year was the rule - or the exception.

And that risk will keep him from the top of a lot of people's Fantasy Draft boards.

Running Back Blurb Breakdown: DeAngelo Williams

DeAngelo Williams

How can I NOT have him earlier will be the cry - and it doesn't matter where he ranks. If it isn't top 3, it won't matter. Some folks will be bent out of shape.

Those cries have a case - Williams finally exploded last season and Carolina Head Coach John Fox loves his veterans - usually to the point of benching a more talented rookie.

He might not even have to even make that choice this year as Williams seems to be poised for potentially another great season while second year RB Jonathan Stewart hasn’t stepped up yet to become lead back. And wow is that offensive line adept at opening holes for Panther backs to run through.

Yet even though the offense runs the ball a lot (504 attempts last season) will they duplicate the amount of carries from 2008 in 2009?

Stewart pitched in with 10 touchdowns and even while battling an early injury he played well last season. Rookie Mike Goodson might see some work too. As much as they do run there still should be plenty to go around but it also means they will need to spell Williams. How much? And if they don't will he burn out after two heavy carry seasons?

Finally, we have to wonder: was what we saw last year the reality - or a one shot deal? Will he be able to repeat his 2008 performance? We've had one year wonders before - and many teams who grabbed them too early in the first regretted it later in the season.

I like Williams, don't get me wrong. But I'm not sure I like him enough to take him with a top five pick like many are suggesting.

Running Back Blurb Breakdown: Maurice Jones-Drew

Maurice Jones-Drew
One of the most divisive backs in fantasy right now, Maurice Jones-Drew is a fantastic athlete whose strength and speed belies his size.

But questions still plague him.

He’s never carried the rock as the feature back, not even in college. And as much as he is tough, will he wear down if the Titans do use him as the bell cow? Or conversely, will they spell him a bunch with Greg Jones and Rashard Jennings?

MJD should put up nice numbers, especially in a PPR league but he’s going as the second – in some cases FIRST – Rb off the board in some drafts.

I haven’t even gotten to the revamped offensive line, though I think it will be healthy and capable this season. But they'll be rolling out a pair of rookies and while some of that could be merely for depth, they really collapsed fast in 2008.

In their defense, you can't have what they went through happen and not collapse. Once Richard Collier was shot and paralyzed, the fact they even pulled it together when they did is pretty gutty.

The passing attack appears to also be a big question mark at first glance. But Tory Holt alone is better than anyone on the roster last year, save the departed Matt Jones. And the two draft picks of Jake Dillard and Mike Thomas have looked good enough in tees and shorts to allow Dennis Northcutt to be traded.

Still, Garrard seemed to plateau last season and if he cannot get a little more going on, MJD might start finding his running lanes clogged.

While I think Jones-Drew has the talent, there are many questions I have about him. To many to take him earlier than where he is at five.

Running Back Blurb Breakdown: Ladainian Tomlinson

CURVE BALL. Instead of the number three back, I pull out old LT2 who I think is NOT dead yet.

Here's why:

Ladainian Tomlinson
I always love movies where some guy is counted out - be it in the boxing ring, a classroom, a board room - the comeback story is a favorite.

Maybe that's why I'm higher on LT than many others. I think Tomlinson has another year - at least - in him and will put up solid numbers this year.

By all reports he's healthy, so he won't be starting the season banged up as he did last year. Now staying healthy - that's the trick and at LT's age, it might be no mean feat. Also a question is the play of the offensive line, which was borderline criminal last season and left LT, Darren Sproles and Phillip Rivers exposed to mad abuse.

That certainly didn't help Tomlinson's numbers.

A lack of a pure blocking fullback hurt as well. That also remains a question mark though Jacob Hester's blocking improved as last season wore on.

Still I believe LT has at least one last hurrah in him and in fact will benefit in getting spelled for some carries by Sproles. He's on the mat, bruised and battered by the pundits and I think the story ends with him getting up one last time and sending those pundits to the mat.

Running Back Blurb Breakdown: Michael Turner

Michael Turner
Turner is a good news/bad news guy.

Good News: Tony Gonzalez is here to stretch the defense and add his skills for third downs.

Bad News: Tony Gonzalez is here to steal red zone TDs and third down yardage.

In other (potential) bad news, you also have to assume he won’t repeat the 377 carries which could dip his numbers. If they try to run him that often again, I would worry about burn-out and injury.

Some of that depends upon how he spent his off-season. If he got some rest while working to stay in shape, he should be good to go. But if he pushed too hard and didn't give his body time to recover, last season may hurt him a bit.

Still in a non-ppr league, he’ll put up great numbers. He drops in a PPR league, though as he gets no catches. Don't believe me? Last season he hit his career total – of 6.

He’s still a top back, but in point per reception leagues he won’t put up quite the numbers Jackson or a few other backs would.

But in standard scoring leagues, Turner is a solid bet to end up in the top five.

Running Back Blurb Breakdown: Adrian Peterson

So while I said I wouldn't be doing this numerically, I'd be hard pressed to start anywhere than with this guy.

Adrian Peterson
What’s not to like about Peterson? Good runner, great offensive line, decent WRs. All he needs is a few more TDs. Peterson has few minuses and now it looks like Brett Favre will be throwing the ball, in which case suddenly he gets someone who can keep the defenses from stacking against the run. Even Taylor isn’t too much of a threat for AP.

Safe and dependable, you know Peterson will finish in the top 5 every year. He has had some fumble issues he needs to work on and on occasion Childress has almost appeared to underuse him - but honestly these are minor details. Even a few carries to rookie receiver Percy Harvin won't hurt Peterson all that much. Aside from injury - and you can't predict that with real confidence - Peterson is the bottom line, safest running back in your fantasy draft.

2009 NFL Running Back Battles to Watch: Part 2

Welcome to part two of the 2009 NFL Running Back Battles To Watch. Yesterday we looked at a bunch of great backs including - but not limited to - the Denver Broncos, Indianapolis Colts and the Carolina Panthers.

Today we'll be looking at some more interesting backfield situations and seeing what they might mean for their respective teams.

We'll start off with a team that has a clear-cut number one back but also some questions as to what to do if he cannot carry the full load over the course of the 2009 season.

Jacksonville
We all think Maurice Jones-Drew aka 'The Human Bowling Ball' aka 'The Bad Little Man' will be the bell cow here and get most if not all the work. The man can do it all and despite his size, usually stays healthy. With no Fred Taylor, he should get every carry Freddy used to get, right?

Well, yes and no. While MJD is a stud and the offensive line is much healthier and better than 2008's version, the Jaguars will by no means risk burning out Jones-Drew before the playoffs. I expect one of the backs behind him to get a fair share of carries as well.

Note that I am not saying they will cut significantly into his totes - but that it will factor in and probably in a good way.

Former USC tailback Chauncey Washington patiently waited for his shot, but now has to hold off former Liberty stud Rashad Jennings a guy who improbably fell to the Jags in the seventh round - something I still can't figure out.

Both players have the ability to fill in for MJD but despite being a USC Homer, I like Jennings better. He can catch, he can slide into holes but he has decent size. Matt Waldman of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio and footballguys.com said it best; 'what you should know about Jennings is that he's a bigger back with finesse'.

That size combined with the skills Waldman alludes to make him a very attractive compliment to Jones-Drew and a guy to watch for long term on his own as well.

Jennings has some issues finishing a run and will need to improve that if he wants to catch Washington.

And lest we forget, Greg Jones has been occasionally stud-like when he has had a shot in the past and is a great 3rd down back. Jones has never quite been the same since a knee injury and is often hurt.

Who ends up spelling MJD could have some real value for fantasy owners and Jags fans. It should be a horse race between these three.

New Orleans
Will Reggie Bush stay healthy? Will Pierre Thomas? Who gets the ball on third downs and at the goal line?

Big questions for an offense which needs to improve it's run game to take some pressure off the pass game. It looks like Thomas has the between-the-tackles work locked down while Bush will continue to play scat-back.

But both have some injury questions (Bush his legs and Thomas' wrist) so the Saints have journeyman Mike Bell, second year player Lynell Hamilton, and undrafted free agents P.J. Hill and Herb Donaldson.

Mike Bell has played well in camp so far but don't discount the rookies. The Saints went hard into the street free agent market post-draft so they clearly have some concerns with the tailback position.

Bell has played well before and then faltered. Hill has some serious character concerns but seems to realize he screwed up and is motivated to prove he has the ability and maturity to make an impact. All three are big backs, something the Saints lost when they let Deuce McAllister go.

It will be interesting to see if any can make ground on Thomas and given the injury issues (for both Thomas and Bush) and Thomas' size, one of these guys could see action this season.

Philadelphia
With Brian Westbrook banged up again (What? Stop lying Garda! NEVER!) every Eagles fan - and many, MANY fantasy football owners - want to know who to grab for this year's version of Westbrook Insurance.

Aside: Should Westbrook and/or the Iggles talk to Geico about a sponsorship? I mean, in these troubled economic times, shouldn't a club be looking for cash wherever they can?

I'm not saying, but I am just saying is all.

But all shenanigans aside who backs Westy up resonates hard an long amongst the NFL community of fans and it goes beyond fantasy football folks. As much as I like the receivers and the passing offense this year, they need the run game hitting on all cylinders.

With the very real possibility that the last two years of 15 games might have been an illusion in terms Westy's health the Eagles need to know they can throw another guy in there and crank out the yards effectively.

Which leaves you with this question: LeSean McCoy or Lorenzo Booker?

Booker was a guy who I had high hopes for coming to Philadelphia last season after being virtually ignored by Miami previously. With his ability to catch the ball and his general shifty running style, I thought Lo-Book was going to get some traction finally but sadly that didn't happen.

Booker barely saw the field and then the team went and drafted LeSean 'Shady' McCoy who is plays very similarly to Westbrook's game. And while a tad undersized, McCoy plays tough and isn't afraid of contact.

It will be a battle in the most literal sense and no other fracas may impact the whole offense of a team like this one. If they cannot move the ball on the ground - and lack a player at the RB spot who can catch the ball as effectively as Westy - defenses could key heavily on the pass game.

San Francisco
I spent a lot of time the past few months looking oer the 49ers and there are a ton of questions surrounding this run game and what it could be.

New offensive coordinator Jimmy Raye keeps saying this will not be a run heavy playbook, but if you look at his resume, he's definitely developed some very strong rushing attacks. So does that mean Raye is tossing some disinformation out there?

Maybe not.

The 49ers often run a game where a strong rushing attack sets up a vertical passing attack. It hasn't worked well for many reasons - not the least of which is the lack of a permanent solution at quarterback.

So it isn't far fetched that Raye is being truthful - a rarity in today's NFL it seems. With the weapons at both running back and wide receiver, the Niners are set up to have an effective attack from either direction.

We know Frank Gore is the stud-bell cow-big dawg-whatever you call it in the backfield. But he cannot do it alone as we saw when he wore down last season.

So who is the backup who could share in his carries? A great question as the backs behind him all have questions.

Michael Robinson has functioned more as a fullback and special-teamer and while Thomas Clayton tends to shine in preseason games, he hasn't played worth a tinker's damn during the season. Neither of them have quite been able to give the team a consistent and safe backup to Gore in the past few years.

Two rookies - third round pick Glenn Coffee and street free agent Kory Sheets - have a shot at spelling Gore. Coffee is a solid one cut runner with great vision, who can aggressively attack the hole. He’s a powerful runner who could help the short yardage game, something that occasionally struggled in 2008.

Sheets has great acceleration and burst and is a very good receiver out of the backfield. He can be very elusive and shows patience behind the line with good vision and instincts. I think he could emerge as a nice compliment to Gore in the vein of a Leon Washington or Reggie Bush.

Adding Sheets as an extra weapon is nice, but ultimately the 49ers need to get someone to consistently and reliably spell Gore to save him for a potential run at a playoff spot this year.

Seattle
Somehow the Seahawks ended the draft without a replacement for the long departed Shaun Alexander, instead relying on Julius Jones and TJ Duckett for a solution at the running back position.

I can't say I am enthusiastic about that, however I am cautiously optimistic.

With a healthy pass game - which they lacked from the get-go last season - the Hawks could find themselves in possession of a consistent though not spectacular rushing attack.

Julius Jones has shown some skills in the past and will probably make a good two-down runner for the team, getting a lift from a new zone-blocking scheme which he fits into well. However, even though he was the top running back for Seattle last season, he was pretty inconsistent and has to correct that if the team is to depend upon him.

People keep talking each season about how this is TJ Duckett's time to shine, but I haven't heard a lot of that yet this off-season. Maybe that bodes well for the former Falcon/Redskin/Lion. He has always possessed a nose for the end zone and he'll get most of the redzone/end zone looks in my opinion - at least when the team isn't throwing the ball to Houshmandzadeh or second year tight end John Carlson.

The question - aside from will Edgerrin James or Duece McAllister sign prior to the season - I am asking is where do guys like Justin Forsett end up? If Duckett is more suited to the short yardage/goal line role, will Forsett a second year man out of California, end up as Jones' backup? Or will he be relegated to special teams?

I want to watch this battle closely as teams all know the Seahawks are gearing up to throw the ball a lot. So who ends up running the ball is of paramount importance. If they cannot move the ball on the ground, the wide receivers may find it very tough to get room to work in the secondary.

That's it for now - if you don't hear from me in a few days, have someone send a cop to check on me. I might be buried under an avalanche of moving boxes.

Running Back Camp Battles to Watch Part 1

While OTA's are winding/have wound down, the NFL does not sleep. While the players get what passes for a vacation, media does not, especially since Brett Favre can't make up his damned mind.

In perfect universal symmetry, neither can the Vikings. Marriage made in heaven or hell? We'll find out soon enough.

In order to get you prepped for tons of footbally goodness at the end of July, I've decided to break down some of the more interesting running back battles to watch in July and August.

This is what happens when you drive cross country folks. You fill time.

This is also not to say that there won't be battles we don't see as important now, emerging down the pike as intriguing. But for now, these are ones that stand out as important immediately.

Without further ado (or more ado than usual at least) here are the Training Camp Battles to Watch: Running Backs.

Carolina: There is a ton of assumption going on here after DeAngelo Williams went off in 2008. We know John Fox loves to hang with his long term vets and you have to figure Williams earned some consideration. Still, Jonathan Stewart was able to score 10 TDs even with Williams numbers, so Fox is willing to work him in. Where this gets interesting is behind Stewart with Mike Goodson.

Stewart has been hurt during Mini's and OTA's and Goodson is a guy the team wants involved. Why does this matter? Because if Goodson gets a shot to shine and does so, this could become a three headed monster which might be great for Panther fans, though hurt the overall numbers of all three guys. Carolina runs a ton (504 pass attempts versus 414 passing according to footballguys.com) so there could be work for all, but that might be offset a tad by three running backs.

Baltimore: Will last year's Thundering Blurb Mr. Glass Award Winner (TM) Willis McGahee, ever be healthy? My guess is no, sure as heck not coming off of two off-season surgeries. Both his knee (the one that has been hurt since.... um.... 1942?) and his ankle went under the knife. Stick a fork in him (or a scalpel), the man is DONE. The Ravens may not agree and we'll get a sense of that in Training Camp. That could mean the start of the Ray Rice Ruckus (also (TM)).

Rice showed some skills last season when he was healthy and should get a ton of the carries. He won't do it alone, however and whether the teams sticks with rookie Cedric Peerman, moves Le'Ron McClain back from fullback (where he went during OTA's) or adds some work for Jalen Parmele. How the backs behind Rice shake out could impact his numbers very sigificantly.

Buffalo: With Marshawn Lynch suspended the first few games of the season, Fred Jackson will get his time to shine again. Jackson looked great in limited (sometimes not-so-limited) action last season. But the Bills acquired journeyman Dominic Rhodes this offseason to protect themselves and he'll duke it out for lead bell cow while 'Dis Muh Son' Lynch is in Goodell's pokey.

This battle, mostly between Jackson and Rhodes is critical because whomever wins the top spot might not relinquish it when Lynch comes back and could factor in with what the Bills do with the troubled back long term if he can't get his head straight.

Cincinnati: I know the Bengals think they have some sort of hidden gem in Cedric Benson, and I'm happy for them but remain unconvinced. Benson did well behind a tragic offensive line, which will not be the case if rookie Andre Smith can get his act together. But I can't help but recall all the problems Benson had in Chicago, so I am not annointing him anything and neither should Cinci. Brian Leonard and Bernard Scott are both good short yardage backs who can catch the ball and could make some noise.

Scott will have to overcome some maturity issues and they will both have to shine in camp to wrest carries away from Benson. That's completely possible in my opinion so I will be interested to watch this camp closely.

Denver: There are three sure things in football right now - Brett Favre will be considering and waffling about a comeback in the spring and early summer, the Raiders will make decisions based on logic only they can comprehend and the Broncos running back situation will be a cloudy mess.

But have we lost one of those sure things? Surprising everyone in this April's Draft, the Donks took Knowshon Moreno, the talented back from Georgia and the interwubs is all a-twitter (or all twittering) about Moreno carrying the whole load.

For sure, he can do it all - block, run, catch. But will Head Coach Josh McDaniels truly rely on one back? His former team, the Patriots, didn't. Of course, you can argue they lacked a back like Moreno.

All I know is Moreno has the ability to do it. But with recent additions Correll Buckhalter, Lamont Jordan and Darius Walker, along with impressive 2008 rookie Peyton Hillis, this is a camp battle you have to watch. Considering they no longer have Jay Cutler slinging the ball, the run game is of paramount importance this year.

Indianapolis: It wasn't that long ago that Joseph Addai was the answer in Colt-land at running back. A few injury-plagued seasons later, Donald Brown is drafted and Addai is poised to lose most of his carries.

Brown can do pretty much everything Addai can do, and might have the size to stay healthy as well. Most analysts feel it is only a matter of time before Brown takes over the higher percentage of carries in this obvious running-back-by-committee.

What I want to know is, what percentage does he start the season off with? A good camp by Brown could give him a large role in this prolific offense.

That's it for today's installment. I'll be back tomorrow with a look at some more teams, including who might be backing up MJD in Jacksonville, what Philadelphia is looking at if Westbrook stays hurt and who will be the top dog in the mess that is the Seahawks' run game.

Fantasy Rookies 2009: The Running Backs

What's not to like about running backs? I could chat about - and on occasion - with them for hours and never get bored.

In so far as fantasy impact, the running backs coming out of college have less of a learning curve than the quarterbacks and wide receivers.

As I said last time, I don't expect many Steve Slaton's here. Guys who could surprise because you don't know who they are. There are a ton of backs to like overall though and long term, some real potential.

We start off with a trio of backs with the best chance to have an impact immediately.

Knowshon Moreno, RB, DEN
While a gasp inducing pick for many – myself included – Moreno has an excellent blend of talent and opportunity. I don’t foresee most of the guys behind him taking too many carries away if he has a good camp.

Buckhalter and Jordan are threats but not hugely so. Moreno can do everything – hit the hole hard and run through the tackles, catch the ball out of the backfield and he can even block well. He might need to adjust his running style, which is very aggressive and might lead to too much abuse.

But in what will probably be a one cut and run rushing attack, Moreno could have significant success and get a bunch of carries. I know, historically, with DEN RB you have to be extra careful. But new coach, new offense – I think a new attitude as well.

Dynasty
Moreno should be off the board no later than three and probably will be gone in one. While the offense could struggle this year, I think he can do enough well to be on the field three downs and even in a timeshare short term, he’ll be worth a ton long term.

Redraft
He’s one of the few guys I would take to use as a consistent starter, though you have to figure flex/RB2 depending. But his upside is pretty good. He could go as anywhere between the 25th onward in a redraft and I don’t think I would blink.

Chris Wells, RB, AZ
In the conversation for top rookie RB, Wells fell into a very good situation in Arizona. Edgerrin James is gone (although you can blame some of his underproduction on lack of use) and Tim Hightower showed us he was not able to carry the full load last season.

Wells - an outstanding downhill runner with good burst, vision and top speed – has some durability concerns and isn’t a great receiver. But I think in the injury concern isn’t as bad as many fear. The lack of good receiving skills may hurt him on long third downs and that’s why he’s behind Moreno here.

He might be the better back, but he’ll be on the field one less down. But when he's on the field, he has an outstanding pass attack to keep the opposing defenses honest and that will give him good room to get to top speed and take off.

Also, he could work hard to improve his receiving game and that could make him even more dangerous.

Dynasty
Like Moreno, Wells will go in the top three of any Dynasty draft and he should. He won’t get you as many points in a PPR, so again, this is another reason he is behind Moreno. But if you are in the 1,2,3 slot in your draft, be very happy.

Redraft
Could be a guy who will go near Moreno (yes again) somewhere after RB25 and on. He has the upside to be better than that so he might go earlier than 25th back off the board, but I don’t expect Forte or Johnson here. He should be a very reliable but you can’t expect more than you would from other backs who we’re not sure about like Derrick Ward in Tampa and part timer/scoring machines like LenDale White.

Donald Brown, RB, IND
I like what Brown brings to the table – he has good hands and can catch, can make a big play even when he doesn’t have the speed to run away from defenders, has great vision and can break tackles. I don’t know what to expect from him and Addai going forward.

Unlike Moreno who I believe to get most of the carries in Denver and Wells who is just a better back than his partner Hightower, Brown is a guy who has a legit starting back next to him.

Addai’s biggest problem is injury – and Brown will get the rock enough to keep him healthy.

But I have two questions.

First, what if Addai is healthy? Do we see Addai retain 75% of the snaps? And who is getting the third down/short yardage carries? Neither Addai nor Brown are short yardage backs. So who is getting the short yardage? And if it isn’t them – well how much will that hurt their overall numbers?

Dynasty
I think long term, Brown will end up with the starting gig. It’s just a feeling as Addai is spending too much time hurt while Brown has proven (at least in college) that he can carry a full load. Brown is easily a top 5 rookie pick, but keep in mind that he may only be a part timer for you at least the first year. If you have Addai, and happen to see him drop to you, I would consider him even over the other two, since you are already invested in the Colts run game.

Redraft
Because there is so much clutter around how this RBBC split will go, Brown drops a little further down the board in a redraft – even in a PPR league. He could have tremendous numbers – but he could also be average. I would say somewhere in the neighborhood of RB35 and beyond – amongst fringers who start but are aging and seeing smaller production totals (like Jamal Lewis) and backups with upside (like Felix Jones).

After the above guys, you have upside, but players who might take time just getting onto the field.

Shonn Greene, RB, NYJ
Greene is a guy who could shoot up or drop down this list at any time. As of right now, Leon Washington and Thomas Jones are both holding out. I don’t expect that to stay the case but it brings up some important thoughts.

First, we can be pretty sure that the guy who gets paid first (Leon Washington) is the guy who will still be there down the road and the guy who isn’t (that would be Thomas Jones) won’t be.

Got a headache yet? You should, but pop some aspirin and bear with me. Long term, Jones isn’t the answer for Gang Green. It’s one of many reasons why the team leaped up a second time to get him. They know (or think they do) Jones isn’t the long term guy.

It’s why he won’t get the money he wants. And the longer he holds out, perhaps the better it is for Greene.

Greene, for his part, is a great match for the speedy, game breaking Washington (who will get some money). He’s physical, powerful with a very strong lower body, gets stronger as the game goes, fights for the last inch and always falls forward and he rarely coughs the ball up.

Paired with Washington in the backfield, Greene would help give the Jets the running game they need to control the clock the way they want and help protect their inexperience QB (whichever guy it is).

Dynasty
Greene should go somewhere in the first 10 picks – it depends upon need. I might take Stafford or Sanchez if I had ok RB depth. Crabtree should almost certainly go before him. But he will be the Jets starting running back within two years and should have worthwhile success. Jones will likely be back in camp, so Greene may not produce this year. But he will soon.

Redraft
As I said, I expect both Washington and Jones to go to training camp, which will limit Greene’s effectiveness this year. You can take a flier on him, but that means after all the starters and upside backups go – probably around RB 55-60 give or take.

If Jones holds out for even a portion of camp, I might be tempted to pull him out a little earlier. Recall how hard it was on even backs like Steven Jackson when they skip portions of camp? Jones may find himself struggling if he holds out into late August – and then Greene may get more carries. But still, mostly upside which is likely to remain untapped here for 2009.

LeSean McCoy, RB, PHI
Am sort of torn on McCoy.

On the one hand, he's a great athlete, with natural vision and instincts. He's quick, agile, and can either catch the ball well or hit the hole hard.

In short, Westbrook part 2, although that doesn't do justice to what he is capable of in my opinion.

He has his downsides - his size, ball security and not much of a blocker. But I think he could really be a big factor, save for one big minus.

That would be Westbrook. If Westy stays healthy (and I always assume a player will) how much will 'Shady' get the rock?

I think down the road, he could be Westbrooks' replacement. But if that tales two or three years, what does that mean for his owners?

Dynasty
I like McCoy a ton. If you are a Westbrook owner, I think he is a must have and around the 4-6 spot if he is there and you already have Westbrook, you grab him. It may take a few years to get his full shot, but he will and I like what I have seen so far. Even if you don't have Westbrook, he's a worthy guy to grab and will produce down the road.

Redraft
If you grab Westy in the first, you almost have to get McCoy later. The question is - WHEN? While I might take him after Greene in Dynasty, I think he's probably a slightly better bet in redraft leagues.

I know, I said I don't count on players getting hurt. But with Westy's history, better safe than sorry. I grab him maybe around RB 50 - around the time guys like Jerrious Norwood go. A part timer who could put up ok numbers and has a shot if someone gets hurt.

Rashard Jennings, RB, JAX
Man, I still boggle at how Jennings got overlooked. Maybe it was the small school. Maybe it was bouncing around between Pitt and Liberty.

Whatever, Jennings dropped into the laps of the Jags and they have to be happy.

Athletic, strong and powerful, but with decent speed for the size. He can move the chains and could be a huge factor in a short yardage game.

I think he could pair up well with Maurice Jones-Drew and can both block for MJD, as well as sub for him. And as he can catch AND run, not too much of a step back from a strategy standpoint.

How much he will play is a question mark, but here is a guy who can rocket up this ranking in short order this summer.

On top of what I wrote, this is a good character guy. Why did he leave Pitt for the small program at Liberty? he went to be nearer to his

Dynasty
I think this is a guy you have to think about no later than second round in a rookie draft. There are issues, and I don't know if he will win enough of the load to impact immediately, but I think the skillset and ability fit well with the Jags.

And with a newly shored up OLINE? Dang.

Redraft
Jennings is a guy who will be hard to decide on until I know it's him and not Washington or Greg Jones as the #2 behind MJD. Whomever is that guy will have value somewhere in the neighborhood of RB 50-60. If not, you can count Jennings as not worth drafting - this season.

Andre Brown, RB, NYG
I have heard conflicting evaluation on Brown. I have heard he will step right in for the departed Derrick Ward. I have heard him called a project and that Danny Ward will be the 'Wind'.

I think Brown is probably in the middle.

He's got a great set of skills and should at least get into the RB rotation as a #3. Whether he can catch Bradshaw is another thing.

Brown runs with very good power, can break tackles and can also catch out of the backfield.

His downside is a lack of great speed and elusiveness, some durability concerns and isn't great at turning the corner.

Thing is, his skill-set fits very well with the rotation that the Giants. If he can stay healthy, he can probably hold off Ware - who I like, but believe does not have as much upside as Brown.

Dynasty
Brown will probably work his way more and more into the lineup but with Jacobs there for the duration, his impact might be limited, especially since he splits the carries three ways instead of two. Eventually if he is effective, you can imagine Bradshaw will be let go in free agency. But there is a chance all three will stick and that could limit his long term impact.

Redraft
I like Brown, as he will probably play this season. But that three way split makes him a little less attractive than the backs who have preceded him on this list. Jacobs is a sure thing in the run game but Bradshaw and Brown's splits are a question mark. I like him, but probably around RB60 or so and as an upside pick later in the draft.

Here are some other guys who may impact down the road or have a shot in some way this season, but by no means are they assured carries.

Javon Ringer, RB, TENN - Ringer has some durability and size questions but he is a solid runner who has something some say LenDale White lacks - an amazing work ethic and leadership. If White carps in 2009 like he did in 2008 - Ringer could take his slot. A later pick in Dynasty and a Hail Mary pick in a ReDraft though don't expect much this season.

Gartrell Johnson, RB, SD - Two years running people have said 'Oh, the Bolts have grabbed LT's replacement' but it hasn't happened yet. Johnson is a good late Dynasty pick as he could fit part of that role - a tough, aggressive runner who can block and get tough yards. But he isn't necessarily a bell-cow, but could fit well with Hester or Sproles in a two back system. Untouchable in redraft, but a mid-to-late round in a Dynasty draft.

James Davis, RB, CLE - Jamal Lewis is slowly grinding out the end of his career, though effectively, given the Oline issues. Jerome Harrison was the LAST staff's guy. And most of those last staff's guys are gone. The Clemsen back is a strong runner who can run inside, but lacks game breaking speed. Still, he'll get his shot. A good later round pick in a rookie draft, but another guy not to grab unless very late in a redraft.

Glenn Coffee/Kory Sheets, RB, SF - Both backs have question marks but someone has to help Frank Gore carry the load if this becomes a run-centric offense. Coffee could do some short yardage work which failed last year and Sheets is a fast, quick back who can catch out of the backfield. This looks like it could be a junior version of the Giants 3-headed monster. If Michael Robinson or Thomas Clayton were the answer, there wouldn't be two rookie backs in camps.

Arian Foster, RB, HOU - Steve Slaton has great value because the Texans didn't pull a running back within the draft. However, they still have questions about how he can do alone. They need a second back and Foster is an intriguing possibility. He's not incredibly fast and isn't a big play threat but he can block, shows good patience and can catch out of the backfield. He has the skills, but also some questions which make him a shaky long term (or short term) pick. But he's a guy to watch. Jeremiah Johnson is an interesting prospect as well, and is similiar to Foster. Either one can succeed as a back up to Slaton.

There are other backs worth watching - Chris Ogbonnaya with the Rams, Mike Goodson with the Panthers, Bernard Scott with Cincinnati and Cedric Peerman with Baltimore.

All those guys have some value either as backups to big backs or are in situations which are cloudy enough to give them a shot to emerge at some points.

NFL Draft: Positional Class Grades

Each season a new crop of college athletes take part in the NFL Draft Process, and every year what the overall strengths and depths of the class are will change as often as the needs of the teams doing the drafting.

This year is no exception.

In 2008, we saw a class with good overall running back talent, quicker than anticipated impact at the quarterback position and great depth at the defensive spots.

The 2009 class has its own set of advantages and strong spots, but also more than a few positions of questionable depth and talent.

When the layman looks at the Draft, they think in terms of the ‘sexy positions’. The quarterback, the running back, the high profile names on the offense. It’s where many new draftnicks and casual observers get caught up.

But once you’ve spent any time listening to any analyst or scout worth his salt, it turns out that’s not always where the value is in any given year.

This year is no different and while there is some value and depth in those skill positions, once again the most value appears to be in the trenches and on the defensive side of the ball.

Let’s take a look at the overall talent in the NFL Draft class of 2009.



Position - Quarterback
High Side - Matthew Stafford, Mark Sanchez
Low Side - Curtis Painter, Graham Harrell
Overall Grade - C+
Explanation - While I am a big fan of Stafford and Sanchez, I don’t know either would have cracked the top of last year’s class. Still, both athletes have the tools to be worthy of a top pick in 2009. Stafford solidified a high pick slot with an outstanding Pro Day showcasing his accuracy and arm strength while Sanchez will have an opportunity to prove his doubters wrong by showing off his own accuracy and allaying injury concerns on April 1st at USC’s workout. In his own tier behind them is Kansas State quarterback Josh Freeman. I’ll be honest – any other year and Freeman isn’t going in round one. His accuracy issues, streaky nature and occasional lapses in decision making worry me. Still, after Sanchez and Stafford, Freeman is the guy you want, though he’ll take more time to develop than the first two. After that – it’s personal choice. Every quarterback behind them is a big question mark and a project, so it becomes about who teams fall in love with. One team might love Pat White’s versatility, while another may love Sam Houston State QB Rhett Bomar’s huge arm and intangibles. Or a team may wait a bit and snag any number of high upside, long term projects like Fresno State’s Tom Brandstater (good short touch vs shaky deep throws), Alabama’s John Parker Wilson (great intangibles vs lack of size and arm strength) or recently hot prospect Mike Reilly from Central Washington (good short accuracy and touch vs spread offense worries). My choice for dark horse? Rudy Carpenter, Arizona State. Tough, determined and with good accuracy on the West Coast-Style slants and short passes, Carpenter played behind an atrocious offensive line, with no run game and still managed to put up very good numbers. Sure thing? Not at all. But in the right scheme? Could be very successful. But he’s indicative of the class – all upside, all projects. Few sure things. Here is where I think a smart team can make a big future impact with a pick that’s low risk, but potentially high reward. One of these guys in the right system and with patience could turn out to be another Matt Cassel - assuming people remember the patience it took over almost four years to develop him.


Position - Runningback
High Side - Knowshon Moreno, Chris Wells, LeSean McCoy
Low Side - Ian Johnson, Marlon Lucky
Overall Grade - B
Explanation - These backs don’t have the marquee value of a Peterson or a McFadden but that doesn’t mean there aren’t any solid backs here. Knowshon Moreno has great instincts and is a big, tough runner with good hands. Chris Wells is a strong runner with good burst, but injury and durability worries. UCONN running back Donald Brown is quick to the hole and had very good vision and can catch the ball well out of the backfield. Behind the big three are a ton of solid, though perhaps unspectacular running backs. It’s not to say that a guy like Pitt’s LeSean McCoy, Liberty’s Rashad Jennings or Andre Brown from North Carolina can’t have a very good and very productive careers. But none of these backs hold the excitement that the top of the line studs usually do. The class has some depth, players with defined roles versus the projects that litter the quarterback class. A guy like Jeremiah Johnson out of Oregon would make an outstanding change of pace back. While he doesn’t have elite speed and has never been a workhorse, he’s shown ability, can play in special teams and has shown good vision and patience. He may never become the bell cow, but he also shouldn’t take three years to develop into a solid player. Or a team can grab a guy like Marlon Lucky from Nebraska, a runner who has a good combination of size and speed, who can run for tough yards but doesn’t have the ability to be an every down back. He can certainly fill in – and quickly – on special teams as well as be the type of back to grind yardage out and get the hard yards. Though he will never be a home run hitter, Lucky could be another guy who can be picked late and yet still contributes early in his career. The running back class is filled with these solid, though perhaps unspectacular, backs. Because of this, a team can lay in the weeds and fill other positions of need, yet still have a shot at a quality back who can contribute in a specific role pretty quickly. While the ceiling isn’t extraordinarily high, the floor for many of these guys is pretty good.


Position - Fullback
High Side - Tony Fiametta
Low Side - Brannon Southerland
Overall Grade - C-
Explanation - Like with centers and kickers, top shelf fullbacks are few and far between and that’s why guys like Tony Richardson get the dollars he does blocking for backs like LT and Adrian Peterson. You aren’t likely to see any fullbacks go on day one, and maybe just a handful will be drafted over all. In the last nine drafts, the top fullback has been selected in the fourth round four times and the fifth round three times. The top fullback has only been pulled in the third round twice including last year when Jacob Hester went to the Chargers. And while he was the top fullback in the 2008 draft he was also the type of guy San Diego looked at as a potential full time running back. Again, it’s rare for a full blown fullback to go early. While a blocking fullback is worth his weight in gold, it’s easier to convert a running back or sign a fullback off the street. So even the top guys like Syracuse’s Tony Fiametta will be unlikely to go earlier than the middle rounds. This is not to say Fiametta isn’t a capable player. The former Orangeman is a fantastic blocker who works hard and has the versatility coaches love which allows him to block for other backs, catch the ball out of the backfield or even work special teams. It’s that flexibility which will attract teams and players like Fiametta. But many other guys have too many question marks. Georgia’s Brannan Southerland has some real conerns about his ability to stay healthy, Eric Kettani needs to fulfill his Naval service before he can play and lack experience in receiving and special teams so is limited while Jason Cook from Ole Miss is basically a blocker – and that’s all. Once you get past the top one or two players, a team might as well wait and sign these guys after the draft or look for a late round running back, see if they can develop him as a regular RB and if not, move him to fullback. Less fullbacks are being used in College football, and Pro teams are using tight ends and other players to block when necessary. As a result, this class which is thin on depth will likely see few players taken on draft weekend and perhaps even during the rookie free agency signing period.

Position - Wide Receiver
High Side - Michael Crabtree, Jeremy Maclin
Low Side - Sammie Stroughter, Tiquan Underwood
Overall Grade - B+
Explanation - A huge step up from last year and we should see a bunch of receivers pulled in the first round and over the course of the first day. There are some projects, but there are also plenty of very solid top prospects here. You can start with the names we’ve all become familiar with over the last few months. Michael Crabtree with his phenomenal size, body control, reach and outstanding ball skills. Fluid and elusive Jeremy Maclin with his ability to stretch the field and vertical ability. Darrius Heyward-Bey, Kenny Britt, Percy Harvin. All are names you’ve heard about endlessly. But this class differs from the 2008 bunch in more than just the top end players. This class has a full compliment of depth, guys who will be effective early in their career and could have long-term impact. Some, like OSU wideout Brian Robiskie seemingly emerged out of nowhere, lighting up the NFL Scouting Combine with an outstanding 40 and showing more athleticism than expected. He continued to impress at his Pro Day and is poised to get picked somewhere in the second or third rounds. Robiskie’s route running and instincts make him a player who could be ready to contribute immediately and while he may not be the next Calvin Johnson or Randy Moss, he’s a solid player and could be so for a long time to come. Slipping down a few spots to Ramses Barden, from Cal Poly. Barden has the size and strength to dominate defenders, he just needs to use it a little more confidently. And he can get yards after the catch. A little more of a project, but he can still develop into a good wide receiver and an excellent guy to move the chains or red zone target. Other guys who provide the depth on this squad are Washington State’s Brandon Gibson (experience, great hands, good routes, so-so speed, not enough separation), USC’s Patrick Turner off a great Pro Day (great routes, hands and tough attitude but not a great blocker or much of a deep threat), Quon Cosby out of Texas (athletic, quick, great ball skills, but a little older and limited separation) and Dominique Edison from Stephen F. Austin (decent speed, great hands and a good vertical threat, but not too physical nor sudden off the line) all will go second day and could carve out roles as at least #3 receivers. Even guys like the players at the bottom of my list, like Oregon State’s Sammie Stroughter and Rutgers’ Tiquan Underwood could contribute, though it might take a little longer.

Position - Tight End
High Side - Brandon Pettigrew, Jared Cook
Low Side - Ryan Purvis, Bear Pascoe
Overall Grade - B-
Explanation - There are at least 5 TEs in this class that could be impact players at the next level, but not much depth and overall it won’t dominate the draft. You may never be able to have too many wide receivers or running backs, but you don’t need that many tight ends. Also, the position plays a little different now. You want a tight end who can block AND catch, not one but able to learn the other. Pettigrew is the class of the positional group, he can run, he can block, he can catch – and he’s a tough SOB. The guys behind him are all very athletic – Jared Cook (great speed and quicks, great hands, but little blocking ability), Cornelius Ingram (great ball skills, soft hands, can go vertical, but not tough, inexperienced) and Travis Beckum (great speed, good routes, elusiveness after the catch but not bulky enough, not physical enough and there are durability issues) – but have some question marks. Still, they have the offensive skills to play for some time. The low end like Bear Pascoe (great blocker but very stiff and not fast) and Ryan Purvis (good hands, willing blocker but not fast or explosive) seem to be the flipside – blockers who might develop into full tight ends. The fact you could get production from the late rounds with guys this deep into the class is what makes this class just a bit better than average.


Position - Offensive Tackle
High Side - Jason Smith, Eugene Monroe, Andre Smith
Low Side - Garrett Reynolds, Joel Bell
Overall Grade - B+
Explanation - Once again a great crop of OTs and we could see another run on the position in the first round. The game is won in the trenches and there are a lot of fine tackles in the 2009 class, even if it isn’t quite as deep as the 2008 group. Jason Smith, Monroe, Andre Smith and Oher will be gone in the top 15 in all likelihood and you could see guys like Eben Britton out of Arizona and recently hot Phil Loadholt from Oklahoma who could sneak into the first as well. There are other good tackles behind these guys but they could go anywhere from late second to beginning of the third, guys like William Beatty (UCONN), Troy Kropog (Tulane) or Jamon Meredith (South Carolina). All have something they need to work on be it a lack of prototypical size, mobility or a lack pf perfection either in the run or pass portion of the game. But all of them will be productive. As you go further away, the projects grow more shaky but there are so many who could slip in or will get picked up immediately as a street free agent, if a team misses out on one guy, they have the possibility of grabbing a project late and spending less money, yet still seeing production.

Position - Guard
High Side - Duke Robinson, Andy Levitre
Low Side - Ryan Durand, Travis Bright
Overall Grade - B-
Explanation - A decent group, but not a ton of depth. You’ll see them go starting in the second, but there aren’t more than a dozen guys who are good bets to go. A bunch of guards will go as rookie free agents, but not much excitement. Most interesting thing I have seen is the contradicting evaluations of Greg Isdaner of West Virginia. Some rankings have him as the second or third guard. But some don’t even have him going on Draft weekend. The top of the class are definitely Oklahoma’s Duke Robinson and Oregon State’s Andy Levitre. But while maybe one slips into the first, guards don’t go early. Overall it’s a decent class but there are not a ton of guards who will go on draft day, especially when some tackles can move over to guard if they don’t work out.

Position - Center
High Side - Alex Mack, Max Unger, Eric Wood
Low Side - Cecil Newton, Dallas Reynolds
Overall Grade - C
Explanation - Top flight Centers are tough to come by, which is why Jeff Saturday just got re-signed by the Colts. You don’t let one go. This class is ok at the top, but there is a significant drop-off after that and if we hit double digits drafted, I’d be surprised. But the top of the class is pretty good. Cal’s Mack is whip-smart and incredibly flexible in what he can play – center, guard, what have you – he not only can do many things, he’s willing to. I have seen him slip a bit in some mocks, with Wood jumping in as the center taken in the first round. The Louisville center isn’t the most powerful guy and finds himself pushed around a little too much for me. But again, a smart guy who is a hard worker.

RB rankings for week 17

Thats it for now - I'm going to go collapse in bed and watch Dark Knight and drink some soup. I love colds, don't you? Maybe it's a perfect excuse to sit in bed and watch football all tomorrow!

You can email me if you wish and I will try to get back to you when I emerge from my coma!

Running backs

1. Michael Turner
2. Brian Westbrook
   
3. DeAngelo Williams
4. LaDainian Tomlinson
   
5. Adrian Peterson
   
6. Matt Forte
7. Ryan Grant
   
8. Thomas Jones
   
9. Steven Jackson
10. Tashard Choice
11. Steve Slaton
    
12. Kevin Smith
    
13. Maurice Jones-Drew
14. Maurice Morris
    
15. Willie Parker
    
16. Cedric Benson
    
17. Sammy Morris
18. Pierre Thomas/Deuce McAllister (Injury concerns for PT)
19. Warrick Dunn
20. Clinton Portis
21. Ronnie Brown
22. Larry Johnson
23. LeRon McClain
    
24. Marshawn Lynch
    
25. Darren McFadden
26. Tatum Bell
27. Fred Jackson
    
28. Frank Gore
29. Cadillac Williams
30. Derrick Ward
31. Leon Washington
    
32. Tim Hightower
33. Jamal Lewis
34. Chad Simpson
35. Justin Fargas
    
36. Jonathan Stewart
    
37. Chester Taylor
38. Ricky Williams
39. Willis McGahee
40. Mewelde Moore

RB Rankings for Week 16

Like with the Wide Receivers, I added some backs to the list for Championship week.

I know I am not remotely alone in ranking Pierre Thomas as the number one back this week. I get that. But I have to agree with the group-think this week - and I swear have had Thomas in the top three for this week since Reggie Bush went down and even prior to that I thought he was due for a big game. Now the Brees/Saints will throw for sure. But Thomas is on fire the last two weeks and looked very good with a full load against the Bears. The pass game will keep the Lions honest and this should lock a job with the Saints for Thomas in 2009.

Brian Westbrook had been torching opposing defenses until last week, where he came back down to earth neither breaking 100 total yards nor scoring a touchdown. He also lacked carries - the prior two weeks he had carried the rock more than 20 times each and he should see that number of carries and touches this week. Washington's D has fallen to pieces and have allowed 361 yards on the ground over the last the weeks.

It's about time, but Steven Jackson says he is finally ready for a breakout game. Aside from mocking him for the fact that anyone's breakout game comes in week 16, much less a vet like Jackson - I think he's got something here and is primed for a really great day and is coming off a pretty darned good performance against Seattle. It's just in time for your Fantasy Championship and he should be worth that first round pick you spent if he can win you that trophy.

Despite being fourth on the list, Adrian Peterson is driven for a rushing title and he will put forth his usual great effort again this week against a rush defense that has allowed 120 yds per game and allowed 15 TDs during the season. They played well against Tampa Bay but overall have struggled against the run the last month or so. Peterson is a must start this week and should put forth a very good start for your Championship lineup.

For a little while in the beginning of the season, Thomas Jones looked to be on his way towards another disapppointing season - but lo, and the Favre got his head around the offense and the Mangini actually chose to run the ball - and now Jones is over 1100 yards and topping 13 touchdowns for the year. He's had a TD 7 of the last 8 games - 10 of them total in fact and faces a run defense ranked 21st in the league and allowing 13 rush TDs thus far. I think Jones will be asked to run the ball a lot in order to make sure the Jets control the clock in this must win game on their last trip west.

Running Backs

1. Pierre Thomas, Saints vs. Lions
2. Brian Westbrook, Eagles at Redskins
3. Steven Jackson, Rams vs. 49ers
4. Adrian Peterson, Vikings vs. Falcons
5. Thomas Jones, Jets at Seahawks
6. Marshawn Lynch, Bills at Broncos
7. Michael Turner, Falcons at Vikings
   
8. Steve Slaton, Texans at Raiders
9. Matt Forte, Bears vs. Packers
10. Clinton Portis, Redskins vs. Eagles
11. LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers at Buccaneers
12. Ronnie Brown, Dolphins at Chiefs
13. Tashard Choice, Cowboys vs. Ravens
14. DeAngelo Williams, Panthers at Giants
15. Brandon Jacobs, Giants vs. Panthers
16. Kevin Smith, Lions vs. Saints
17. Chris Johnson, Titans vs. Steelers
18. Jamal Lewis, Browns vs. Bengals
19. Larry Johnson, Chiefs vs. Dolphins
20. Cedric Benson, Bengals at Browns
21. Ricky Williams, Dolphins at Chiefs
22. Darren McFadden, Raiders vs Texans
23. Ryan Grant, Packers at Bears
24. Cadillac Williams, Buccaneers vs. Chargers
25. Le’Ron McClain, Ravens at Cowboys
    
26. Sammy Morris, Patriots vs. Cardinals
27. P.J. Pope, Broncos vs. Bills
    
28. Maurice Morris, Seahawks vs. Jets
29. DeShaun Foster, 49ers at Rams
30. Willie Parker, Steelers at Titans
31. Jonathan Stewart, Panthers at Giants
32. Leon Washington, Jets at Seahawks
33. J.J. Arrington, Cardinals at Patriots
    
34. Chester Taylor, Vikings vs. Falcons
35. Warrick Dunn, Buccaneers vs. Chargers
36. Kevin Faulk, Patriots vs. Cardinals
37. Justin Fargas, Raiders vs. Texans
38. Tatum Bell, Broncos vs. Bills
39. Tim Hightower, Cardinals at Patriots
40. Mewelde Moore, Steelers at Titans
41. LaMont Jordan, Patriots vs. Cardinals
42. Ray Rice, Ravens at Cowboys
43. LenDale White, Titans vs. Steelers
44. Derrick Ward, Giants vs. Panthers

Top RB Performances for Week 15

Pierre Thomas 146/1 & 1 rec TD - Thomas has had two very nice games in a row and has peaked just in time to carry you to the Fantasy Championship - where he will face Detroit in one of the better matchups in Week 16. Thomas is certainly earning that permanent gig in the backfield and could seal it up this weekend.

Dominic Rhodes 116/2 - Rhodes looked like he was going to be a good play this weekend even before Addai was deactivated. With the full load, Rhodes showed he made the right decision in heading back home to Indy after the poor choice to go to Oakland. Addai is still shaky and may miss the game this week against Jacksonville. Rhodes will be a decent flex at least even if Addai plays and would bump up if Addai is out again.

Michael Turner 182/1- Turner has long put to rest the concern that he was inconsitent and struggled against better run defenses. You had to start him even against Minnesota's stout defense - and with Pat Williams out the matchup actually looks much better than it did a few days ago.

Tashard Choice 143/1- I don't even know what to make of Tashard Choice. What do you do with him against Baltimore? He's already performed against two of the top run defenses in the league in Pittsburgh and the Giants - performed being Blurb code for BLEW UP. Do you trust him going into the your championship game? It's hard for me to say he is a must start, but he has played very well TWICE against two top 5 run defenses. Can you afford to sit him?

Steven Jackson 127/1 - SJax is back! Kinda. This week. He should have a second good game against the 49rs this comign weekend. He is getting the rock and as long as he stays healthy he should be ok for this weekend, even though Singletary has the San Fran defense working pretty well.

Best of the rest -

Maurice Jones-Drew 70/1 & 1 rec- MJD should play all right against Indy, but has been shaky in terms of yard production.

Kevin Faulk 111 & 1 rec - Faulk shows his owners why he is often a solid flex option.

Darren McFadden 114/1- Darren 'Boom or Bust' McFadden booms last week - may have a decent day against Houston but you never know with the Raiders and the running backs.

Sammy Morris 117/1 - How Faulk and Morris got in on the same list is pretty intriguing and in New England that's pretty rare.

Kevin Smith 119/1 - A pretty good day against the Colts - he might look ok again versus New Orleans if Detroit doesn't abandon the run.

RB ranking update

First off, thanks to listener/reader Ron Fowler who pointed out to me that Justin Fargas was not ranked on the RB list from last night. This is what happens when you finish things late at night with Robot Chicken in the background.

My apologies. I will re update it HOWEVER I'll just lay it out here for you - and add a rerank on Tashard Choice. I would move him back to about 32/33 - the whole alleged Owens/Witten near-fight has me worried the Cowboys are imploding and Romo might pass a ton to try and placate everyone with or without Barber in. So I'm not hot on Choice - I mean even less than I was before. I know he had a good week last week. I get it. Just really worried about him this week.

I would plug Fargas in at about 30. He's good for yards against a bend but don't break run defense but as the Pats have given up only 7 TDs (4 to Ronnie Brown in one day and three the whole rest of the season) you can't depend upon getting one tomorrow. So figure between 60-80 yards (maybe a little more if the Raiders stay close) - a TD or somethign would be gravy.

Thanks again Ronald - good looking out.

RB Rankings for Week 15

Well as long as he's hot you've got to ride Brian Westbrook, especially against a defense like Cleveland's. Over the past three weeks, they've allowed over 400 yards - although to be fair, half that was to Tennessee last week. Still, this is a reeling defense and a red hot Westbrook and a firing on all cylinders McNabb should put up some very good points - through the air as well as on the ground.

Aside from the back-and-forth between Clinton Portis and Redskins coach Jon Zorn, Portis is a week healthier and has a fantastic matchup in Cinci. I think Zorn wil luse his best weapon both to grind the game away as well as make Portis happy. And Portis should have no problem against this run defense, or lack thereof.

Will LaDainianTomlinson ever get totally back on track? Not until next season when the Oline gets fixed perhaps, but the Chiefs are still a great place to get healthy - even if they have played better of late. They still give up 161 yards per game on average and have allowed 21 TDs so far. Now, LT didn't fare too well last time out (totalled over 100 yards but not by much and no TD) but he's a lot healthier and should top 100 yards with a TD.

You can't get DeAngelo Williams out of your lineup nor should you try. And don't worry about Jonathan Stewart - Williams will still get plenty of carries and there will be plenty of success to be had against the 36th rush defense in the league. The only hitch in the plan could be if the Broncs leap out to an early lead. But more than likely, the Panthers will grind out the clock in an attempt to keep the dynamic pass offense of Jay Cutler and friends off the field. Williams will be the work horse and we've seen way too much production from him lately to have him on your bench.

Adrian Peterson didn't light the Lions up the way we'd hoped he would and while the matchup doesn't get easier, he should still find plenty of success. With Tarvaris Jackson the likely QB, the Vikings will have to rely on him heavily and even against tough defenses, Peterson starts and gets yards.

Running Back

1. Brian Westbrook, Eagles vs. Browns
2. Clinton Portis, Redskins at Bengals
3. LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers at Chiefs
4. DeAngelo Williams, Panthers vs. Broncos
5. Adrian Peterson, Vikings at Cardinals
6. Michael Turner, Falcons vs. Buccaneers
7. Dominic Rhodes, Colts vs. Lions
8. Chris Johnson, Titans at Texans
9. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars vs. Packers
10. Thomas Jones, Jets vs. Bills
11. Steven Jackson, Rams vs. Seahawks
12. Ryan Grant, Packers at Jaguars
13. Steve Slaton, Texans vs. Titans
14. Marshawn Lynch, Bills at Jets
15. Jonathan Stewart, Panthers vs. Broncos
16. Derrick Ward, Giants at Cowboys
17. Ronnie Brown, Dolphins vs. 49ers
18. Kevin Smith, Lions at Colts
19. Maurice Morris, Seahawks at Rams
20. Marion Barber, Cowboys vs. Giants
21. Warrick Dunn, Buccaneers at Falcons
22. LenDale White, Titans at Texans
23. Larry Johnson, Chiefs vs. Chargers
24. Sammy Morris, Patriots at Raiders
25. Ricky Williams, Dolphins vs. 49ers
26. Jamal Lewis, Browns at Eagles
27. Willie Parker, Steelers at Ravens
28. Le’Ron McClain, Ravens vs. Steelers
29. Tashard Choice, Cowboys vs. Giants
30. Cedric Benson, Bengals vs. Redskins
31. DeShaun Foster, 49ers at Dolphins
32. Tatum Bell, Broncos at Panthers
33. Cadillac Williams, Buccaneers at Falcons
34. Kevin Faulk, Patriots at Raiders

Top Fantasy RBs of Week 14

Brian Westbrook 203/1 rush td/1rec td - Westbrook has re-emerged as a top back just in time for lead you to the fantasy promised lands - if you rolled with him this week. Westy looks like he has gotten more energy than he had in the weeks before his outburst against Arizona and so does McNabb, If they can both keep it together, Westbrook may have just heated up right when you need him most.

DeAngelo Williams 192/2 - Williams continues to be a monster fantasy starter for you and will continue to be so, no matter who he is facing. The use of Stewart may seem a tad alarming but Williams will still be the workhorse and still continue his work as your bell cow.

Jonathan Stewart 115/2 - What changed between now and the last few weeks? Is Stewart suddenly about to be thrust into a major roll in the offense? It's almost impossible to say. So much so, that you'd better be damned sure - or damned desperate - before you trot him out as anything more than a flex during your playoff run.

Chris Johnson 166/1 - The rookie continues to have excellent value again, now that he is back on track post-Lion game. I believe he's perfect for a lock in your RB2 for sure here on out.

Pierre Thomas 109/1 rush td/1 rec td - is Thomas the real deal? It sure seems like it. He has a lot to prove and a job to lose and it looks like Payton trusts him to do the job. He definitely has the look of a late year breakout and again, great timing here.

The rest -
Darren Sproles 64/2 rec TD - A big day on some garbage work and not reliable enough to start with confidence....
Reggie Bush 106/1 rec TD - Bush should be a pretty consistent start from here on out and Thomas will morel ikely help him than hurt him as it gives him a companion threat in the backfield.
Tashard Choice 166 yards - I can't trust him but he looked better than I ever expected. Certainly worth a watch - but dangerous to trust. Was it just a one time bust of points?
Ryan Grant 112/1 - Just not consistent enough but a good flex play depending upon matchup.
Maurice Jones-Drew 102/1 rec td - MJD put up some good numbers and looked pretty good - but that offense is terrifying right now.

RB Rankings for Week 14

Adrian Peterson aka Purple Jesus was kept out of the end zone last time the Lions came to town and undoubtedly they will try to keep him out again, but it won't happen. The only thing that could keep him (and #19 Chester Taylor) from having a huge day would be if the head coach pulls a 'Childress' and out-coaches himself by pulling them at weird times or trying to throw 40 times. Can't happen? Well I call it a 'Childress' for a reason. But Peterson should have a huge day, this time with a TD.

Leading candidate in my rookie of the year column Matt Forte should continue to to put up his solid numbers against the Jags, who have given up 362 rushing yards in their last 3 games. For sure you have to get him in and can ride him for the playoffs - on top of everythign else, it's getting colder and the Bears will run the ball lots.

(sidenote: I have been very impressed with a bunch of rookie olineman - yes I consider them candidates, it's a shame more don't. How impressive is it when Ryan Clady steps into a notoriously hard to grasp zone blocking scheme in Denver and starts every game?)

Chris Johnson tore up the Lions and could have done even more had the Titans decided to not risk injury (madness - don't they know there were fantasy implications?). This week he faces a swiftly disintegrating team in Cleveland. The 26th rush defense sports an impressive 141.3 ypg allowed, with 11 TDs coughed up so far. Last week they confused the Colts (just 90 yards) but that was an abberration. You can be assured that Johnson will be right behind his friend Matt Forte in total yards for rookie RBs.

Thomas Jones is back in the top five - if only he didn't get 'Childressed' by Mangini and Schottenheimer on occasion. But against the 49rs - who are playing better for Big Mike Singletary and won last week - he should do well. Despite the win last week they gave up 156 yards to the Bills, and they average 108.2 rushing yards allowed per game this year with 10 rushing TDs served up. Over the past 3 weeks, they have allowed 356 rushing yards. If only Mangini runs the ball and controls the clock as he should have done against the Broncos. I think he will this week.

While Michael Turner started off streaky, he has become very consistent and totaled 318 yards and 6TDs over the last three games. I think he'll play well againsta defense that got blowed up good by Tampa Bay last weekend. Turner has been on fire the last few weeks and the Saints are a little less than average (19th in the league) so expect Turner to continue to be rolling in what is likely week 1 in yoru fantasy playoffs.

Other thougths -
Peyton Hillis is for reals yo - start him against KC and you should be very happy....Willie Parker practiced today fully, it might snow and Big Ben might throw, but FWP should have a pretty decent game against the Cowboys - sorry Boyz..... The Rams are a good matchup, but I don't like what I have seen (or not seen) from rookie Tim Hightower, hence the lower than usually warranted spot given the matchup.... Can't stop putting DeAngelo Williams in my lineup - don't expect 4 TDs but do expect excellent production.... Marion Barber may play/may not play, I don't like the matchup anyway - so those two things give him that really bad ranking this week.... Please Lord do not start Kevin Smith - Williams boys or no. Unless you need a flex bad or have some injury issues - he's about at the end of the 35 and so he can be started - but I don't expect tons from him. He has had a decent season though - lost amongst the wreckage of this winless year....

Running backs

1. Adrian Peterson, Vikings at Lions
2. Matt Forte, Bears vs. Jaguars
3. Chris Johnson, Titans vs. Browns
4. Thomas Jones, Jets at 49ers
5. Michael Turner, Falcons at Saints
6. Peyton Hillis, Broncos vs. Chiefs
7. Brandon Jacobs, Giants vs. Eagles
8. Marshawn Lynch, Bills vs. Dolphins
9. Brian Westbrook, Eagles at Giants
10. DeAngelo Williams, Panthers vs. Buccaneers
11. Joseph Addai, Colts vs. Bengals
12. Willie Parker, Steelers vs. Cowboys
13. Steve Slaton, Texans at Packers
14. Frank Gore, 49ers vs. Jets
15. Larry Johnson, Chiefs at Broncos
16. Reggie Bush, Saints vs. Falcons
17. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars at Bears
18. Tim Hightower, Cardinals vs. Rams
19. Chester Taylor, Vikings at Lions
20. Ronnie Brown, Dolphins at Bills
21. Steven Jackson, Rams at Cardinals
22. Leon Washington, Jets at 49ers
23. Ryan Grant, Packers vs. Texans
24. LenDale White, Titans vs. Browns
25. Pierre Thomas, Saints vs. Falcons
26. Derrick Ward, Giants vs. Eagles
27. Clinton Portis, Redskins at Ravens
28. Cedric Benson, Bengals at Colts
29. Marion Barber, Cowboys at Steelers *MAY NOT PLAY*
    
30. Jamal Lewis, Browns at Titans
31. Warrick Dunn, Buccaneers at Panthers
32. Ricky Williams, Dolphins at Bills
33. Sammy Morris, Patriots at Seahawks
34. Kevin Smith, Vikings at Lions
35. Kevin Faulk, Patriots at Seahawks
    

Top Fantasy RBs of Week 13

Brian Westbrook 130/2TDs ground, 2 TDs rec - I can't say which is the real Westbrook. The one who sucked for a month + straight or the one who rocked Arizona. His matchup this week is sucky. He looked Ok, but not great last Thursday. He's still hurt. But off a 9 day layoff? Hard to bench him. Tough, tough matchup vs the Giants in playoff week 1. But can we afford to miss another big game?

DeAngelo Williams 86/4 - I cannot keep him from my lineup. In the leagues I have him in, he has just squeezed out guys like Addai, MJD (even prior to Monday night) and Ronnie Brown, not to mention guys like Larry Johnson, Willie Parker and Jamal Lewis. I don't expect 2, 3, 4 TDs and 100 + yards from him every week - it just keeps happening anyway.

Steve Slaton 182/2 - Rookie Wall, Shnookie Wall. This guy may have had his numbers pumped with 2 late TDs and garbage yards but he's IN there and not getting out. I think he is as reliable as his rookie compatriots Forte and Chris Johnson - and safer than some vets. Slaton may wear down - but when?

Thomas Jones 159/2 -The Jets stopped running him in the second half which makes this total actually pretty amazing. The Jets fell way behind and panicked, offensively speaking, constantly reaching for big plays to turn things around instantly. Jones continues to be a great start though, week to week. They need to ride him harder and while I bring the Jets up, use friggin Leon Washington more.

Chris Johnson 134/2 - I said I expected them to try and get Johnson back on track and boy-howdy. You have to love Peterson against them this week. But I digress. Johnson looks like a great start the next two weeks (Browns and Texans) but a tougher start in the Championship week vs Pittsburgh though at least it's home. Johnson should be back on track though for the next few weeks and that could get you in the Big Game.

LenDale White 106/2 - I love me some LenDale/Hey Kool-Aid White. I figured he could get a TD - maybe 2 - against the horrible Lions and he did that and more. Still, it's the Lions. Expect you have a shot at TDs, but yards? Can't trust him to get them. Browns and Texans make him tasty for the short run though.

Matt Forte 125/1 rec td - Forte keeps on trucking even when the team is behind and losing. he gets yards on the ground, through the air - however he wants it. A stud who faces the Jags, Saints and Packers. Not bad.

Peyton Hillis 129/1 - And all on the ground for Hillis against a normally studly ground defense. As bad as the Jets looked, Hillis looked very nice. Great matchup vs the Chiefs this week but only so so after, facing the Panthers and Bills. Neither great, neither terrible. But the man appears to be able to play.

Adrian Peterson 130/1 - It's a testement to the great RB performances that this looks like less of a good day than it is. Peterson looked great in the game and should look ridonkulous against the Lions, even though they shut him down last time. Still one of the best and still a fantastic back.

Larry Johnson 92/1 - HE LIVES! Larry Boy is back and he might be a viable starter the rest of the way (a RB 2 maybe or flex) seeing the Broncos, Chargers and Dolphins. Not a great run, but not bad and Larry-Boy is playing respectfully the last three weeks. He's helped by the great play of Tyler Pigpen and the offense. Never thought that was going to happen.

RB Rankings for Week 13

I certainly had Barber high on the list and Chris Johnson as a top 5 back. white was slotted near the end of the teens along with Westbrook. Both far outscored my hopes, and Westy surprised me although I didn't feel like he looked as good as his numbers did. On a short week, I didn't start him in some leagues and I back that despite the 4 TDs.

I think Tomlinson continues to get back on the horse and top 100 yards against the 21st rush D in the league which has given up 13 TDs this season. MJD is finally going to get yards AND touchdowns at the same time and as we saw last week, if the Jags can't run with him, they will throw to him. Nice to see they figured that one out finally.

Thomas Jones and Leon Washington are both playing very well and while LW is a bit of a hail mary, I think the way he has been playing, he will get some good yards a on a Broncos team letting and average of 187 yards with more than a TD.

Here's another reason I love Washington this week - the Donkeys are very vulnerable to RBs who are good receiving the ball and Washington is that. Last week was the first game in which he didn't catch at least a pair and more often than not he gets 3-4 catches. He may get some extra love from favre this week as the Jets take any advantage they can to keep pace with the (normally) dynamic Broncos offense.

Running backs

1. LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers vs. Falcons
2. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars at Texans
3. Thomas Jones, Jets vs. Broncos
4. Michael Turner, Falcons at Chargers
5. Warrick Dunn, Buccaneers vs. Saints
6. Adrian Peterson, Vikings vs. Bears
7. Joseph Addai, Colts at Browns
8. Frank Gore, 49ers at Bills
9. Marshawn Lynch, Bills vs. 49ers
10. Steve Slaton, Texans vs. Jaguars
11. Ronnie Brown, Dolphins at Rams
12. DeAngelo Williams, Panthers at Packers
13. Clinton Portis, Redskins vs. Giants
14. Leon Washington, Jets vs. Broncos
15. Brandon Jacobs, Giants at Redskins
16. Matt Forte, Bears at Vikings
17. Larry Johnson, Chiefs at Raiders
18. Jamal Lewis, Browns vs. Colts
19. Ryan Grant, Packers vs. Panthers
20. Justin Fargas, Raiders vs. Chiefs
21. Ricky Williams, Dolphins at Rams
22. Darren McFadden, Raiders vs. Chiefs
23. Derrick Ward, Giants vs Redskins
    
24. Pierre Thomas, Saints at Buccaneers
25. Peyton Hillis, Broncos at Jets
26. Willie Parker, Steelers at Patriots
27. Le’Ron McClain, Ravens at Bengals
28. Dominic Rhodes, Colts at Browns
29. Kevin Faulk, Patriots vs. Steelers
    
30. Steven Jackson, Rams vs Dolphins
    
31. Jonathan Stewart, Panthers at Packers
32. Jerious Norwood, Falcons at Chargers
33. Chester Taylor, Vikings vs. Bears
34. Cedric Benson, Ravens at Bengals
35. Antonio Pittman, Rams vs Dolphins
36. Cadillac Williams, Buccaneers vs. Saints