Running Back Blurb Breakdown: Steve Slaton

Slaton is another back who people are either very high on or very wary of.

Questions about him are many: Is he too small to carry the load (ala Maurice Jones-Drew)? Will he lose carries to a second back (ala Joseph Addai)? Will he have issues if (maybe when) quarterback Matt Schaub or wide receiver Andre Johnson go down?

Let's take a look at these very valid concerns and see if they hold up and if so (or if not), what that truly means.

First of all, size. While I have been researching an article on Jones-Drew, I've taken a hard look at the sizes and weights of many NFL running backs. Slaton is a tad on the short side, although at 5'-9 I still think that's not a huge concern.

What might be a concern is his weight. Slaton rolls in as a trim (maybe slight is a better term) 203 pounds. While he isn't Darren Sproles (5-6, 181lbs!) the thin frame is worrisome.

Even Slaton knew this - that's why he added about nine pounds of muscle to help with the pounding. That pulls him closer to some of the slightly taller backs (in the 5-10 to 5-11 range) and help him with his short yardage work.

Now, as we're concerned with size, it would stand to reason the Texans would be as well. But they didn't bring in a power back to cut into Slaton's carries at all. In fact, the backs behind him consist of a fragile runner, an underperforming back who runs like Slaton, a pair of rookies and a perennial camp body.

Not really a group striking fear into Slaton's heart. Of them, most likely to succeed in any way is rookie Arian Foster, who impressed in OTAs and at 6-1, 225 pounds can fulfill the power back role. This might harm Slaton's overall touchdown total as an awful lot of his TDs were short yardage - four were a yard or less and a fifth was just two yards.

Two thoughts - one, Slaton sure seemed to be ok going short yardage and not only was he effective on the goal line, but he played well getting first downs. Could it be that Houston didn't acquire a full-on short yardage back because they believe Slaton can do it, with Brown (or now Foster) spelling him?

Alternatively, you have to be concerned that if he does loose his goal-line attempts, his touchdown totals are decimated.

Slaton did have about seven 40+ runs, though, including one over 71 yards which resulted in a touchdown. He can break away from tacklers and if the offense is more consistent, that could offset any loss in the short yardage game.

Still, most of his ten touchdowns were short yardage. So it definitely could be a problem.

Finally, there is the concern that if Johnson or Schaub goes down with an injury, Slaton could face too many defenses selling out to stop him.

Well, with Schaub on the bench injured and Sage Rosenfels striking fear into the hearts of nobody, Slaton performed pretty well for the most part last season.

While the depth behind Schaub is even more shaky this year (Dan Orlovsky and Rex Grossman - WOO HOO!), I still expect Slaton to play as well as he did last year and with another year under his belt, have the potential to be even better.

Overall, Slaton ran the ball well throughout the 2008 season. He had some good games against good run defenses (Minnesota), some ok run defenses (Jacksonville) and some bad run defenses (Detroit, Green Bay & Indianapolis).

He also had some disappointing games against poor run defenses (Cleveland) and some great run defenses (Pittsburgh, Miami, Baltimore). That's to be expected from a rookie. This year he needs a little more consistency before he is considered a true stud.

Overall, I like Slaton quite a bit this year.

I think he will not lose much in the way of carries or targets and has already said he feels like he knows what his coaches want and how to achieve it. I think he has no more or less questions than any back in front or behind him, has no real challengers for carries and I believe the offensive line has continued to improve over time.

His questions are very real, however, and must be considered when drafting him.

If Slaton stays healthy and the offense plays well, he has the opportunity to not only crack the top ten again, but potentially the top five as well.

The risk is; with just one season to look over we don't know if last year was the rule - or the exception.

And that risk will keep him from the top of a lot of people's Fantasy Draft boards.

Fantasy Rookies 2009: The Wide Receivers (Part Two)

Welcome to part two of my look at the rookie wide receiver draft class and it's potential impact on your fantasy team.

Today we look at some players who are shakier than the first group but may have just as much long-term potential.

A few could even produce this year.

Kenny Britt, TEN
Britt is a guy with a nice combination of ability and opportunity. Britt joins a decent but no-exactly Pro Bowl group with oft-hurt Justin Gage and inconsistent vertical threat Nate Washington. With his good hands and physical play, he should be able to carve out a niche in the offense and could become a possession receiver who is Kerry Collins’ best friend next season. However, it’s not like Collins throws 100 times a game so how much productivity will he have? Britt is a fringe guy for the top 5 rookies and if he has a good camp, might be worth a late flier in a redraft. I think Dynasty-wise he’s worth a look in the first few rounds (not first though).

Brian Robiskie, CLE
Robiskie is in an interesting situation and so far has impressed in camp. Tony Grossi from the Cleveland Plains Dealer says his two TD catches from Brady Quinn in red-zone drills along with the as-advertised crisp routes and overall polish make him an early leader for a #2 spot. There is a glut of other WRs there (including fellow rookie Mohamed Massaquoi), we don’t know who will be QB (though Quinn is looking good) and what impact Braylon Edwards has are all unanswered right now. Robiskie (and perhaps Massaquoi) could emerge during the season as a nice WR3 or 4. I would be careful in redraft but in Dynasty, Robiskie looks like a good bet to succeed down the road. Hopefully this will clear up a bit during training camp.

Mike Thomas, Jarrett Dillard, JAX
There isn’t much to prevent either of these two guys from breaking out other than Tory Holt and the bad history of wide receiver drafting in Jacksonville. However, Holt is a great person to mentor these guys and there is a lot to like about Dillard and Thomas both which might have been lacking in previous picks. Both rookies are already huge presences at the team facilities and are getting accolades from coach Jack Del Rio. Dillard was a great leader at Rice who, while a bit undersized, can leap to make grabs and plays bigger than he is. Thomas is also a little smaller than you’d like in a WR, but is a tough guy across the middle, has some speed and was very productive at Arizona. Both of these guys have upside, I expect the OLine and overall offense should be snappier and Holt isn’t a long term solution. Watch these guys and see which seems to emerge in August as a potential late round Wr or a dynasty pick who could be productive by the end of the year.

Juaquin Iglesias & Johnny Knox, CHI
With Jay Cutler coming to town you have to take a hard look at the wide receiver corps. There are a bunch of guys they will compete with – Hester, Bennett, Davies – but none have captured the first spot and run away with it. Hester (allegedly) is looking better than ever. But even the #2 slot on this team could be huge with Cutler throwing the ball. Iglesias is a tough, with good body control and a willingness to go across the middle. If he can become a reliable target, he could see a lot of work thrown his way though he might fight from looks with tight end Greg Olson. Knox is a vertical threat and he’ll see more competition from Hester. I’m still not sold on Hester and think there is room for Knox to move in, but it can be a risk. I would avoid either one in a redraft but either one could be a decent lat pick in a rookie draft.

Brandon Tate, WR
Tate is an intriguing guy – he has talent but he’s coming off of an injury which was pretty bad. Testing positive for drugs at the Combine doesn’t speak well of his smarts either. Even if Tate comes back and keeps clean, he’s a few years away from impacting the lineup. Undraftable in redraft and not worth anything more than a late spot on most Dynasty rosters as well.

Other guys I like:
Ramses Barden, NYG – Barden has to beat out Nicks and learn to use his body better but I’m a well known Barden Booster and I think he will emerge as a player in a year or two. He was prolific at the college level, even though he played against lesser quality opponents. He's a hard worker and while there are a bunch of wide receivers to vie with for time, I think he has what it takes to succeed.

Patrick Turner, MIA – There aren’t a ton of world beaters in Miami and Turner has a shot to compete for a starting spot. He’s not a speed demon, doesn’t get much separation and isn’t a deep threat. He’s an aggressive player – and tough – so he could carve out a red zone/short yardage niche in the offensive scheme.

Derrick Williams, DET – A guy who is not likely to explode for several years but might match up nicely with Calvin Johnson down the road. He has the speed to be so – but he was never terribly productive at Penn State so his ceiling is a big question mark.

Fantasy Rookies 2009: The Wide Receivers (pt 1)

Welcome to the next installment in our look at the incoming NFL rookies and their impact in you upcoming fantasy season.

Today we look at part one of the wide receivers - which we began to look at on last night's Thundering Blurb Show on BlogTalkRadio.com. As is the case with everything this early, there are varying degrees of reaction to the rankings and breakdowns.

Last night I certainly heard some disagreement from the callers on the last few guys we spoke about. That's the point as far as I'm concerned, so feel free to join in below in the comments.

First of all, while I think there are more rookie wide receivers who could impact your fantasy season right now than any other position, receivers have a high bust rate and even when they succeed, it can take a long time.

Keeping that in mind - here is part one of the rookie wide receiver breakdown.

Michael Crabtree, SF
The 49ers had to be thanking their lucky stars that Crabtree fell to them, right?

It all depends upon how much stock you put in the character concerns surrounding Crabtree just before the Draft. Still, even if he has an attitude problem, head coach Mike Singletary has experience dealing with that.

So that issue aside, let’s talk about his skills. Simply put, the man makes plays.

He has phenomenal ball skills, makes amazing catches with his leaping ability and works very hard. Sure, he’s not winning any wind sprints. But he can ball.

Two big questions: 1) How will his foot heal and will it affect his play this season? And 2) The 49ers are loaded with talent at wide receiver. Where will he fit in 2009?

In my opinion, the answer to the first is that it probably will be ok and not affect his overall ability. To be honest, I’m no doctor, and I didn’t stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night, so this is about as arm-chair QB as you can get.

But the whole reason he skipped Pro Days and workouts was to get surgery to heal the foot. If he rehabs well – and as I said, the dude is known as a hard worker – then the foot won’t be a huge factor in his game.

It may factor in his playing time though. Like it or not, he won’t be on the field until late this summer. That is time lost. We know Isaac Bruce can play. We’re pretty sure Josh Morgan can play. Brandon Jones was brought over from the Titans because he can play.

OK, Jason Hill and Arnaz Battle aren’t that big a factor, but still – that’s quite a few wide receivers.

Morgan has the biggest impact, as they play the same spot on the field – the ‘X’ or split end position. There is every chance that because Crabtree may miss the bulk of mini camps, OTAs and maybe even a little Training Camp, that Morgan could start the season there and Crabtree could be eased in.

Down the road, I think Crabtree will take over. But Morgan already looks good in mini-camps and OTA’s and Crabtree will be playing catchup. Rookie wide receivers always have lots to catch up about.

Dynasty
Likely a top five pick in most leagues, depending on need and scoring. But keep in mind that wide receivers have a high bust rate – a huge factor in no wide receivers going in round one of the 2008 NFL Draft. Also, keep in mind that we have no idea who will be throwing the rock this year or next.

Still, those questions (and the few I listed earlier) aside – you’re looking at the top WR in a Fantasy Dynasty draft. I may not take him first overall, but he should be gone no later than 5.

Redraft
You know that high bust ratio I just mentioned? It makes drafting rookie wide receivers even riskier in redraft. We know Crabtree will get his shot but when and how often? I think he’ll make it on the field at some point, but I’d be cautious how much I needed him as a fantasy wide receiver, especially early in the season.

That makes him about as valuable as kick return/WRs and part timers. But when comparing Crabtree to, say, Kevin Walter – you have to determine upside. And it’s my opinion Crabtree will carry more upside than a #3/Kick returner.

So while I am looking to pick him up somewhere in the eighth or ninth round, and around WR35-40, I’d take him before guys like Walter, an aging guy like Tory Holt or an unproven guy like Devin Hester.

Jeremy Maclin, PHI
Most people will have Hakeem Nicks here, but I like Maclin more. Yes the Giants lack a #1. Yes, DeSean Jackson is a stud.

Still, I think Maclin is in a very good situation. Kevin Curtis won’t be a big threat as he will be more of a situational player. And Jackson will benefit from Maclin as well as Maclin will from him.

He does need to polish his route running and sometimes loses concentration, but I think his speed and overall ability to catch the ball totally outweighs those concerns.

The biggest problem is how he fits into this offense. As I said, I don’t think Curtis keeps him benched, provided he has a good camp. If that happens – and I believe it will – they will have to throw him the ball to keep defenses off both Jackson and Westbrook.

All draft season I was told ‘Andy Reid doesn’t draft offense in round 1’. He did – which means he intends to use him. And if he does Maclin could have a solid year.

Dynasty
In my mind, Maclin is a top ten rookie pick in nearly any rookie draft. He may not pay off immediately and I don’t expect numbers like Jackson had last season, but the presence of DeSean will help him by room to make plays and he can do that for sure. He could lag a bit in picking up the game – rookie WRS often do – but he will look very nice next year then, if that’s the case.

Redraft
Don’t get too fooled by DeSean Jackson’s 2008 numbers. I love Maclin – even for this year – but last year’s numbers will be hard to match. He’s more of an upside pick but is one of three guys I think have an excellent chance to provide some points for you and will be invaluable during bye weeks or in deep leagues.

Hakeem Nicks, NYG
Many are predicting instant (or nearly instant) success for the talented junior out of North Carolina. And given the situation he landed in – Toomer gone, Burress a victim of himself – you have to think he’ll get a shot.

Nicks is an outstanding route runner who can make amazing and tough catches consistently. He’s very competitive and will fight for the ball and has no fear going across the middle.

He does have some question marks in his game. He’s not terribly quick and doesn’t get much separation. Nicks can also be a bit inconsistent in his efforts and isn’t all that helpful as a blocker.

Now, there have been some outstanding WRs who haven’t gotten separation. Guys who make their bones being a hard-ass WR who makes plays. And you can learn to block.

But given that there are a grip of other wide receivers – Domenik Hixon, Steve Smith, Mario Manningham and his fellow 2009 rookie Ramses Barden (a Blurb favorite) – so he’s no lock to start beyond a #3 and it Barden has a better camp….

I think Steve Smith and Barden are threats more than Hixon or Manningham. Hixon seemed to fade after a big Super Bowl and when he should have stepped up he didn’t. And I’m not a big believer in Manningham. Barden has to learn to use his body better and that’s one thing Hicks does better.

It’s his edge – can he keep it? I’m not sure I am sold.

Dynasty
Hicks is a guy I seem to love less than a lot of analysts. Still, he’s in a position to succeed if he applies himself and warrants a look in your rookie draft’s first round. I think he has a little bit less distance to go than Barden, so I give him the edge.

But be prepared to sit him most of the year. If you are ok with that, he should produce within a year or so and has the upside to be very good. But if Barden starts using his huge body the way he can – it might be a fight.

Redraft
You’d probably pick him up around the time you’ll pick up NFL #3s and fellow rookies like Heyward-Bey and – depending upon how risk averse you might be – Percy Harvin. Nicks COULD produce, but the glut of WRs around him have me worried right now.

Hicks is one of the WRs who could move up my draft board though, with continued good news out of OTAs and Training Camp. Right now though, not sold enough to risk more than a #3 or 4 spot for my lineup.

Percy Harvin, MIN
Harvin has already had his share of trouble with some concerns over character and drug use – and raised eyebrows when he missed mini camp due to dehydration. When rumor has it you biffed a drug test you knew you would take at the Combine…

Well - let’s just say ‘red flag’.

Despite that, he is expected to be at OTAs and Sidney Rice himself says he expects to have to battle Harvin to for the starting flanker or ‘Z’ position at wide receiver.

The fact that Rice is coming off a knee injury which contributed to a lackluster year (one we expected him to break out in) gives Harvin a leg up – so to speak – but by no means do I count Rice out.

In reality both WRs bring different skills to the table – Rice can make big leaping catches and use his body against opposing secondary while Harvin can both get separation to be a vertical threat as well as work the middle.

Fact is, while Rice’s knee contributed to his lackluster 2008, the clock is ticking and if Harvin can keep his head on straight, he can duplicate some of what Rice can.

Aside from the worries about Harvin's attitude, I don't have a ton of worries. As I said on the podcast, all these guys have question marks. Some - Crabtree and Maclin - have talent which makes those questions not as big.

But most of the rest don't quite fall in that category so they should shuffle all summer long. Harvin has a ton of talent and I think he'll overcome his penchant for bad decisions at least enough to stay on the field.

Beyond anything else, they will get him involved. If he doesn't beat out Rice, they'll put him in the slot or occasionally split him out wide - whatever it takes to utilize his abilities.

Also - this ranking could change radically if His Royal Favreness becomes a Viking. I can't say if I think that is bad or good yet, but it could change the landscape.

Dynasty
Harvin is a guy who certainly has some risk but also a tremendous amount of ability. Like the Vikings, you're banking on the fact that he can overcome his penchant for bad decisions to fully reveal his ability, which is great. He may not vault to superstar status immediately but I think he will emerge down the road as a solid wide receiver - perhaps more than that - for your Dynasty squad.

Redraft
Harvin is also a risky pick for a redraft owner but could end up being productive. As always, minimize your risk. And consider that since most redraft leagues don't draft until late summer, you are in a good position to see where Harvin stands and pick accordingly. If you had to pick him right now, I would wait quite a long time, and he wouldn't be any higher than mid to late WR 50.

Darrius Heyward-Bey, OAK
Ok, let's forget for a moment the ridiculousness of the pick by the Raiders. DHB was still a guy we all felt was a receiver who could be a first round pick.

He's got his faults. At Maryland, he had big problems with drops and he rarely if ever played against press coverage. He wasn't productive, but you can blame that on an offense that never used him to his full capabilities.

DHB also lacks special teams experiance, though that was always more of a factor for me in terms of the actual draft versus fantasy purposes.

I would be positive Heyward-Bey could improve his overall game if it wasn't for one thing - that would be the play of JaMarcus Russell.

Now I'm not calling Russell a bust. I will, however, point out that he is already struggling in OTAs. According to Jerry McDonald - beat writer for the Oakland Tribune - Russell's performance as recently as Wednesday (5/21) was 'awful'.

Head Coach Tom Cable says the problem with Russell is his unfamiliarity with the new offense. But a guy who can throw 70 yards from his knees should be much better in an offense which goes vertical like this one should while in shorts and with no hitting.

So while Russell is no bust, he's starting to list that way and if he struggles, what does that mean for DHB? And before we cry for Garcia, he's not going to allow Heyward-Bey to stretch the field the way Russell should.

Dynasty
Heyward-Bey could develop into a very good receiver or at worst, a Nate Washington type who can stretch the field often, if not be incredibly productive. In my mind, I have big concerns that are not really stemming from his potential. One I mentioned - Russell and his development or lack thereof. Second though, is the organization itself. The Raiders are a mess - is this a place that will be able to develop a wide receiver successfully?

As that is the case, he probably slips down into the second round of a rookie draft for me. He's got some very good upside - but I am unsure he will realize it for some time.

Redraft
With the disarray of the wide receiver corps in Oakland, who is in his way? Chaz Schilens? Javon Walker? If Russell can get his game on - or even if Garcia is a reasonable replacement - DHB could become a decent producer of fantasy points.

But - and this is a large but - this is not an offense I think is primed for big things. So sure, he could be the best wide receiver (2nd best receiver overall next to Zach Miller) on the Raiders - but that might be like re-arranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.

So that's it for this edition of the Wide Reciever Breakdown. Next week I will have the rest of the bunch - and I think there are several guys who have a great deal of value especially in Dynasty leagues.

If there is someone you really want me to cover, throw it in the comments or email me at thunderingblurb@gmail.com and I will tackle them.

Not literally.

Build the Castle, then Find a King to Defend It or Why the Lions Need Jason Smith

I recently finished my first (and at this late date, likely only) two round mock draft over at Draftguys.com and a funny thing happened on the way to the internet.

I didn't have the Lions taking Georgia quarterback Matthew Stafford.

Crazy, I know.

Maybe it's a reaction to the group think I keep seeing in mock after mock where Stafford has to go to the Lions. I have to admit when the herd runs one way, I tend to take a long look at alternative routes.

But more likely it's a number of other mitigating factors - hang with me a moment, put the pitchforks down and hear me out.

1) Protection is a must
To paraphrase myself in my mock (how narcissistic is THAT?), you could clone a Serpentor-like mix of the best quarterbacks ever to grace the field, with the biggest arms, most accurate passes and Churchill-like leadership skills and it won't matter a bit if all the QB does is lay on his back counting clouds and planes.

The Lions offensive line is - if you will excuse the pun - offensive. They flat out don't protect the quarterback. They allowed 52 sacks last season - thank goodness for the 49ers, since they kept the Lions from being the worst in that category.

How can you utilize Calvin Johnson's speed and vertical game when you can't get the ball off? Sure Daunte Culpepper is past his prime as a quarterback. But when you are pressured that often and that consistently? Who can be successful?

2) If You Can't Block, Then You Can't Run and You Can't Pass
Not enough for you? Ok, they're also barely capable of holding holes open for the running back. Ranked 30th in the league in rushing yards, with a near-tragic 1,332 yards total and a futile 3.8 yards per carry.

If you have no run game, you have no pass game. What about the Cardinals you ask? Well, they have an offensive line that jelled late and have two of the best wide receivers in the game today and a #3 who is better than half the #2s (and a few #1 guys) in the league. In the desert, the line held. The proof? Just 28 sacks against (tied with the Giants) and 4,674 yards through the air. Oh, and the third most TDs through the air.

The Lions should be so lucky. And in the end, a lack of run game was one of the flaws in this Arizona team. They didn't need to run because they threw the ball so well, but they finally got caught against a team who could stop the air attack (as they were several times last year) and it cost them the Super Bowl.

It's a glaring hole for the Lions. If they cannot protect the ball carrier, the defense will not respect the run and will just tee off on whoever is the unlucky soul hucking the ball.

3) And Many Miles to go Before I Sleep
Let's be honest. This team is not the Miami Dolphins - a team with no one superstar or stud piece, but a lot of solid players who could get the job done. The Lions have a superstar in Calvin Johnson, a solid running back in Kevin Smith and... um..... some other guys.

Adding Stafford or Sanchez is not instantly turning this team around. It's not even the first step. Or third. It might not even be half a step. This team is riddled with holes all over the place.

The Dolphins succeeded last year in part because the pieces they added in the Draft and elsewhere were just enough to get an average team over the hump. Any Miami fan who is honest with themselves know that the team played over its head last year. And any AFC East fan worth his salt knows they were never as bad as the 2007 season made them look. They just didn't have that far to go to begin with.

The Lions, on the other hand, have much more to do before they can become 'good'.

And if they draft a QB here - well see points 1 & 2. He may not be around long enough to pay off, or could see his confidence shattered before the team really comes together.

There will be plenty of very good quarterbacks next year - more than there are this year in my opinion. And I'm sorry Lionsfan, but you are primed to be at the top of the heap again next year in the Draft.

Like the title says - build the castle first, then prop up a king to lead you.

And while I do like Stafford and Sanchez, I don't know if they will survive the beating they would get behind this line, nor be a capable quarterback long term if they have to live through that many sacks and that much pressure. Many good quarterbacks have been chewed up by a porous line.

What about Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco you say? Totally different situations. Ryan was plopped into a rebuilt oline, one that was built to be carried by Michael Turner. Defenses could not just tee off on Ryan, as they were too busy worrying about Turner. And in turn, they couldn't shut Turner down because Ryan would torch them.

Plop Sanchez and Stafford in a situation like that and I would be much happier with the pick. The Falcons did tons to fix their team before they got Ryan. They had the castle built, had a kick ass moat and a fierce, ball-carrying dragon thrown in for good measure.

Flacco is a weirder situation because he wasn't brought in to start ASAP. He only played because Troy Smith got tonsillitis and missed the preseason. He also stepped into a decent oline situation and while his receivers weren't stunning and the run game a bit lackluster, he wasn't asked to win a bunch of games.

Oh and the Ravens' D? A little better than the Lions'. He didn't need to have big games because the team wasn't allowing many points - just 15.2 a game, third best in the league.

Think Stafford/Sanchez will have the luxury or easing through a season without having to face enormous deficits?

Before you answer, the Lions gave up 32.3 points a game. That would be dead last in the NFL, if you were wondering.

So that's an awful risk you're taking, plugging even those two behind a line that's filled with turnstiles and with a defense that tends to get scored on early and often.

4) Money, Money, Money, MONEY!
I hate to say it, but signability will factor in this pick. How much are you going to spend on Stafford or Sanchez? Ryan had $34.75 million in guaranteed money. They won't settle for less and will ask for a ton more, since they would be the first pick, not the third like Ryan.

The Dolphins' first pick, OT Jake Long, cost a mere $30 million in guaranteed money.

Ryan also signed for six years at $72 million while Long is signed for five years at $57.75 million.

It's going to be expensive, that's why they are trying to trade out of the pick. It's also why they won't be able to. So while it's sexier to pick the QB, it's a far safer - and likely cheaper - to go offensive lineman.

Even if the Lions are unmoved by the preceding 1,241 words, they may be moved by the money. Don't just look at the difference between what Long got and what Ryan got. Remember two other things - we're talking about a quarterback in the first slot, not the third and a quarterback always gets far more money than a lineman.

In 2007, Jamarcus Russell got a six-year contract worth up to $68 million, with $31.5 million guaranteed. Last year, Ryan - just one year and two slots later - got six years at $72 million with $34.75 million in guaranteed money.

You have to figure if push comes to shove, getting their player at a reasonable price in this economy, may play a huge factor. And Smith will flat out come cheaper.

The one thing I haven't touched on is Jason Smith (who I think will go ahead of Eugene Monroe out of Virginia). It's not as if the offensive tackle out of Baylor isn't very, very good. He is. He's great in pass protection, is very light on his feet and agile, plays with a flat-out nasty streak and probably hasn't even fulfilled his potential. I love the guy.

If the Lions take him, he will be a cornerstone for the offensive line - and therefore, that offense - for years to come.

They will have made a good start at building that castle, perhaps adding to it as the Draft progresses.

Then, and only then, should they go find the king to lead them forward.

Interview Transcript: Jarron Gilbert, DT, San Jose St.

So as most of you ho read my stuff know, I attended both California and San Jose State Pro Days last week and interviewed a bunch of players including hot defensive tackle Prospect Jarron Gilbert, who spent a ton of time with Jet Head Coach Rex Ryan during defensive line drills.

I would go so far as to say if Ryan spent any more time with Gilbert I would have expected him to get down on one knee and offer his giant Super Bowl ring up in a proposal.

Which is not to say that the Jets will absolutely pick Gilbert as their second, maybe third round pick. First, he may flat out not be there. Mind you, the Jets showed last year with Dustin Keller that they have a willingness to move up if need be for a player they fall in love with.

But they are doing their homework and that has to make Jets fans happy. Ryan has been all over the place and the jets have been working out, interviewing and investigating a ton of players, as you can see in my team interest article on Draftguys.com.

That list looks as long as the one the Patriots have built and we all know how good they are at working the draft.

You can find the interview with Gilbert, as well as the ones I did with Coye Francies and Chris Owens here and also see this transcript and a ton of other great NFL Draft information at NFLDraftbible.com.

I will be at both USC's and Hawaii's Pro Days next week, so more interview transcripts from
those schools, as well as interviews with players from San Jose State, California, Stanford and more over the coming weeks.

Enjoy.
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Garda: I’m here with Jarron Gilbert, who just had a pretty good Pro Day. Today you spent a lot of time with Rex Ryan–how did that go?

Gilbert: Oh, it went good. We just went through some drills–I think I did pretty good with him, picking things up. Just had a pretty good day out here.

Garda: It definitely looked like you had a very good day. You’ve got a great deal of athleticism. How do you approach the game when you have a good natural, God-given talent? What does that allow you to do that some other players sometimes don’t get a chance to because they have to work a little bit harder at it? When things come easy like that because you have that natural athleticism, how does that change your approach to the game?

Gilbert: Well, I think I’m a lot more comfortable and confident in trying new moves or trying to do things with my body in the trenches that other guys might be afraid to do. Like certain spin moves and just using my speed to beat guys with athleticism and just get around them.

Garda: Ok, I’m sure everybody has asked you this, but the YouTube video? How did that come about?

Gilbert: This is my 1,000th time answering the question, but I heard something our strength coaches said, that Adam Archuleta, the former safety, could jump out of a pool and he was kind of a freak athlete. And everybody was shocked and amazed by it. But I thought to myself it wasn’t a big deal so I went and tried it and brought a video camera out and went out there and did it. No failed attempts, no bloopers.

Garda: You were the 2008 WAC Co-Defensive Player of the Year. That speaks to a great deal of consistency as well as production. What goes into your day to day workout routine that allows you to reach such a high-level of play?

Gilbert: Well, during the season I watched a whole lot of film and studied my opponents to a tee. I knew everything about them going into the week, so that really helped me during the season. And I had a lot of free time during the semester, I only took one unit during the semester and that was archery. I had already graduated so it gave me a lot of time to really study my opponent and a lot of confidence going into the game. So, it helped me out there on the field.

Garda: So film study…A lot of guys–the gym, the field–that’s their biggest focus, but it sounds like film study to you is as important as anything else in the game.

Gilbert: Yeah, film study and staying strong during the week, staying healthy. Getting in the training room and getting in the weight room and getting my body back to its peak for Saturday. That was the biggest thing for me.

Garda: So coming away from the day, what do you feel was the best part of your workout, what do you think probably left people with the best impression of you?

Gilbert: My broad jump I think was probably the most impressive thing of the day. I jumped a 10’7” on broad. I jumped a 9’11” at the Combine, but I just couldn’t stick it for some reason at the Combine so I had to do it about nine or ten times. But I got out here today and I jumped a good number. I think it impressed a lot of people.

Garda: What do you feel was the biggest difference between the two things? What did you do differently between the Combine and now, either training or otherwise? That’s a pretty decent increase from what you jumped from one to the other.

Gilbert: Yeah well, at the Combine I was landing around 10’4” I think–10’4”/10’5”-ish but I couldn’t stick it, so by the time I stuck it on the eight or ninth try, it was a 9’11”. But I got out here and was able to stick it today.

Garda: It seems like that's happening a lot, actually. Chris Wells did like, fifteen, as I remember watching. Last question, then I will let you go. You’re able to not only produce plays out in space, once a player has gotten past the line of scrimmage, you get in the backfield and you cause a ruckus back there as well. What do you do that gives you that edge so you can get into the backfield and disrupt a play before it even really takes off?

Gilbert: I’m just quick off the ball. Quick with a good first step, and I get strong at the point of attack which allows me to get a lot of penetration. I came into the season pretty much a three year starter at end and moved inside, so coming inside I felt more athletic and quicker dealing with the guards then they’re used to. So being able to get off with speed really helped me out.

Garda: Well, you definitely had a good day today. The experience you bring to the table starting as many games as you have is certainly something that’s valuable at the NFL level, so I wish you the best of luck and look forward to seeing you on draft day when they call out your name.

Gilbert: Thank you.

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My thoughts: Gilbert is an intriguing prospect and one people have moved up on their boards significantly. He can either play tackle in a 4-3 or move to end as a five-technique in a 3-4. He would fit well with the Jets 3-4 scheme and it would be nice to finally see the Jets draft guys who can play the scheme they have, rather than try to jam a guy into a scheme they don't fit. Guys like Vernon Gholston aren't busts yet (it's too soon, I don't care what anyone says) but the Jets have drafted guys who didn't fit their defense for years, ever since Mangini came into the picture in fact.

A guy like Gilbert is a tweener, not fitting into any one category easily. But that versatility can also be a strength for some teams.

He looked smooth and solid on his Pro Day, so that may allay some fears about his technique being a little sloppy. Follow up private workouts may get teams a better look at how he uses his hands and perhaps a closer look at effort and motor, something some scouts have been concerned with.

I like Gilbert a ton and think he's worthy of a late second, early third round pick - and he may go earlier than that.

San Jose State Pro Day Wrapup

So getting up at five AM isn't something I do very often anymore, which has hurt my surfing patterns, but improved the level of grumpy, for which my family is grateful.

However, the opportunity to hit a Pro Day as a fully media credentialed writer for the Draftbible and Draftguys is always welcome and as I am two hours away from San Jose and the workouts started at 8am - well sacrifices were made.

Somehow I am still awake. Or this could be a dream.

It was an incredibly smooth running day as well as an early one. Just a handful of years ago, San Jose State was fighting to keep the football program alive and now it's cranking out Pro level players. If Coye Francies and Chris Owens pan out, some people were joking it's going to get titled 'Cornerback U'.

I'm awaiting confirmation on the exact number of personnel and teams, but there were easily between 20-25 teams represented, 30+ people and two head Coaches - Carolina's John Fox and new Jets Head Coach Rex Ryan. More on both is a bit.

The three biggest focal points were the aforementioned Francies and Owens, as well as Defensive End Jarron Gilbert.

Francies was hot after the Senior Bowl, but since then, Owens has started to overtake him and today may have locked that down. That isn't to say Francies won't make a fine corner in the NFL - he probably will. But Owens is hot.

Owens was faster overall, running a pair of 4.40's in the 40, while Francies was clocked between a 4.59 and a 4.65.

Side note- when it comes to timing, here's how it goes at a Pro Day. We (that is to say, media and Scouts) all have our own stop watches and do our own timing. Often right after a run, we'll all double check the time with people around us. After all the speed drills are done, the scouts convene in a seperate location and get a consensus time or range of times.

Francies' was a wide range. I don't know how or why, but the range on his runs was wider than I've seen in the year and a half I've been there. For what that's worth.

Regardless of how wacky those numbers were, Owens was faster by a margin.

Of course, straightline speed isn't everything to a cornerback. Both corners worked out well in the position drills and looked good. Both tracked the balls well and looked good overall. Francies looked good flipping his hips and turning to move upfield. Owens looked great tracking the ball and very fluid.

It's close. I will say that Jets Coach Ryan (told you we'd touch on him again) made a point to chat with Owens and it was clear they had talked before. He might have doen the same with Coye, but I didn't see it. But Ryan definitely looked interested in Owens and given that he likes current Jet and former Spartan Dwight Lowery, it wouldn't be surprising to see the Jets go to that well again. (I realize he didn't make that pick, but GM Mike Tannenbaum did and I'm sure he chatted it up to Ryan.)

I wonder how the Jets might get Owens as it's hard to know where he might go and it's possible he won't be there with the Jets' second round pick. Will the Jets move up like they did for Dustin Keller last year?

They certainly might.

But the guy who seemed to be Ryan's biggest focus was Gilbert. When it was time for the D-line drills, Ryan stepped in and led them. While he spent plenty of time with the other two Spartan DEs there (Marcus Keli and Jeff Schweiger, who I will talk about in a minute), he worked with Gilbert the most and definitely was focused on testing and probing him.

I walked away thinking that the Jets have to be thinking Gilbert is a high priority. Like Owens, you have to wonder how they would pick him up. He's slotted on many sites to be a guy who could go somewhere in the second or third (I lean towards second) so again, the Jets might have to make a move to get him.

By the way, many sites have him listed as a Defensive Tackle but he can play Tackle or End, specifically end as a five technique in a 3-4 which could fit what the Jets are looking at.

I call him an End because that's what he was in school.

Whatever you call him, he too looked solid in drills and is definitely more than a YouTube video and some stats. Gilbert ran a 4.76/4.83 40 with a good 10 yard time of 1.66. Not the fastest bloke, but quick enough.

When guys like Gilbert, Francies and Owens attract a spotlight, sometimes it splashes on some other players as well. One player I am looking more into is defensive End Jeff Schweiger.

Schweiger was a transfer from USC and had an OK, though not spectacular season in 2008. He had a very good workout today, including a 4.71/4.74 40 time, with a quick 4.56 short shuttle which looked pretty solid. Add to it a 35 1/2 vert and a 10 foot broad jump and he's an intriguing guy who isn't on many radars.

I'm not saying he's a first round pick. I'm saying he may have gotten himself enough notice to have a good shot at being a rookie street free agent if not a late second day pick.

It only takes one team to fall in love to make that happen. He's already worked out for the Atlanta Falcons.

I'll be looking at his film this week and am curious to see how he looks.

Finally, I wanted to touch on the bonus portion of the day's program - the workout by players from Cal-Poly, Sacramento State and other small schools.

This took place after the San Jose State day and a bunch of scouts stuck around. It was a long day by the time it was done - from 8am to after 1pm.

Of course, the teams who stayed (including John Fox) were there to see Cal-Poly wideout Ramses Barden do his thing. I think Carolina has to be looking at him given that they have nobody behind Smith and Dwayne Jarrett hasn't worked out. Barden is a big guy, like Jarrett was, and as he learns to use his size and hands to beat corners high, he could be a great complement to anyone, Smith included.

Among the other teams remaining were the Giants, Rams, Panthers, Pats, Dolphins and Packers. The Panthers had two other men there along with Coach Fox, who busted me up more than once with little side comments.

There's a guy I dearly want to have a beer with. He strikes me as a fellow who could make an evening fairly entertaining.

Back at the workout, Barden smoked his Combine 40 time, which was listed as a 4.58, with his first run timed at a speedy 4.51. His second run was a 4.55, closer to the Combien time but still solid. By the way, I clocked his first run at a 4.48. Barden told me he liked that time best and who am I to argue?

Barden was good in his workout as well and between the Combine and today, helped himself quite a bit. His 39 arm length, 10'2" broad jump and 7.1 three cone drill helped also.

One other guy I am looking into after watching him in the second half of the day is Montana State Running Back Demetrius Williams. Williams had speedy 40 times of 4.44 and 4.45 (although one scout had him at 4.39) and overall had a good workout.

Liek Schweiger, Williams may benefit from the teams who stuck around to watch Barden and get himself some workouts. I'm curious to look more closely at his game and examine if he might be able to catch onto a practice squad or on a special teams unit.

Sometimes it's not just the big guys who leave you fascinated.

People Management 101 - Why Josh McDaniels and Denver are a mess

The situation in Denver has continued to disintigrate and it's hard to imagine how much worse it could become. Assuming Cutler does not show on Monday, the Broncos will have some very tough decisions to make and soon.

But the source of this isn't so much about football, though the details take place in that world.

It's about people management. It's about being able to handle the people you have working for and with you with tact and getting them do do what you want without causing a fight.

So far I can't say I see any of those skills in Denver Head Coach Josh McDaniels.

The source of this trouble is likely not his fault. Denver got trade offers, Denver listened to trade offers, Denver rejected trade offers. Not calling Jay Cutler and his agent immediately was an error in judgment, compounded by Cutler learning about it by seeing the story on ESPN and his agent hearing about it from other agents, not the Broncos organization.

Ultimately, that's not necessarily McDaniels' fault. The GM, the team president, the owner - they should have called Cutler or his agent before it got out. A simple 'hey we got this offer, we had to listen to it, but you're our guy and we aren't actively shopping you' might have prevented this whole thing.

Maybe not. I won't call Cutler a child, but he's playing the spurned lover right to the hilt. He's been no more giving or understanding than Denver's front office and asking for an extension at this point is just this short of ridiculous.

But the honest truth is when McDaniels had an opportunity to smooth things over, he didn't. Instead, he choose to push.

Now, if you are a boss - I don't care what kind - and you were having an issue with an employee - one of your best and most important - would you chose to take the conversation you were supposed to use to smooth things over and instead use it to take him to task for errors he had made and improvements he needed to make?

When Cutler, his agent and the Broncos organization met and talk things out, Daniels really only had one thing to do.

He didn't need to kiss Cutler's tail, just make nice. Again, a simple 'Jay I know how things looked, but we had to give any offer a listen'. Allegedly, he told Cutler that nobody was untradeable, but we'll never know for sure exactly how he said that. But he even could have added that to the discussion in a way that wasn't antagonistic.

'Jay, we had to listen. There's nobody on this team that is untouchable. It would need to be a whole heckuva lot to get you from us. You're the guy. But we have to look at every offer, any offer that could improve the team.'

Would that have made Cutler happy? Probably not.

But you know what I KNOW won't make him happy right after you talked about trading him and were in a conversation to smooth things over?

Criticizing him.

I just don't get what seemed smart about using this meeting - the one to make it all better or at least try - to point out what Cutler does badly. To tell him he has a ton of work to do.

Even if it's true. Even if Cutler is far from a Hall of Fame quarterback, this was a peace-making mission. Why say something you darn well know will antagonize the people you are trying to get along with?

Yeah, I get he's the coach. It's his job to get Cutler to play better. But now? During a meeting to diffuse tension?

McDaniels seems to think that because he worked with Bill Belichick, he can throw his weight around like him. Well, sorry Josh, like much of America, your line of credit just isn't that good.

You need to earn the right as well as the respect of your players. Going hard at the face of your franchise is a poor way to go about earning that credit. I don't care if you are the boss. You need to handle your people. And McDaniels didn't do that.

You may think that Cutler is in the wrong. That he's being far too sensitive and he should have just taken his criticism and liked it. And maybe there's truth to that.

But a boss of any kind has to know how to handle people. Especially those who might have an ego that could be bruised, too easily or not. And especially when a situation is already tense, even if the source of the tension is a misunderstanding or just flat out silly.

Instead, McDaniels chose to aggravate and antagonize. To prove he was the bigger dog in the yard.

But you have to wonder whether he realizes all he has at stake. With a tough season ahead, he already risks losing the locker-room.

It's not like he has close ties with the players there. And he's just assaulted their leader, at least on the offense. Players have already come out asking that the two sides mend fences.

But McDaniels is too busy breaking his bucking Bronco to really spend time worrying about what this fight is doing to the locker room chemistry. Or if he is thinking about it, he doesn't seem to care. But the locker room is feeling the pressure as well and players acan't be very happy that their new coach came in with guns blazing.

Again, right or wrong, instead of diffusing and improving a situation McDaniels has tossed gas on a fire.

The two met again this weekend and as was th case before, we're hearing bad news from Cutler's camp. That McDaniels told him he wasn't sorry about trying to trade the young quarterback and that Cutler feels McDaniels wants his own guy at quarterback and that he can't trust the coach. The Broncos quarterback feels antagonized and attacked.

And yes, as has been the case this whole time, Cutler is playing the diva a little hard. Woe is me.

But frankly, it seems to me as if McDaniels is uninterested in patching things up. My way or the highway kid, buck up and go.

McDaniels has yet to show me he has any feel for handling people, an incredibly important skill for a head coach to have. Again, a guy like Belichick or Bill Parcells earned their leeway and ability to call a player out the way they are known for. McDaniels is a young coach and in a new situation. As such, he needs to work with his players, not just clash with them.

Especially over something as ridiculous as this non-trade.

It's People Management 101 folks. And so far, I'm giving McDaniels a failing grade.

In the end, this may end in divorce. And if that's the case, the days immediately following the trade or release will be telling.

McDaniels will once again have the chance to work with players and smooth things over.

Whether he has learned anything from this Cutler mess will be seen in the way he deals with the fallout, some of which will be extremely negative, and the players left behind.

Thursday NFL Draft News and Notes - Did Pat White Just Screw it up?

So one of the most curious stories from yesterday was the decision of West Virginia QB Pat White to not do the wide receiver positional drills he had said he would do back at the NFL Scouting Combine.

White, who impressed scouts back at the Combine and Senior Bowl as a quarterback, said on NFL Network he was not asked to run wide receiver drills.

And yet a league full of scouts, coaches and staff were there to what? Watch a mid round quarterback prospect throw his route? Seriously?

There's even more to this story. According to many sources, White's West Virginia coach Bill Stewart came out prior to the workout and said White was not running any receiver drills.

So as Mike Mayock put it, maybe the reason nobody requested that White run routes is because they were told he wasn't going to. But who knows where it came from because if you go to a site like Rotoworld, find Pat White and sort his news, it looks like you get several different stories and reactions.

In my opinion though, yesterday was a little bit of gamesmanship, maybe some ego and it resulted I think in a major error in judgment.

White made a promise that he would at least humor the scouts and team officials by working out as a receiver. It's why he was given a bit of a pass at the Scouting Combine. At least he was willing to do whatever it took to get in the door. Yes it's clear he intends to be a quarterback. I respect that, and I think he proved he has the potential in Mobile and Indianapolis.

But you need to get in the door first. You need to have the opportunity to show them what you can do and for some guys - and sorry Pat, you're one of them right now - you have to be willing to be flexible enough so that you get your chance.

Here's what I think happened though. Just prior to the quarterback workouts, White told teams he would work out as a wide receiver at his Pro Day. He did it becuase there were a ton of questions about him - can he handle a pro style offense having worked predominantly in the spread, is he big enough, can he make the throws - and at that point he knew he had to do anythign he could to get on a roster.

I firmly believe that he felt then he could play quarterback in the NFL, but knew that he was going to have to win folks over.

Then he worked out. And wow, did he impress. And he started hearing all about how he could make it in the NFL as a quarterback and maybe the talk about wide receiver and wildcat had been premature.

I think he read his own press.

Now let me be clear. This is my read on the situation. I don't know White, haven't talked to him or his agent and what i have heard about him personally is that he is a good kid. So this is all conjecture.

But it makes sense to me that coming off a red hot Combine performance where many people were talking about him as a quarterback, maybe White (or his agent) started thinking that they didn't need to run that route tree. Didn't need to run a gauntlet. Didn't need to do all the wide receiver dancing.

I think he started buying into his own hype. I think maybe he and his people forgot that the 2nd round buzz involved the words 'slash' and 'could also be a QB'.

You could see it in the interview he did with NFL Network's Steve Wyche. White seems to really believe he doesn't need the receiver workouts. I wonder what he will do if a team asks him for a workout, but wants him to run routes? Is he even working on them?

Meanwhile 25 reps from NFL teams showed up - including it appeared to Steelers coach Mike Tomlin - to watch him run and were told quietly ahead of time that no, White was only doing QB drills.

It's telling then that immediately after the QB drills, most of them left.

White needs to think hard about what he is doing. Other prospects have called scouts to let them know when they won't be running drills due to everything from injury to being happy with previous numbers. Scouts and officials expected him to run wide receiver drills and that's why most of them were there.

White didn't. Which means he may have done something more egregious than lie.

He wasted people's time. And that might take as much image repair as Andre Smith's bad Pro day.

Wednesday NFL Draft News and Notes - Did Andre Smith Do Enough?

So while there is the usual ever flowing news from Pro Days and Free Agency, the biggest story of the day seems to have settled just where I thought it would be.

Left Tackle Andre Smith worked out at Alabama's Pro Day on Wednesday and left observers and scouts with two very distinct impressions.

For example, the Chicago Sun Times was told by a source that Smith did well in his positional drills and that he won't drop out of the top ten. On NFL Network's Path to the Draft, both Charles Davis (who was present at the workout) and Mike Mayock felt that while he looked out of shape and underperformed in some areas, he did enough to hang around that top ten area.

However many other reports are calling Smith's workout, which included a mere 19 lifts in the bench press, a 5.28 and 5.33 second time in the 40-yard dash and a short 25 inch vert, lackluster and further cause for concern.

Most cited as red flags are the lift reps and the vert, both of which were expected to be higher. The vertical jump really surprised folks, since Smith wieghed in at just 325 pounds, lighter than he has been in some time. The vertical jump is a measure of athleticism and agility - both things a left tackle needs.

So who is right? Mayock says that tape doesn't lie and Smith can clearly play. But which Smith shows up to camp?

I have that same question. After all, we've now seen him unprepared in many ways for two of the biggest job interviews of his life. And while many o-linmen look a bit chubby, when Smith took his shirt off (not sure who green-lit that idea, but it was a doozy) it was clear he lacked almost any definition at all. And running without his shirt off. Wow.

Many analysts will tell you that the positional drills, not the workout drills (for example the 40, the shuttle) ar what counts and by all accounts, he did well there.

But too many things add up to question marks on Smith and so that part of his day has once again been overshadowed.

Listen, Smith has talent. And other guys have come out of college who had tremendous talent and either no discipline or no clue. Sometimes they bust like former USC and Lion wide reciever Mike Williams. Sometimes they turn it around like former USC running back and current Titans short yardage back LenDale White. Though to be fair, White still has issues.

Smith will either get it or he won't. The question is, when you look at tape of his junior year, is he worth the potential risk?

And as I have said before, the further he falls, the quicker he will get picked up. He will get grabbed by a team in the first because at some point he will not cost as much as he did in the top 5 and may even be with a team who can allow him to come along slower.

At some point in that first round, someone, somewhere will stop seeing a potential problem slide towards them.

They may start seeing a potential Pro Bowler.

He's got that ability, though he is prone to lazy moments and sometimes absorbs too many blows. I like him, but he has his questions and not just personality-wise.

I think in the end, scouts and teams will see this workout and it may support whichever way they were already leaning. For his detractors, this was a horrific workout, one that should drop him out of the top ten.

For those who see his ability and potential, they will focus on his positional drills. They will come back, a few weeks prior to the Draft and they will run Smith through his paces again.

If he has progressed, he may find himself a new home. If he doesn't, his stock will slip just a tad bit further down the first round ladder.

Tuesday NFL Draft News and Notes

Another day, another grip of news.

Like I said yesterday, you never know where the news will break or in what way. I can attest to that since I suddenly found myself breaking the story that Fresno State QB Tom Brandstater would not be working out at all his Pro Day (Wednesday, March 10th) due to a torn Lat muscle which was hurt prior to the NFL Scouting Combine and aggravated in Indianapolis.

"Two weeks before (the Combine) I tore my lat muscle in my side ...underneath my arm," Brandstater told me during the interview on All Access Football. "So, I re-aggravated it at the Combine. I haven’t been able to do anything for the last … since the Combine. I’m not even going to be able to throw…"

Brandstater did say he would be at the event tomorrow and use his time to meet the teams and the scouts present.

What does this mean for a guy like Brandstater, who came off the Scouting Combine red hot? Many analysts have him ranked as anywhere from the fifth to the tenth quarterback. Does he take a huge hit?

Frankly, no. Listen, this is an average group at best. Get past Stafford and his awesome work in a room full of scouts, or Sanchez and his work ethic and lack of film and Freeman and his huge tractor trailer full of upside and you have a host of guys who might, maybe someday be good quarterbacks.

I love Pat White out of West Virginia, but as impressive as he looked at the Combine, he still has some question marks in terms of holding up for a whole season plus he's the new 'face of the wildcat' as far as the talking heads on TV are concerned.

Nate Davis, Rhett Bomar, Stephen McGee - all guys with great upside but nobody who you'll plug in with confidence on purpose.

So to my mind, no, Brandstater is not terribly hurt by this. He wasn't going on day one anyway. Maybe he slips from round 4 or 5 to 5 or six. But he's not a guy who was 'ready to start' anyway.

Moving on to other news (and putting and end to the back patting).....

Nice, though brief, piece on Path to the Draft about Cal-Poly wide receiver Ramses Barden. Another guy I interviewed prior to the Combine, Barden suffered through an injury at the Senior Bowl and had a good, though not great scouting Combine. I was happy to see him still getting press from guys like Mayock and Davis. Barden needs to use his size more effectively if he's going to succeed at the NFL level.

Otherwise he stands to look a lot like James Hardy, part deux. Well, Hardy, minus the Owens signing.

I feel like I have seen the term 'bad surface' a ton during the first few weeks of Pro Days. The latest is in a column on NFL.com by the ageless Gil Brandt about Montana's Colt Anderson. The young safety prospect ran indoors on a rubber track, managing a 4.22 in the 20-yard shuttle. He went outside for the three-cone and ran a 6.88, which isn't too bad either.

I just wrote the other day about a Pro Day where shuttles and 40s were run in a wood-floor gym. A rubber floor is a step up, but how much? What's going on with these schools? I'm not saying they should throw a hundred thousand at facilities just on the basis that ten guys will work out for scouts.

But I'm seeing a lot of questionable surfaces and wonder if I'm going to be typing 'John Doe tore his ACL when his toe caught on the edge of a wood slat.'

Wrapping up Anderson though, he was a guy hovering around the seventh round or rookie free agent signing area in projections. It sounds like he might have locked that up, but it's early and you never know who could really wow scouts over the next 40 plus days.

I know this has been talked about by me and others but how big a day is tomorrow for Alabama tackle Andre Smith? He already cost himself millions with the antics at the Scouting Combine.

Another misstep and he'll be the free-fall we all talk about come the Monday after the Draft.

Finally, if you want to know about great small school prospects, you need to find out what Josh Buchanan is writing. Currently stringing for DraftDaddy.com, Josh is the man when it comes to smaller school prospects.

Mr. Buchanan is reporting that Liberty running back Rashad Jennings, probably the hottest small school guy to come out of the Scouting Combine (neck and neck with Johnny Knox from Abilene Christian), has been racking up frequent flier miles. He hit Denver Monday, the Eagles Tuesday, will hit the Pats Wednesday and the Jets on Friday.

He fits a few of those teams. Denver is collecting running backs like I am moving violations, Philadelphia needs to back oft-banged up Westbrook, the Hoodie (that would be Bill Belichick) needs to wash the taste of Laurence Maroney out of his mouth and Fred Taylor can only do so much. The Jets aren't as likely but how many years does Thomas Jones have? Besides, like everyone else, the Jets know you can't have too many running backs in your pocket.

Jennings has done a ton to up his profile. I'm watching some tape of him now and he's an interesting guy.

He may just be the next 'small school surprise'.

Just when you thought it was safe to be a Bills fan- Terrell Owens is your guy!

According to NFL.com, the Buffalo Bills agreed to terms with Terrell Owens on a one-year, $6.5 million contract.

OK, so this one is a little out of left field and is terribly, terribly risky.

Owens has lost a step, no doubt but is still very effective, very often. He can still make big plays even if he also makes some big drops.

His affect on the Bills will be immediate.

We all know the TO flipside of that great talent and this is not a team that is currently trouble free. Given Owen's history the Bills could be opening themselves up to some problems.

For example, Marshawn Lynch has made some awful decisions off the field the last couple of years and you have to wonder if Owens in a locker room is going to make that worse.

OK, so Pacman didn't immolate his career because Owens was there. Fine. But TO wasn't exactly playing nice with top target Jason Witten. Will he really play second fiddle Lee Evans? Is he capable of being a giving teammate who isn't the focus of the offense?

And let's not forget the list of shattered quarterback relationships in his wake. Three for three, right? Garcia, McNabb and Romo? And no he gets Edwards who has more than once faced questions in Buffalo about whether he is the right guy for the job?

Is this a recipe for success or meltdown?

In a vacuum, on paper, at first glance - this looks like it's an upgrade for the Bills. As I said at the start, they have been desperate for a weapon to compliment Lee Evans.

Maybe it's unfair to judge TO's behavior before he actually puts on a jersey. Maybe this divorce with Dallas will turn him around.

And to be brutal, he usually becomes a problem after a year or so, so this one year contract should get Buffalo in and out before he annihilates the team chemistry and locker room.

But like a former leader of the free world said: 'Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, I won't get fooled again.'.

Or putting it like TO once did: If it looks like a duck, walks like a duck, talks like a duck.....

But the upside here for the Bills could be huge.

Finally, Lee Evans gets the weapon he desperately needs across from him. Let's face is - James Hardy wasn't cutting it. Until he figures out how to use his big frame to muscle the ball away from the secondary, he's not going to be a big enough factor to affect the coverage on Evans. I DO have a lot of hope and expectation for Steve Johnson to emerge down the road, but they need help now. Owens will distract the secondary and we could be in for some epic production for Evans who started off so hot last year only to fall by the wayside when secondaries adjusted to his work.

Trent Edwards finally has another weapon and as I just mentioned, it will make his other main pass target more effective. That's a plus too.

And as the passing game becomes more of a threat, it should open lanes up for the run game and Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson. That's already a pretty effective tandem carrying the rock. How about when they don't find the secondary at the second level because they were burned a few times by the new Owens-Evans tandem?

Assuming Head Coach Dick Jauron uses them effectively, this could be a very dangerous offense.

This is a risky move for Buffalo. It's got a huge risk factor in it. But if it pays off, the Bills could be a sustained threat in the AFC East this year, perhaps not fading offensively once the opposition adjusts to their offense.

Would I do it? Would I want my beloved Jets to do it? No, I don't think so.

But it's a gamble I respect and the kind of move that sometimes pays huge dividends.

Then again, it might also be the type of move a very desperate franchise might do as well, and the sort that could burn a team to the ground as well.

Should be fun to watch though.

More Trouble With Marshawn Lynch

Since it's a slow news day I thought I would get to a situation that's been flying a bit under the radar with Free Agency and Terrell Owens hogging the spotlight.

Back in early February, Marshawn Lynch was arrested in Culver City, California on felony charges of possession of a concealed firearm. There were also four joints found but they were not included in the charges stemming from the arrest as the cops couldn't determine whose they were or who was smoking. (Easy way to fix that by the way - head everyone over to Tito's Tacos and but a lone burrito in the middle of a table. First one there is the stoner. Tito's Tacos is pretty tasty by the way or was when I last ate there half a dozen years ago. Check it out if you ever have the chance. End Tangent.)

Since then, Lynch has had his mom come out and say she's gonna break out the switch, the Bills come out and say they have to wait and see if this changes their draft plans and now John Clayton saying on ESPN that the league will probably consider last year's hit and run brouhaha in his potential suspension and that might result in a 2-4 game ding.

Between this and latest the Brandon Marshall issues, I know there is a bigger article percolating in my brain, but for now we'll focus on Lynch and not the larger question of talent and trouble which keeps popping up.

Lynch has tremendous talent and - from personal experience I can tell you he's a nice guy. Very engaging and very charming. He also does an impressive standing backflip.

But despite the positives, he's now been involved with two pretty significant instances in two years. That isn't a great average.

The Bills agree and I think they - like Clayton - are worried Lynch will get dinged not just for the gun incident, but for the hit and run. Yes, that's double jeapordy but this isn't the Court System it's the NFL. And history counts with Sheriff Goodell.

So let's assume Lynch is gone even two games (let's pretend he gets four and bargains it down to two in the appeal). What does this mean for the Bills?

Well, first of all, the Bills tendered an offer to RFA Fred Jackson. That was after a brief fling with Fred Taylor who ended up a little further north in New England. Jackson was pretty solid in his regular duties last season, so much so that Lynch Fantasy owners were panicking that he might get replaced. And maybe Jackson was getting too many carries, but he was hot and you had to think they were already planning to use him a little more this season.

Well, after last season, the signing was likely to happen anyway, but it took on more seriousness with Lynch potentially sitting a few games.

Because the Bills have to be wondering if Lynch will keep his streak alive for a third year or incident. Long term, if they cannot be sure he will keep his nose clean then they need to solidify this position. And let's face it - Lynch hasn't given them a lot of room to be cavalier. They need to be careful.

So Jackson is likely to get a significant number of carries in both the preseason and potentially the beginning of the regular season. The Bills need to have consistency at the position - they need it for Edwards and the passing game, they need it for the overall run game. They cannot afford to be one weapon down.

And again, even if Lynch isn't suspended this time (and I find that a dubious possibility) they cannot assume he won't mess up again. That may seem harsh but you really cannot blame them.

Keep an eye on Jackson and don't be surprised if the Bills take a long look at the running back position somewhere in the draft whether or not a suspension comes down prior to the April draft date.

Marshawn Lynch is an incredibly talented back, there is no denying that.

There is also no denying he's going to be on a short leash. He's got two strikes so far.

A third and the Bills might decide he's out.

Teams lining up to say they DON'T want Owens

Day 1 of a nation held hostage as we await a TO signing. I really do think this guy will be signed and sooner than later but I am seeing teams coming out saying they have no interest in Owens.

The Ravens (who he was once traded to and then had that trade reversed), the Browns, and the Redskins have expressed disinterest and will not be pursuing TO. I've heard no official 'no thanks' from the Vikings, but have heard rumors they will also pass.

It will be interesting the see where the NFL divide ends up. We know he'll go somewhere - but the teams NOT interested might be just as telling and more interesting than those who are.

Three Up, Three Down - TO released by Cowboys

Well folks, by the time you East Coasters awaken, we'll know for sure, but it looks like Terrell Owens has finished wearing out his welcome in Dallas and he will have been officially released.

The news broke during a conversation I was having with Jared Faree and Raymond Summerland on What's Your Fantasy show and I said it then - TO was NOT the only problem here, but was the biggest target.

How bad was that locker-room that the Cowboys just cut a huge weapon (leaving them with Roy Williams who has failed multiple times to do before)? That they will eat tremendous cap money? That they will just flat out look foolish?

Where will TO land? The Ravens wanted him once. Braylon Edwards is rumored to be trade bait and expendible though TO isn't Mangini's type. That's off the top of my head. Someone will take their chances. TO was incredibly productive during his Cowboy career. He will land somewhere, likely when someone gets hurt in OTAs or Training Camp. He will be good for a year or so and then maybe ride off into the sunset.

The Cowboys are a mess. They are talking about Felix Jones taking more carries from Barber and returning him to the role he had with Julius Jones. Their WR core is a fat question mark. Trading Anthony Henry away for a second string QB. The coaching is suspect.

What is next for the Cowboys? We'll have to see if the impact amounts to a relaxation of the clubhouse or if it's going to cause more chaos.

No Suprise Here - Warner signs with Cards

Sorry for some of the late updates today - short day for the kid and busy day for the other half.

So yeah, this comes as no surprise as Arizona and Warner agreed to terms on a two-year, $23 million contract. The deal includes a $15 million signing bonus which might seem a risk and fumble history, but coming off a year where he played so well and they came so close - what else were they going to do?

An excellent trio of wide receivers await Warner - and even if they cannot come to some happy end for Boldin, I think Breaston can easily step up and Early Doucet has potential as a #3.

But really, as much as I was intrigued by the San Fran flirtation, it was merely a shopping trip to gauge market value.

Aside from the WR Core, that offensive line made huge strides the last portion of the year. I am done saying they played over their heads. They finally jelled in a way which should make all the difference in a divsion which is - despite signings like Houshmanzedah - is no NFC East.

The Cards did what they had two nd should be fine over the next couple of years. The big question here is - what about Matt Leinart? Is he trade bait now, as is rumored or is he just a very highly paid back-up. Now, it's been said he's worked very hard the last year and a half but it didn't show last preaseason and might not matter in this preseason. Is anyone going to trade with that contract and his big question marks?

They may just keep him sitting a while longer and hope that they can extend him cheaply enough to cover themselves when Warner is done. And really, that's the biggest reason to trade him. Can they get him cheaply enough at the end of the contract to warrant keeping him aroudn when he is at best unproven, but in some circles might be called a bust?

Aside from Boldin, this could be the biggest question mark the Cards now fae the rest of the off-season.

But they have now solidified the pass game again. If they can add a running back to tandem with Hightower (who I think we've seen the ceiling on and it doesn't involve 30 carry-bell cow status) the offense should fire off on all cylinders.

If the defense plays hard - it's within this team's capabilities to reach the playoffs again and we all know it's just a short slip from their to a repeat in the big game.

But, um.... let's get through the off-season first.

Really? Seriously? Coles signs with the Bengals

I like Laveranues Coles, I really do. But you let Housh go and this guy is the replacement? I guess not really, that ends up in Chad Johnson/Chris Henry/Andre Caldwell's hands.

Coles probably will have a better year with Palmer throwing to him but really, this is a huge step down for the Bengals. And locking him up for 4 years?

If your alleged concern was age, well Housh and Coles are the same age and frankly Housh is twice the receiver Coles is. Coles has great hands and is a tough as nails receiver but he's no TJ. Yes, they saved $15 million in guarentees, a year and a couple million per year. But you have to wonder what they just gave up in ability. Maybe Housh doesn't have that much left in the tank. And the guarenteed money Housh got was likely just too much.

But every day - since they announced that Ced Benson was their top priority - Cinci has felt like they are going backwards.

Coles will do better this year - NFL and Fantasy-wise. But I have to wonder where this franchise is going right now.

And frankly if that OLine doesn't get fixed, it's all moot.

Pro Day Rewind Week 2 at NFLDraftbible.com

The news from the NFL Scouting Combine wasn’t even cold yet and schools were getting their guys into the spotlight immediately. At this point, it’s largely smaller schools that kick off the post-Combine workout schedule, but from those humble beginnings some mighty stars emerge.

So while the week after the Combine was pretty slow, we’ll talk a little about those few who got us kicked off.

Five schools had their Pro Days last week: Bethune-Cookman, Florida-International, Ball State, Florida Atlantic and a big school as well – the University of Miami. At the end of the week, it was the Florida schools which had made the biggest noise, though Ball State had its say as well.......

For the rest of the article check out NFLDraftbible.com or click HERE!

Derrick Ward a Buc

So you may have caught that Derrick Ward has found a home in Tampa Bay where he and the team agreed to terms on a four-year, $17 million contract with $6 million guaranteed.

So what does this mean? Well, Ernest Graham is going to see less carries this season and Caddy might completely get cut. Even if he isn't, he's about to become odd man out anyway and thios cements his lack of value even in redraft.

Caddy has had a long road back and some horrific luck - I wish him well but if you are a fantasy footballer, he's not worth keeping.

From a pure football standpoint, this should work out well. Ward can run in a zone-block scheme which is what Tampa will run. He has been productive in split carries and could carry more of the load. The oline for the Bucs is young but very good. If they can do the zone-block thing well, he's apt to see a ton of work. Graham will get carries but they never completely bought into his bid to become a full time bell cow.

Now the biggest question will be, who is throwing the ball? and depending upon who, how much 8 man in a box will Ward see?

How effective he is - especially if he wants to repeat that excellent YPC average - may depend upon how honest the QB can keep the defense.

Texas Tech WR Prospect Michael Crabtree has foot injury requiring surgery

Day 2 of the Combine and we already have a huge story - Texas Tech Wide Receiver Michael Crabtree has a stress fracture in his foot which will require surgery. Adam Shefter of NFLNetwork is reporting it could sideline him for 10 weeks, keeping him from running or working out at his Pro Day and possibly putting him out of action longer.

It's hard to say what this could do to his draft stock - as I have said all week, film is king. But that 40 time for a receiver is critical in the eyes of many scouts and coaches.

We know what Crabtree can do on game film. We think we know what he is capable of. And nobody wants to see him rush back and risk re-injuring himself.

Should be interesting to hear what the analysts and scouts have to say. Can you risk a potential top 5 pick on a guy with no workout numbers?

We'll find out in just over 60 days.

NFL COmbine Coverage and Appearences!

Hey folks -

Have been busy in the batcave setting up some work for one of the most important weeks in football - the NFL Combine. Nothing compares to actually seeing a player PLAY but this is darn near the next best thing and these days you can get a better seat than the press AT the Combine (who cannot witness the workouts, only interview players and staff after said workouts).

If you want to know just what is going and how it impacts your favorite team, your fantasy season or the world economy, I can guarantee you answers for two of the three items listed.

Over the course of the next week I will be hosting or appearing on numerous shows, mostly on NFLDraftbible's All Access Football shows. At the top of the blog, you can see the general list (which I will add to if other things crop up). Here are some details on some of the shows.

The Thundering Blurb Football Show - tonight (Wednesday at 10pm PST/7pm PST) - Join me as I get you set for the NFL Combine with news and notes as well as an interview with California OLB Zack Follett.

Guest on All Access Football (approx. 10:10pm EST/ 7:10 pm PST) - I'll be appearing with the guys from NFLDraftbible for a short guest spot where I am sure we'll talk some Pac 10 prospects and expectations for the coming week of action.

Hosting All Access Football - Combine Show - Saturday 10pm EST/ 7pm PST - Join me for exclusive coverage of the 2009 NFL Scouting Combine. Special Guests: Justin Van Fulpen of Verius Sports * Nick Miller of Southern Utah * Darrell Mack, Greg Newman & Freddie Brown of Utah. Also discussion of the kickers (yes kickers) O-Linemen and TEs who worked out today.

Hosting All Access Football - Combine Show - Sunday 10pm EST/7pm PST - Join me for exclusive coverage of the 2009 NFL Scouting Combine. Special Guests: Will Harding of Fresno State * James Pierce of Langston. Also discussion of the QBs, WRs and RBs who worked out today.

Guest on All Access Football (approx 10:10pm EST/7:10pm PST) - Again appearing with the guys from NFLDraftbible.com to discuss the week so far as well as some PAc 10 prospects as always.

There could be some more over the course of the week and if so, I'll get them to you. Also, expect at least one article over the weekend here at the Blurb. I'll have some stuff at Draftguys.com shortly as well as some player interviews at NFLDraftbible in the coming weeks.

We're ramping up hard - hold on tight, it's going to be a bumpy ride!

ps - Make sure you check out NFLDraftbible's COMPLETE coverage of the Combine. Not only will they have shows daily with guests ranging from Draftguys Cecil Lammey and Sigmund Bloom to beat writers to the players themselves but they will have folks on the ground in Indianapolis and reporting in daily.

You want blanketed Combine coverage? Next to NFL network, there's nobody better than the boys at NFLDraftbible.com.