Running Back Blurb Breakdown: Matt Forte

Matt Forte
Another guy who people will argue should/could be in the top 3 but I can't go there.

Yes, fantastic first year. And the offense looks like it is about to step it up. But that doesn't mean Forte will get even better.

Why? Well, for several reasons. First of all, his YPC was a pedestrian 3.9 and he'll need to improve that to continue to put up numbers, especially since his carries will probably drop as Cutler throws more than Orton did.

Speaking of Cutler - while his arm will open things up for the run game (even with mediocre wide receivers) a ton of Forte's 63 receptions were checkdowns by the quarterback. Cutler doesn't play that way - he much more often forces a throw down-field.

So I think it is hard to expect close to the receiving numbers He threw just 61 TARGETS to backs in 2008. Not receptions - TARGETS. (In fairness to the 'numbers' game - he threw at running backs 81 times in 2007.)

The Bears' offensive line is not as good as Denver's, his receivers aren't close and the defense should keep it close. Still, they didn't trade the house for Cutler to hand Forte the ball, regardless of the young RB's talent.

Once again, this points to at least a slight dip in Forte's production. I just don't know how big it goes.

If the Bears defense cannot hold the line, it could be a big dip as Cutler throws to his less-than-stud receivers to come from behind. Or it could just be a little regression as the team transitions into a more passing team.

But until I see the offense in action - and by action I don't mean t-shirts and shorts - I can't say what it will look like. So I don't want to invest a huge risk by grabbing him before some of the guys prior to him on the list.

He'll land in the top 10. I just don't expect a repeat of his top 3 ranking from 2008.

Thursday Stampede

Hey folks,

First off, I would like to apologize for the wacky end to last night's show. Technical glitches threw me off and you can pair that with the chaos of the draft we were trying to do - anyway it was scattered.

We shall be distraction free and glitch free from here on out.

Onto the news and after the passing of Gene Upshaw, let's start positive:

St. Louis Rams
Steven Jackson and the team have agreed in principal to a deal. That sigh of relief was 1,000 owners exhaling. Anyone who saw Jackson slip to them in the latter half of the 1st round could be looking at a huge bargain if the line holds up. Jackson should be productive anyway, but I'd rather he didn't take the beating he did last year. That goes for Bulger too of course.

Arizona Cardinals
Well, here is an IDP note in part because I met the guy, was impressed with how he was approaching the off-season and wish him well. When I met Travis LaBoy here in Los Angeles late last winter, he hadn't left Tennessee officially yet. He talked a lot about the health problems he had faced in seasons prior to 2007 and how his new approach to working out and staying healthy had paid off - no back problems for one thing. When he signed with teh Cards I thought he was a good addition to the D - and hoped he might have soem IDP value. Unfortunately, he is sitting behind Bertrand Berry and while LaBoy has been productive this preseason - 2 sacks and 4 tackles in the last preseason game - if he's on a rotating spot on the Defensive Line, well that could limit his consistency and IDP value. If he comes into a chance to start full time I think he will be very productive so keep an ear out for him.

Chicago Bears
I'm not sure what - if anything - I should read into this bit of news. But the Chicago Sun Times is reporting Kevin Jones is no lock to make the team. My first thought is - well, as bad as portions of that team are, who is? Second though - the Bears have three RBs besides Jones, so if he is goign to stick with rookie Matt Forte, 'the other' Adrian Peterson and Garrett 'no clever nickname' Wolfe, he needs to put up some numbers. I think he will stick just because Wolfe and Peterson are not world beaters, Forte is unproven and could wear down even if he is successful and Jones does have talent. But it is interesting to note and is another warning to not count on any of these guys too much.

Buffalo Bills
Rookie James Hardy is again out with a hamstring injury. He looked ok in his first preseason game, was a non-factor in his second and looks to miss his 3rd. I thought he could be productive thsi year, but it looks like he will struggle as many WRs do their rookei season. (psst. You. Yeah, youin the football jersey. Keep an eye on his fellow rookie Steven Jackson. He might make a case for himself sometime this season. You don't have to draft him - he'll be on the waiver wire. Just keep an eye out. The bills still need a threat opposite Lee Evans....) Fellow rookie Leodis McKelvin has made some noise but hasn't passed Jabari Greer on the depth chart yet, not surprising in many respects. His impact will be limited for soem time in IDP leagues and probably come mostly in the return game.

Carolina Panthers
Dwayne Jarrett is busy muddying the WR position in Carolina. The Rock Hill Herald reports that he has been playing well enough to push DJ Hackett for the #3 role, one which will be a starting spot while Steve Smith is serving his 2 game team imposed suspension. Hackett has all the talent in the world but can't stay healthy and this preseason is a perfect example of it. Jarrett stumbled and bumbled through his time at WR so far - both on the field and off of it - but he's healthy, playing ok and Hackett is hurt. I have Hackett in oneDynasty league and I am starting to think about other uses for that roster spot. Redraft, I just don't know if he will do anything this year. Keep watch, but he not be worth the early season roster spot.

Cincinnati Bengals
TJ Houshmandzadeh will miss Saturday's preseason game - his third straight. Lewis is reportedly not happy but after the team forced Chris Henry on him again, who would be? He wants to get Housh involved and get him some snaps but doesn't want to hurry him along and aggravate the injury. Between Chad Johnson, Rudi Johnson and TJ, this starting offense is a *M*A*S*H* unit. And the mopey Alan Alda produced ones near the end, not the wacky early ones. Both Ocho Cinco has slipped in drafts to where in some cases he has been available as a #2 WR. Johnson's ADP is about mid 3rd and Housh is right there with him, late 2nd, early 3rd. Their health remains an issue but I still say the Henry signing was more about the WRs behind them then their status.

Detroit Lions
Finally, rookie RB Kevin Smith is still practicing with the first team. While the jury is still out on the Lions O-line, running game and Smith's ability to carry the load for a season, this is no shock - he only had to beat Tatum Bell. If there is one guy you want in front of you on the depth chart at the RB position, it's Bell. It almost guarentees you a shot at the starting job, no matter who you are. Don't overvalue Smith but he is a starter and that is very valuable. As a #2/flex/bye week filler he coudl be outstanding.

That's all for now. A reminder that the Blurb will be off the next few days while I am away. Overview of the weekend games will be done on Monday. Tune in to the Drvie Block tonight at 10pm EST/7pm PST and join myself (for hour 1) and Cecil Lammey and Sigmund Bloom of Footballguys.com for more great discussion and tips on how to decimate your league this season.

Wednesday Morning Stampede

So FAVREWATCH 2008 is far from over, but we knew that would be the case.

All that and some running back news below for the Morning Stampede...

Green Bay Packers
As was reported yesterday, Favre is probably close to being traded and soon. Both the Jets and Bucs are allegedly interested - the Tampa Tribune says Favre will be a Buc be days end, with Brian Griese heading to Wisconsin to back up Aaron Rodgers (which as I wrote last night, only made sense). Not so fast says Jay Glazer of FoxSports - the NY Jets have offered a much better trade package. Apparently, Favre currently prefers the Bucs, though he is talking to the Jets, and supposedly feels that the Packers are asking too much from the Bucs just because they are a NFC team.

I think this will clear up by Friday, maybe before, but it continues to be somewhat ugly between the Pack and their once favored son.

Both the Bucs and Jets would be good, not great fits, for Favre and neither is a Super Bowl contender though the Bucs seem closer on the surface. Favre may help them make a run while he merely makes the Jets an 8-8 team with Wild Card aspirations. That's not a slam on Favre - the Jets are just farther away. But you never know.

Either team would put Favre back on the Fantasy radar and make him - at the very least - a #2 QB.

Chicago Bears
Kevin Jones is definitely healing well and while he might still open the season on the PUP list, he is supposedly running close to full speed. He's been in pads, though sporting a heavy knee brace. It's the brace that reminds you he is still coming back from a nagging injury and is a guy who the Bears probably picked up more for later in the season. Jones could be a pick during the last half or third of your draft, but you shouldn't draft him for anything but bench depth. Matt Forte is still the starter and will be for some time, barring him struggling mightily.

San Francisco 49rs
Frank Gore could have a huge season if he is involved in the pass game the way I (and others) suspect he might, yet I still see him slipping late in the 1st round of drafts. Gore has worked hard to get into better shape, including dropping wieght. With the concerns for just about every running back pick after #3 (Westbrook or Peterson, depending on who you ask), Gore is someone to look at closely and consider for your #1 back.

Most of the 49rs have a long way to go to prove themselves fantasy worthy and Gore could still face 8 man fronts if Martz's offense struggles. But Gore has faced them before and done well. Dropping the weight and getting into better shape will hopefully keep him healthier and get rid of nagging injuries that have plagued him for his career.

Pittsburgh Steelers
Just when we thought Fast Willie Parker had lost his goal line touches for good with the drafting of Rashard Mendenhall - not so fast. According to HC Mike Tomlin (by way of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette ), Parker is once again under consideration for goal line duties. Now, I need to look into this but this may be a sign Mendenhall is struggling a little in camp. I'll see what I can find out. Parker will get you the yards - but his touchdowns were completely absent last year and it killed his owners. If he can get even a few more goal line touches, it would really help his value to you. I have been, and still do, assume that the rookie Mendenhall will get a ton of short yardage looks, including in the red zone. Parker hasn't got the size for it and concern still is he might wear down. But he has been effective on occasion and could be again if the offensive line is back on it's game. That was the biggest problem last year - the Ol-ine struggled as much as he did.

He's your rock solid RB2 - with a ton of upside if this plays out.

That's all for now - more later.

More NFLDraftbible videos

One about rookie Matt Forte and one general report covering rookies Jordan Dizon, Chris Long and Dan Conner.

They are also available, along with many more videos at NFLDraftbible.com's front page.