Running Back Blurb Breakdown: Matt Forte

Matt Forte
Another guy who people will argue should/could be in the top 3 but I can't go there.

Yes, fantastic first year. And the offense looks like it is about to step it up. But that doesn't mean Forte will get even better.

Why? Well, for several reasons. First of all, his YPC was a pedestrian 3.9 and he'll need to improve that to continue to put up numbers, especially since his carries will probably drop as Cutler throws more than Orton did.

Speaking of Cutler - while his arm will open things up for the run game (even with mediocre wide receivers) a ton of Forte's 63 receptions were checkdowns by the quarterback. Cutler doesn't play that way - he much more often forces a throw down-field.

So I think it is hard to expect close to the receiving numbers He threw just 61 TARGETS to backs in 2008. Not receptions - TARGETS. (In fairness to the 'numbers' game - he threw at running backs 81 times in 2007.)

The Bears' offensive line is not as good as Denver's, his receivers aren't close and the defense should keep it close. Still, they didn't trade the house for Cutler to hand Forte the ball, regardless of the young RB's talent.

Once again, this points to at least a slight dip in Forte's production. I just don't know how big it goes.

If the Bears defense cannot hold the line, it could be a big dip as Cutler throws to his less-than-stud receivers to come from behind. Or it could just be a little regression as the team transitions into a more passing team.

But until I see the offense in action - and by action I don't mean t-shirts and shorts - I can't say what it will look like. So I don't want to invest a huge risk by grabbing him before some of the guys prior to him on the list.

He'll land in the top 10. I just don't expect a repeat of his top 3 ranking from 2008.

Thursday Game Breakdown - Saints at Bears - Bears Breakdown

BEARS
Kyle Orton – Isn’t knocking it out of the park but has played all right since he came back from injury. This isn’t an awful matchup – the Saitns are 16th vs the pass, and have given up 20 TDs and only have 11 INTs. So he won’t turn the ball over (not really his problem most weeks) and will probably throw for @ 200 or so yards again. But he won’t blow your opponent away and unless this is your best matchup and QB, I would rather pass on him. But it depends on your alternatives and Orton won’t lose you the game which might be important.

Matt Forte – Why are you even wondering? START HIM. Lock him into your RB2 (maybe RB1 depending). The Saints give up 112 yds per game and have allowed 10 TDs on the ground. Oh and he catches – if Orton has a TD, it is likely Forte catches it. Should have an excellent day as he is involved even if they trail as he catches the ball well.

Chicago WRs – You can stick any one of them in, but Hester is getting the most targets of late. Has the best chance as a flex or WR3/4 but don’t hold your breath.

Greg Olson – Olson is very much up and down – there are more stable TEs – BUT do you own them. He can get some looks from Orton and is a risky play. Depends upon who else you have, but I’m not sold that he will add that much to your fantasy team.

Orton wins Chicago Starting Quarterback Job

According the Chicago Sun-Times, Kyle Orton will be the Bears' Opening Day quarterback.

Which only tells you which Chicago QB you should not be drafting. Orton looked better than Grossman so far, but his yards per pass is awful and he doesn't bring much upside to the table.

Still, he's the guy right now and it should merely remind us that at the end of the day, Chicago will struggle to give us any fantasy value through the air. Hester and Greg Olson might break out, but I would suggest staying away. Even Matt Forte is shaky when he's going to face stacked run D's all season.

More later, but thought you might like the breaking news...

Wednesday Morning Stampede

So FAVREWATCH 2008 is far from over, but we knew that would be the case.

All that and some running back news below for the Morning Stampede...

Green Bay Packers
As was reported yesterday, Favre is probably close to being traded and soon. Both the Jets and Bucs are allegedly interested - the Tampa Tribune says Favre will be a Buc be days end, with Brian Griese heading to Wisconsin to back up Aaron Rodgers (which as I wrote last night, only made sense). Not so fast says Jay Glazer of FoxSports - the NY Jets have offered a much better trade package. Apparently, Favre currently prefers the Bucs, though he is talking to the Jets, and supposedly feels that the Packers are asking too much from the Bucs just because they are a NFC team.

I think this will clear up by Friday, maybe before, but it continues to be somewhat ugly between the Pack and their once favored son.

Both the Bucs and Jets would be good, not great fits, for Favre and neither is a Super Bowl contender though the Bucs seem closer on the surface. Favre may help them make a run while he merely makes the Jets an 8-8 team with Wild Card aspirations. That's not a slam on Favre - the Jets are just farther away. But you never know.

Either team would put Favre back on the Fantasy radar and make him - at the very least - a #2 QB.

Chicago Bears
Kevin Jones is definitely healing well and while he might still open the season on the PUP list, he is supposedly running close to full speed. He's been in pads, though sporting a heavy knee brace. It's the brace that reminds you he is still coming back from a nagging injury and is a guy who the Bears probably picked up more for later in the season. Jones could be a pick during the last half or third of your draft, but you shouldn't draft him for anything but bench depth. Matt Forte is still the starter and will be for some time, barring him struggling mightily.

San Francisco 49rs
Frank Gore could have a huge season if he is involved in the pass game the way I (and others) suspect he might, yet I still see him slipping late in the 1st round of drafts. Gore has worked hard to get into better shape, including dropping wieght. With the concerns for just about every running back pick after #3 (Westbrook or Peterson, depending on who you ask), Gore is someone to look at closely and consider for your #1 back.

Most of the 49rs have a long way to go to prove themselves fantasy worthy and Gore could still face 8 man fronts if Martz's offense struggles. But Gore has faced them before and done well. Dropping the weight and getting into better shape will hopefully keep him healthier and get rid of nagging injuries that have plagued him for his career.

Pittsburgh Steelers
Just when we thought Fast Willie Parker had lost his goal line touches for good with the drafting of Rashard Mendenhall - not so fast. According to HC Mike Tomlin (by way of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette ), Parker is once again under consideration for goal line duties. Now, I need to look into this but this may be a sign Mendenhall is struggling a little in camp. I'll see what I can find out. Parker will get you the yards - but his touchdowns were completely absent last year and it killed his owners. If he can get even a few more goal line touches, it would really help his value to you. I have been, and still do, assume that the rookie Mendenhall will get a ton of short yardage looks, including in the red zone. Parker hasn't got the size for it and concern still is he might wear down. But he has been effective on occasion and could be again if the offensive line is back on it's game. That was the biggest problem last year - the Ol-ine struggled as much as he did.

He's your rock solid RB2 - with a ton of upside if this plays out.

That's all for now - more later.

More Training Camp Notes - now with 50% less Favre

Let's get this out of the way:

• Favre to Jets looks dead (rumor is Favre no likey Gang Green)
• Favre to Bucs looks possible
• No Favre at Packers Camp today

Now on to more stuff not Favretastic -

MRIs Around the NFL

Asante Samuel had one - the injury to his hammy looks 'Mild'. (Philadelphia Inquirer & Daily News) Good news for Philly - a 'push' for Lito Sheppard. Again, Samuel means better numbers (or more opportunity for Sheppard) but no Samuel means leverage in contract talks.

Deuce McAllister's was negative - but like I said yesterday, it's bad that he needs one already. Once again, I invite you to hop on board the Pierre Thomas Train before it leaves the Station!

I think that's it for MRIs today - maybe we can do another turn tomorrow?

Bears Lock Hester Up
According to the Chicago Sun Times Da Bears have signed kick return monster and unproven wide receiver Devin Hester to a 4 year 30 Million dollar extension, $15 mill of which is guarenteed. Now, as I said the other day, they HAD to make him happy - right now he's the whole offense. BUT - and this is critical - he has yet to prove that he's worth the money they just gave him. I mean, on the one hand, he is, as he's the most dynamic kick returner maybe ever. But on the other, what if he sucks out loud at receiver? Like the last phenomenal kick returner who was mediocre as a pass catcher - Dante Hall?

They had to pay him - but I don't know this was money well spent. Hester has to put it together as a pass catcher now.

Of course if he does - will he back with his hand out again?

BTW - for Fantasy purposes, let me reiterate that no Bear WR is worth more than a flier, unless you get good points for kick returns in which case, Hester is your man.

Ashlie Lelie Does What he Does Best - Gets Hurt
For those of you hoping Lelie would be the #3 guy in SF and end up with some Sleeper value - the Santa Rosa Press Democrat is reporting that Lelie is Day-to-Day with a left calf sprain. The guy has never been sturdy and with Battle looking to be the guy behind Isaac Bruce and Bryant Johnson, Lelie had a huge hill to climb. Looks like he fell off it.

Every day is a day he loses ground. You want a sleeper, try looking at Jason Hill, who has done some damage in Camps. Of course, rumor has it the 49rs will not be using a lot of 3 WR sets (utilizing Frank Gore and Vernon Davis as targets instead) so looking for a productive #3 wide reciever in San Fran might be a little like spitting in the wind.

That's all for now - -

Comment below or email at ThunderingBlurb@gmail.com

Extensions and NON-extensions

Today one fellow got signed like I said he would a while back while another is threatening to boycott Training Camp if he doesn't get shown the money very soon.

According to Brad Biggs at the Chicago Sun Times, Kick Return Phenom turned wide receiver Devin Hester is unhappy with his contract and may skip training camp in a huff.

Now, what that means is, he'll have to work hard to overcome Brandon Lloyd and self-proclaimed #1 WR Marty Booker later on.

Considering the two names I just typed, Hester's threat is a real one. While I am dubious as to his value as a wide receiver Hester is the most dynamic thing in a Bears uni, so they need to get him into camp. I don't think he should be asking for giant boatloads of cash, but making sure the only highlight you have had the last several years is happy, secure and a BEAR, is pretty vital. I think the Bears may need to blink here, though once the penalties for missed camp hit, Hester may have to get a job at Der Weinerschnitzel or White Castle to get by.

Maybe a team the Bears should look at would be the New Orleans Saints, who signed wide receiver Marques Colston to an extension which has locked him up through 2011. Adam Shefter reported on the NFL Network that the Saints were only too happy to keep Colston smiling. While he has been dinged up on occasion, he is a great target for Brees and with the addition of Shockey and the (hopeful) return to health of Reggie Bush, Colston could find a few less double teams coming his way. We haven't heard the terms yet but whatever it was was worth it - you can't put a price on your best target (well, clearly you CAN but you can't always be cheap about it).

Colston has the potential to be a top 5 Fantasy reciever this year and if he's healthy could challenge for the top spot.

Getting back to Hester - while the guy isn't worth Colston money (again, whatever that is), he's the best thing the Bears have offensively. If he blows town or really holds out, they could be in trouble.

I wouldn't pay him like a top offensive weapon but I would make sure he leaves the table as happy as I could make him.

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