David Garrard – A bad matchup to be sure, the Colts are only allowing 190 yds per game. Does it get worse? Yup – only a meager 5 TDs through the air while snagging 14 INTs – good enough for 9th best total in the league. Garrard has been up and down all seasojn – I wouldn’t want to throw him out there in my Championship week against this defense.
Maurice Jones-Drew – MJD is THE MAN now in the backfield and faces a nice matchup. The Colts allow 127+ yards a game on the ground and 16 Tds to date. Not only will MJD get a lot of carries, he’ll get some targets in the pass game as well. While he has under-produced for chunks of the season, I think this week he rolls off a very nice game.
Dennis Northcutt – Looks like he gets Garrard’s love with Matt Jones out. Can I trust him? Probably not, certainly not as more than a 4. As I expect a bad game from Garrard, you can’t depend on Northcutt all that much.
Reggie Williams – Williams consistently confuses the heck out of everybody and while he can put up the occasional big game I don’t think this is a matchup I would risk it.
Mike Walker – Nope – I want to see him play I think he has potential but it hasn’t been realized – or evident – since he hasn’t been on the field.
Marcedes Lewis – A shaky guy at best, not in the top 10 TEs this week, but if you are in a Hail Mary situation, you’re likely going to get maybe 20-40 yards and 3-5 catches. So not pretty, and barely passable.
Showing posts with label Thursday Night football. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Thursday Night football. Show all posts
Thursday, December 18, 2008
Thursday Game Breakdown - Colts at Jaguars (Colts breakdown)
Peyton Manning – Jacksonville is ranked as the 14th team against the pass allowing only 208 yds per game, but actually have given up the 4th most TDs in the league with 22. Manning has had a pair of great games the last two weeks against Cinci and Detroit, both of which normally hurt QBs because they can be run on so effectively. However, the Colts love to throw the ball and will probably do it often enough to where Manning should be a solid start once again.
Dominic Rhodes - Rumor has once again told us that Addai will certainly, maybe almost for sure could be dressed for the game. Whee - I love certainty! I don’t think this hurts Rhodes all that much but it could hamper the overall numbers a tad. The Jags are ranked a mediocre 17th in the league allowing 110 plus yards in the ground and 11 TDs. Not great not bad. I think Rhodes could get the lions share of the carries – if the Colts might make the playoffs then perhaps a healthy Addai may be worth riding Rhodes for now. I think he could get some decent yards and he’s a better start without Addai than with. I expect TDs through the air, not on the ground though so shoot for yards with a Rhodes start.
Joseph Addai – Even if he can play, do you want to roll with him? Even when he has played, he’s been a streaky. He’s had some good games (week 12 and 11) but far more shaky games. Even if he does go, I don’t know how well he will play. I think you take your championship life in your hands if he is in your lineup.
Reggie Wayne – Wayne hasn’t been as outstanding as we had hoped he might be. He’ll have a few big games in a row and then sort of fade away. Three of the last four weeks have been less than good – he gets targets but until last week vs Detroit had actually been a rather bad play. However the Jags give up yards, as I mentioned with Manning, and a ton of TDs. I think you can expect one of his better games this week, rather than worry about a down week.
Anthony Gonzales – A bump up since Harrison doesn’t play so Gonzalez might be a decent 3 or 4. He’s a shaky 4 most weeks, but could get some work across from Wayne when the coverage shifts that way. Has some nice upside, but I'm not in love with him as a start this week.
Dallas Clark – Does the Pro Bowl snub get a big game from him? Do Manning and Dungy try to prove a point? I think Clark could be an excellent start this Thursday because I think the Colts were as shocked as we were that Gates made it when Clark was outplaying him the whole year. 142 and a touch like last week? Probably not. But a bunch of catches and 50 or so yards – with maybe an accompanying TD? I think it’s very possible.
Dominic Rhodes - Rumor has once again told us that Addai will certainly, maybe almost for sure could be dressed for the game. Whee - I love certainty! I don’t think this hurts Rhodes all that much but it could hamper the overall numbers a tad. The Jags are ranked a mediocre 17th in the league allowing 110 plus yards in the ground and 11 TDs. Not great not bad. I think Rhodes could get the lions share of the carries – if the Colts might make the playoffs then perhaps a healthy Addai may be worth riding Rhodes for now. I think he could get some decent yards and he’s a better start without Addai than with. I expect TDs through the air, not on the ground though so shoot for yards with a Rhodes start.
Joseph Addai – Even if he can play, do you want to roll with him? Even when he has played, he’s been a streaky. He’s had some good games (week 12 and 11) but far more shaky games. Even if he does go, I don’t know how well he will play. I think you take your championship life in your hands if he is in your lineup.
Reggie Wayne – Wayne hasn’t been as outstanding as we had hoped he might be. He’ll have a few big games in a row and then sort of fade away. Three of the last four weeks have been less than good – he gets targets but until last week vs Detroit had actually been a rather bad play. However the Jags give up yards, as I mentioned with Manning, and a ton of TDs. I think you can expect one of his better games this week, rather than worry about a down week.
Anthony Gonzales – A bump up since Harrison doesn’t play so Gonzalez might be a decent 3 or 4. He’s a shaky 4 most weeks, but could get some work across from Wayne when the coverage shifts that way. Has some nice upside, but I'm not in love with him as a start this week.
Dallas Clark – Does the Pro Bowl snub get a big game from him? Do Manning and Dungy try to prove a point? I think Clark could be an excellent start this Thursday because I think the Colts were as shocked as we were that Gates made it when Clark was outplaying him the whole year. 142 and a touch like last week? Probably not. But a bunch of catches and 50 or so yards – with maybe an accompanying TD? I think it’s very possible.
Thursday, December 11, 2008
Thursday Game Breakdown - Saints at Bears - Bears Breakdown
BEARS
Kyle Orton – Isn’t knocking it out of the park but has played all right since he came back from injury. This isn’t an awful matchup – the Saitns are 16th vs the pass, and have given up 20 TDs and only have 11 INTs. So he won’t turn the ball over (not really his problem most weeks) and will probably throw for @ 200 or so yards again. But he won’t blow your opponent away and unless this is your best matchup and QB, I would rather pass on him. But it depends on your alternatives and Orton won’t lose you the game which might be important.
Matt Forte – Why are you even wondering? START HIM. Lock him into your RB2 (maybe RB1 depending). The Saints give up 112 yds per game and have allowed 10 TDs on the ground. Oh and he catches – if Orton has a TD, it is likely Forte catches it. Should have an excellent day as he is involved even if they trail as he catches the ball well.
Chicago WRs – You can stick any one of them in, but Hester is getting the most targets of late. Has the best chance as a flex or WR3/4 but don’t hold your breath.
Greg Olson – Olson is very much up and down – there are more stable TEs – BUT do you own them. He can get some looks from Orton and is a risky play. Depends upon who else you have, but I’m not sold that he will add that much to your fantasy team.
Kyle Orton – Isn’t knocking it out of the park but has played all right since he came back from injury. This isn’t an awful matchup – the Saitns are 16th vs the pass, and have given up 20 TDs and only have 11 INTs. So he won’t turn the ball over (not really his problem most weeks) and will probably throw for @ 200 or so yards again. But he won’t blow your opponent away and unless this is your best matchup and QB, I would rather pass on him. But it depends on your alternatives and Orton won’t lose you the game which might be important.
Matt Forte – Why are you even wondering? START HIM. Lock him into your RB2 (maybe RB1 depending). The Saints give up 112 yds per game and have allowed 10 TDs on the ground. Oh and he catches – if Orton has a TD, it is likely Forte catches it. Should have an excellent day as he is involved even if they trail as he catches the ball well.
Chicago WRs – You can stick any one of them in, but Hester is getting the most targets of late. Has the best chance as a flex or WR3/4 but don’t hold your breath.
Greg Olson – Olson is very much up and down – there are more stable TEs – BUT do you own them. He can get some looks from Orton and is a risky play. Depends upon who else you have, but I’m not sold that he will add that much to your fantasy team.
Wednesday, December 3, 2008
Thursday Game Breakdown - Chargers vs Oakland
Oakland
JaMarcus Russell - This might be a better than average start for Russell, but does it matter when the average is this bad? You can’t start him unless you are in the deepest of trouble. Yes, the Chargers are a fantastically awful 31st vs the pass. But Russell has struggled too early and often to count on in the fantasy playoffs.
Justin Fargas – The run defense here is just good enough to have me worried (15th with only 6 TDs allowed). Michael Turner did get 120 yads but that was Turner and with a good offense. Fargas is not as good and lacks that good offense portion of the formula. And he may split carries with Darren McFadden. A flex? Maybe but a risky one.
Darren McFadden – Boom or Bust with DMac2 – he can put up some numbers but is splitting carries with son of Huggy Bear and having to run with no real threat of passing offense behind him – it could be tough. Again, the Chargers aren’t great against the run, but good enough and McFadden may put up a little of this, a little of that and not enough to be worth the start. He might be an early flex or real low end #2. He is a Hail Mary early in the week and I hate those.
OAK WR core – no thanks. Seriously.
Zach Miller – Miller has been the only somewhat stable thing in the offense for a while and given how shaky many TEs are, he will be a decent though not fantastic start most weeks.
CHARGERS
Phillip Rivers - A few weeks ago this looked like a much better matchup than it does now. But the oline in SD has actually gotten worse and allowed Rivers to get massacred last weekend againstAtlanta
Ladainian Tomlinson – Sure he hasn’t been himself this year. And yes the oline has been sub-par and losing Lorenzo Neal was unfortunate. Still, he is facing the 29th run D and on his own with the same bad oline scored 2 TDs and had 100+ yards. They will key on him and I think – while it will be meh for LT – he will have a good enough day to warrant starting him in all leagues – no lower than the #2 and more than likely worth at least a low level RB1.
Chris Chambers - While he is getting more targets than Jackson, he's still not impressing me and isn't doing anything much fantasy-wise. I wouldn't trust him if I could avoid it, there are better #3s and a few #4s I might like more - including his teammate Jackson. Toomer, Hixon, Ginn are all guys I would rather start.
Vincent Jackson - Jackson is not getting as many targets as he had in the past but the ones he gets are red zone targets. If Chambers could play a little better, opposing secondaries wouldn't be able to blanket Jackson and he would have more room. But he gets some redzone love and between that and his more reliable hands, I don't mind having V-Jax in my lineup as a 4 depending upon other matchups.
Antonio Gates - Gates has not had a very good season, didn't play great last time out (though was the only guy with a receiving TD) and struggled last week. If the Chargers cannot protect Rivers, Gates is in for a long day. I can only hope he plays well - this is almost a bench-worthy matchup right now - with a lesser TE it would be. But Gates can go off - so it will be hard to find someone you trust more often and can count on.
JaMarcus Russell - This might be a better than average start for Russell, but does it matter when the average is this bad? You can’t start him unless you are in the deepest of trouble. Yes, the Chargers are a fantastically awful 31st vs the pass. But Russell has struggled too early and often to count on in the fantasy playoffs.
Justin Fargas – The run defense here is just good enough to have me worried (15th with only 6 TDs allowed). Michael Turner did get 120 yads but that was Turner and with a good offense. Fargas is not as good and lacks that good offense portion of the formula. And he may split carries with Darren McFadden. A flex? Maybe but a risky one.
Darren McFadden – Boom or Bust with DMac2 – he can put up some numbers but is splitting carries with son of Huggy Bear and having to run with no real threat of passing offense behind him – it could be tough. Again, the Chargers aren’t great against the run, but good enough and McFadden may put up a little of this, a little of that and not enough to be worth the start. He might be an early flex or real low end #2. He is a Hail Mary early in the week and I hate those.
OAK WR core – no thanks. Seriously.
Zach Miller – Miller has been the only somewhat stable thing in the offense for a while and given how shaky many TEs are, he will be a decent though not fantastic start most weeks.
CHARGERS
Phillip Rivers - A few weeks ago this looked like a much better matchup than it does now. But the oline in SD has actually gotten worse and allowed Rivers to get massacred last weekend against
Ladainian Tomlinson – Sure he hasn’t been himself this year. And yes the oline has been sub-par and losing Lorenzo Neal was unfortunate. Still, he is facing the 29th run D and on his own with the same bad oline scored 2 TDs and had 100+ yards. They will key on him and I think – while it will be meh for LT – he will have a good enough day to warrant starting him in all leagues – no lower than the #2 and more than likely worth at least a low level RB1.
Chris Chambers - While he is getting more targets than Jackson, he's still not impressing me and isn't doing anything much fantasy-wise. I wouldn't trust him if I could avoid it, there are better #3s and a few #4s I might like more - including his teammate Jackson. Toomer, Hixon, Ginn are all guys I would rather start.
Vincent Jackson - Jackson is not getting as many targets as he had in the past but the ones he gets are red zone targets. If Chambers could play a little better, opposing secondaries wouldn't be able to blanket Jackson and he would have more room. But he gets some redzone love and between that and his more reliable hands, I don't mind having V-Jax in my lineup as a 4 depending upon other matchups.
Antonio Gates - Gates has not had a very good season, didn't play great last time out (though was the only guy with a receiving TD) and struggled last week. If the Chargers cannot protect Rivers, Gates is in for a long day. I can only hope he plays well - this is almost a bench-worthy matchup right now - with a lesser TE it would be. But Gates can go off - so it will be hard to find someone you trust more often and can count on.
Thursday, November 20, 2008
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals - Bengals Breakdown
Ryan Fitzpatrick – Against the top pass defense in the league I would rather avoid the Harvard QB. It’s too risky most weeks to roll him out much less this week. But what to do if you have a whole bunch of question marks? I would still try to avoid him. He might not turn the ball over a lot, and the Steelers only have 10 INTs (some might claim 11 after the blown call against the Chargers) but they are tied for the league in sacks with 36. And oh yeah - The Bengals have given up 38 sacks thus far and the left side of the oline is out. Yeah, I would bench him.
Cedric Benson – At times, Benson has played very well though never great. Against the number 1 rush defense, I cannot stress enough how bad an idea it is to start him. Less than 69yds per game? Check. Just 4 TDs the season? Check. Bench for Benson? Check.
TJ Houshmandzedah – In a PPR league Housh has been money almost every week. They will still try to get him the ball and he’s probably one of your better WRs right now. He is the one person I might start on this squad. I’m still nervous and you cannot expect a ton, but he should get some catches and in a PPR league he is probably going to be a good start there, while nonPPR is a really tough matchup and it may not be worth your time to start him, though again, you may not have a whole heckuva lot of choice.
Chad Johnson – Has just been announced as inactive - don't know why, doesn't matter. get him out.
Chris Henry - Will get the start in Johnson's place. Still not worth a start unless you are very desperate.
Cedric Benson – At times, Benson has played very well though never great. Against the number 1 rush defense, I cannot stress enough how bad an idea it is to start him. Less than 69yds per game? Check. Just 4 TDs the season? Check. Bench for Benson? Check.
TJ Houshmandzedah – In a PPR league Housh has been money almost every week. They will still try to get him the ball and he’s probably one of your better WRs right now. He is the one person I might start on this squad. I’m still nervous and you cannot expect a ton, but he should get some catches and in a PPR league he is probably going to be a good start there, while nonPPR is a really tough matchup and it may not be worth your time to start him, though again, you may not have a whole heckuva lot of choice.
Chad Johnson – Has just been announced as inactive - don't know why, doesn't matter. get him out.
Chris Henry - Will get the start in Johnson's place. Still not worth a start unless you are very desperate.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals - Steelers Breakdown
Ben Roethlisberger – Big Ben has been able to put yards up lately, but he hasn’t been able to get the ball into the hands of his WRs for a TD – however, he HAS been able to get the ball into the hands of the opposing secondary, throwing 8 INTs in the last 5 games, and only 3 TDs. He faces a Bengals team that has steadily – though slowly – gotten better as the weeks have gone on. They have been able to limit passers to just over 200 yards a game but are not getting a ton of pressure on the QB (just 11 sacks) and aren’t forcing too many turnovers (just 8). They have also given 14 TDs up to date and while many of those were earlier in the season, they do give them up regularly and this could be the week that Roethlisberger’s TDs end up better than his yards. I think he’s a fine start, depending on your matchup.
Willie Parker – One reason Big Ben might have a subpar passing game yardage-wise could be a large game from Willie Parker. Parker came out firing on all cylinders in a sloppy game against the Chargers last week, and is looking a defense giving 131+ yards a game, and a dozen TDs right in the face. Parker is a good start this week, a nice RB2 or flex at least and maybe more depending upon your matchups.
Hines Ward – Ward has been pretty darn streaky this season, but is on a two game tear with over 100 yards per game. Roethlisberger is certainly looking at him a ton the last few games – and while Parker will probably control things on the ground, Ward is often Big Ben’s go to guy on short and tough crossing routes. A decent WR3 or flex depending on your roster and he should put up ok yards. He might get a TD in the redzone, but no guarantees.
Santonio Holmes – Holmes has had, for the most part, an awful year. Between his one game benching and the subpar receptions, he's been a shaky start. Could he light up the Bengals? Yup. Do I want to risk it this early? Probably not. He is a borderline WR4 – until he can prove to me he can be even a little consistent I’m not partial to him going into your lineup.
Nate Washington – There was time during the earlier part of the season where they were using
Mewelde Moore – Moore might have some very thin value in an emergency but with Parker running the way he did this weekend, it looks grim.
Heath Miller – Fresh off an injury I would hate to have to start him but let’s face it – the TE position has been a real pain in the rear in FF this year. I would rather sit him but if you have a rotating group of donuts each week, he’s worth a flier. He practiced today and so he should play.
Thursday, November 13, 2008
SAMMY MORRIS ACTIVE
I don't know how much he will play but it certainly adds another level of difficulty for Law Firm tonight. Benjarvus Green-Ellis may have less carries against a very tough run D.
New York Jets at New England Patriots Fantasy Breakdown - Patriots
Patriots Face a Team Finally Jelling -
The Jets’ defensive unit is really starting to come together. While they have at times had lapses, overall it seems that the guys in the trenches (both oline and d) have stepped up of late. In the new style Gang Green, the Patriots find themselves face a solid overall unit and a team much better than when the met earlier this season. The Jets rush defense is 5th in the league and only allows 74.6 yds a game, with only 7 TDs to date. And with the Patriots running back core banged up, it could be tough sledding for the ground game. As for the pass defense, the Jets are 13th, giving 223 pass yards a game along with 11 TDs in the air. They are tied with Atlanta, Indy and Kansas City at 10th in league with 11 INTs and are 2nd in sacks with 31. They can bring the heat and can be opportunistic on defense.
Again, keep in mind that this game may be played in the rain and could come down to the line play – it probably will regardless – and the rushing attack. If it rains, you might bump all the pass numbers down a tick, save maybe Welker for the short yardage work and maybe Faulk for the same reason.
Did I just reuse a paragraph? Maaaaaaybe.
Cassel – I’m not a fan of rolling Cassel out in this one. I respect he is better now at protecting the ball. I think he knows what Moss and Welker look like so they have actually seen passes. But I think the Jets will keep some real pressure on him and force him into throwing away or throwing where and when he shouldn’t. Unless you are very much up against it with other matchups, I would avoid him this week. The potential rain only worsens it.
Randy Moss – Moss and Cassel have been connecting more the last few weeks but Randy still isn’t blowing up in non-PPR leagues. Frankly he isn’t killing in PPR leagues either. If he draws Revis, you can count on a shoddy fantasy output unless he gets one long. If he can get against Lowery or split zones or coverage, he could make some nice plays. But Cassel and the offense are more dink and dunk than bomb which limits his upside. I think the matchup is a wee risky. Do remember that Randy does love the spotlight and this is a huge game for the division with far ranging implications for the AFC. He often shows up for these events and could have a MNF style game. Don't love the matchup though.
Wes Welker – At some point preseason, we didn’t think Welker would repeat last season but he might. Well, he is on pace to catch an amount similar to last year’s. He fits in with the Cassel short game that is being played and so he is the best bet in the passing game, even against a tough secondary. In a PPR, he’s the guy you want – but weather, defense and Cassel make me want to warn you that he’s a lower end WR2 or 3 in a PPR league this Thursday and to be careful.
BenJarvus Green-Ellis – ‘Law Firm’ may have his work cut out for him this week. If it rains, he could see a huge workload but it may not amount to much against a tough Jets D. Bench him if you can and try not to put yourself in a position where you need to pray for a random TD.
Kevin Faulk – Short yardage stuff is nice and his value is probably more along the lines of PPR leagues than non-PPR. Still he may get some short yardage work, mud or no. Aside from last week vs Buffalo, Faulk had caught Faulk has been targeted quite often and occasionally made some big gains. A very risky flex, however.
As I said with the Jets post I am cautious with my Thursday starts, especially in this matchup. I think this could devolve into a chess-match oline/dline struggle in the trenches which could be exciting to watch (well to some of us it might be) but not explosive offensively. I think this game could go either way - it's tough to win in New England but the Jets have begun to come together and now face their biggest challenge. If they can get out of their own way, they can win this. But you can't count the Pats out, not until the final whistle.
The Jets’ defensive unit is really starting to come together. While they have at times had lapses, overall it seems that the guys in the trenches (both oline and d) have stepped up of late. In the new style Gang Green, the Patriots find themselves face a solid overall unit and a team much better than when the met earlier this season. The Jets rush defense is 5th in the league and only allows 74.6 yds a game, with only 7 TDs to date. And with the Patriots running back core banged up, it could be tough sledding for the ground game. As for the pass defense, the Jets are 13th, giving 223 pass yards a game along with 11 TDs in the air. They are tied with Atlanta, Indy and Kansas City at 10th in league with 11 INTs and are 2nd in sacks with 31. They can bring the heat and can be opportunistic on defense.
Again, keep in mind that this game may be played in the rain and could come down to the line play – it probably will regardless – and the rushing attack. If it rains, you might bump all the pass numbers down a tick, save maybe Welker for the short yardage work and maybe Faulk for the same reason.
Did I just reuse a paragraph? Maaaaaaybe.
Cassel – I’m not a fan of rolling Cassel out in this one. I respect he is better now at protecting the ball. I think he knows what Moss and Welker look like so they have actually seen passes. But I think the Jets will keep some real pressure on him and force him into throwing away or throwing where and when he shouldn’t. Unless you are very much up against it with other matchups, I would avoid him this week. The potential rain only worsens it.
Randy Moss – Moss and Cassel have been connecting more the last few weeks but Randy still isn’t blowing up in non-PPR leagues. Frankly he isn’t killing in PPR leagues either. If he draws Revis, you can count on a shoddy fantasy output unless he gets one long. If he can get against Lowery or split zones or coverage, he could make some nice plays. But Cassel and the offense are more dink and dunk than bomb which limits his upside. I think the matchup is a wee risky. Do remember that Randy does love the spotlight and this is a huge game for the division with far ranging implications for the AFC. He often shows up for these events and could have a MNF style game. Don't love the matchup though.
Wes Welker – At some point preseason, we didn’t think Welker would repeat last season but he might. Well, he is on pace to catch an amount similar to last year’s. He fits in with the Cassel short game that is being played and so he is the best bet in the passing game, even against a tough secondary. In a PPR, he’s the guy you want – but weather, defense and Cassel make me want to warn you that he’s a lower end WR2 or 3 in a PPR league this Thursday and to be careful.
BenJarvus Green-Ellis – ‘Law Firm’ may have his work cut out for him this week. If it rains, he could see a huge workload but it may not amount to much against a tough Jets D. Bench him if you can and try not to put yourself in a position where you need to pray for a random TD.
Kevin Faulk – Short yardage stuff is nice and his value is probably more along the lines of PPR leagues than non-PPR. Still he may get some short yardage work, mud or no. Aside from last week vs Buffalo, Faulk had caught Faulk has been targeted quite often and occasionally made some big gains. A very risky flex, however.
As I said with the Jets post I am cautious with my Thursday starts, especially in this matchup. I think this could devolve into a chess-match oline/dline struggle in the trenches which could be exciting to watch (well to some of us it might be) but not explosive offensively. I think this game could go either way - it's tough to win in New England but the Jets have begun to come together and now face their biggest challenge. If they can get out of their own way, they can win this. But you can't count the Pats out, not until the final whistle.
New York Jets at New England Patriots Fantasy Breakdown - Jets
Breakdown
The Jets offense Faces a Tough Challenge–
The challenge is as much mental as it is physical – maybe moreso. The Pats tend to have the Jets' number and will be at home, always a major advantage for them. The Pats' pass defense will be sorely tested by Favre & co – which is good and bad for both sides. The Pats have given up the 6th most TDs in the league through the air at 14, but they have the 22nd most sacks with just 16. They also have the 8th most INTs with 10 and that is Favre’s Achilles heel if anything this year. Teams average about 200 yds through the air against New England's D, which is better than average against the pass. They can be stout against the run also – averaging 100yds and a mere 4 TDs on the ground. Keep in mind that all those TDs came in one game against Ronnie Brown. They did just lose Adalius Thomas though, which will negatively affect the Pats' pass rush as he had the most sacks on the team at 5. This is a defense that lacks playmakers but will always get more out of the sum than its parts.
Keep in mind that this game may be played in the rain although the severity of the rain (if it arrives at all) is in question. It could come down to the line and the rushing attack regardless of weather. If it rains, you might bump all the pass numbers down a tick, save maybe Keller for the short yardage work and maybe Washington for the same reason.
Favre – He could go big or have a rough night – figure he hits the average for QBs against the Pats – 200+ but not by much – and maybe a couple TDs at most. He needs to protect the ball and make smart decisions, not turn the ball over which he has done all too frequently. If he cannot protect the ball, game over. I am cautious about starting him as I think the matchup is completely hit or moss. A Patriots pass rush minus Adalius Thomas could give Favre more time and the oline is playing much better than it did early in the season but Favre presses sometimes and if the Jets trail, he may try to make too much happen. I would be happier if my matchups elsewhere were good and pass this week.
Cotchery/Coles – I have been splitting the difference with these guys as that’s what Favre is doing. They can both hover around 50 yds, each have a shot at a TD and then again, they may not. In a blowout last week, neither was looked at much – 1 catch, 3 targets for Coles, 1 catch on 1 target for Cotchery. In a ppr I lean towards Cotch as he gets more looks (7,13,8,1 targets over the last four games) vs Coles (5,11,5,2). Coles has more TDs and gets more looks overall in the redzone (14 targets to Cotchery’s 10) but neither has a ton of TDs. I expected more and have been disappointed with the production to daye, even knowing Favre wouldn't hit stride right away. I think that one of the two will have a good game – but it’s hard to say who. Both are WR2/3 – Cotchery in a PPR is def a 2.
Keller – I bring the rookie TE up because I looked at the stats today in response to an email about him. Keller is starting to gather momentum. He has 4 red zone targets in the last 2 games and is 4th behind Coles, Cotchery and Washington for targets this season – 3rd the last 3 weeks. He’s heating up and may get some work short here.
Thomas Jones – Jones will likely be a workhorse here but no more than RB2 for you. They will need to control the clock and control the ball 0- I figure 20 or so carries – but likely no 100yds and probably no TD. RB2/flex
Washington – flex guy – may get used in the flat and on screens to keep the defenses honest but very risky to start this early in the week.
Overall, I am cautious about who I start here. As I always say, Thursday is no day for risks. Most of the Jets are risks. Even if they win (and I do believe they have an excellent chance to make that happen) the score could be low.
Back in a few with the Patriots break down.
The Jets offense Faces a Tough Challenge–
The challenge is as much mental as it is physical – maybe moreso. The Pats tend to have the Jets' number and will be at home, always a major advantage for them. The Pats' pass defense will be sorely tested by Favre & co – which is good and bad for both sides. The Pats have given up the 6th most TDs in the league through the air at 14, but they have the 22nd most sacks with just 16. They also have the 8th most INTs with 10 and that is Favre’s Achilles heel if anything this year. Teams average about 200 yds through the air against New England's D, which is better than average against the pass. They can be stout against the run also – averaging 100yds and a mere 4 TDs on the ground. Keep in mind that all those TDs came in one game against Ronnie Brown. They did just lose Adalius Thomas though, which will negatively affect the Pats' pass rush as he had the most sacks on the team at 5. This is a defense that lacks playmakers but will always get more out of the sum than its parts.
Keep in mind that this game may be played in the rain although the severity of the rain (if it arrives at all) is in question. It could come down to the line and the rushing attack regardless of weather. If it rains, you might bump all the pass numbers down a tick, save maybe Keller for the short yardage work and maybe Washington for the same reason.
Favre – He could go big or have a rough night – figure he hits the average for QBs against the Pats – 200+ but not by much – and maybe a couple TDs at most. He needs to protect the ball and make smart decisions, not turn the ball over which he has done all too frequently. If he cannot protect the ball, game over. I am cautious about starting him as I think the matchup is completely hit or moss. A Patriots pass rush minus Adalius Thomas could give Favre more time and the oline is playing much better than it did early in the season but Favre presses sometimes and if the Jets trail, he may try to make too much happen. I would be happier if my matchups elsewhere were good and pass this week.
Cotchery/Coles – I have been splitting the difference with these guys as that’s what Favre is doing. They can both hover around 50 yds, each have a shot at a TD and then again, they may not. In a blowout last week, neither was looked at much – 1 catch, 3 targets for Coles, 1 catch on 1 target for Cotchery. In a ppr I lean towards Cotch as he gets more looks (7,13,8,1 targets over the last four games) vs Coles (5,11,5,2). Coles has more TDs and gets more looks overall in the redzone (14 targets to Cotchery’s 10) but neither has a ton of TDs. I expected more and have been disappointed with the production to daye, even knowing Favre wouldn't hit stride right away. I think that one of the two will have a good game – but it’s hard to say who. Both are WR2/3 – Cotchery in a PPR is def a 2.
Keller – I bring the rookie TE up because I looked at the stats today in response to an email about him. Keller is starting to gather momentum. He has 4 red zone targets in the last 2 games and is 4th behind Coles, Cotchery and Washington for targets this season – 3rd the last 3 weeks. He’s heating up and may get some work short here.
Thomas Jones – Jones will likely be a workhorse here but no more than RB2 for you. They will need to control the clock and control the ball 0- I figure 20 or so carries – but likely no 100yds and probably no TD. RB2/flex
Washington – flex guy – may get used in the flat and on screens to keep the defenses honest but very risky to start this early in the week.
Overall, I am cautious about who I start here. As I always say, Thursday is no day for risks. Most of the Jets are risks. Even if they win (and I do believe they have an excellent chance to make that happen) the score could be low.
Back in a few with the Patriots break down.
Thursday, November 6, 2008
Broncos vs Browns Breakdown - part the second
So when we last left our intrepid Blurb, Denver was all broken down. Now, we'll take a look at Cleveland and see what is worth starting - if anything - tonight.
Browns
Passing - If you were going to stick a first time QB into a game, this is a matchup you'd think about. In fact, you have to wonder if Crennel was just biding his time until this game to give Quinn a shot at survival. Well, maybe and maybe not. The Donkey bring the heat - they are ranked 9th in the league in sacks with 20, though the Browns have been stingy giving up sacks, only allowing 11 so far. Still, the Denver pass rush is pretty solid. That said, not much else is. Champ Bailey is hurt and he was about the best they had in a shaky secondary. The Doncos average a hefty 243 yards allowed per game, have given 12 TDs up and only picked off 3 passes. That's bad, maybe even worse than bad. This is a good matchup for the Cleveland passing offense, but as you will see, they have their own question marks.
Brady Quinn - Come all without, come all within - You'll not see nothing like the mighty Quinn. With apoligies to Manfred Mann (and my readership) I HAVE seen something like the Mighty Brady Quinn before, just not in the Pros. Quinn played well in college though he did turn the ball over more than his fair share. He has decent arm stength, though won't be hitting anyone from his own goal line in the opposing end zone anytime soon. The fact is, we have no idea what Quinn can do at this level. Add to it the shaky state of the Browns offense - fragile Stallworth, cement-hands Edwards and occasionally angry and staph infected Kellen Winslow - and who knows what he can do. If you were caught with your pants down due to Schaub, Orton and Anderson and are desperate for a start Quinn is a guy with a good matchup and lots of question marks. You can start him in a desperate pinch but I would rather not. Then again, Buffalo in Week 11 is pretty grim too. Could be a long year for the Mighty Quinn.
Braylon Edwards - Edwards was far and away the most targeted guy in the offense through the first 9 weeks. Too bad that a) he is catching a horrific 40% of his targets and b) with Quinn in there, all past history is out the window. It isn't going to help Edwards' confidence to have a first time signal caller starting. Still, I think this is a game where Edwads can suceed. The Broncos secondary is pretty bad and he should get the seperation he needs to break a few big plays. While Edwards is no better than a #2 or 3 most weeks, he has a fair chance to play better than average this week.
Kellen Winslow - Really, the only other threat in the pass game, Winslow has been angry and bitter since his staph infection. But with a new QB, Winslow may have a shot to do some damage. Question is, does he care? There are multiple TEs I like better than Winslow - Clark, Gonzo, Gates, Daniels - but as bad as many other TEs have been, unless you have those guys, Winslow's upside and ability make him a guy you can start.
Rushing
The Broncos rush D isn't much better than the pass D, giving up 144 yards a game on the ground and 10 Tds. In the last two games (bracketing the bye) they have allowed 300 yards. That would be.... not good. Good matchup for the Browns though.
Jamal Lewis - Lewis has been busting his tail every game this year and really showing me that he has some gas left in the tank. He may be old, but I think he still looks pretty good. The offensive line however has not been very helpful. Most of his points have been coming from dogged determination on Lewis' part. The Broncos are giving up a bunch of points week to week to fantasy running backs and Lewis' hard work should pay off this week. I think he;s a solid RB2 with upside and the only big question is - will Quinn be effective enough to keep 8 men out of a box. I think he will be just good enough to keep things clear for Lewis. Hopefully the Browns D will keep things close enough so that Lewis gets touches. I think Lewis is a solid start though and would encourage you to do so, depending upon who else you have in your stable.
That's it for now - see you tonight on the Drive Block and tomorrow for the afternoon Fantasy Show!
Browns
Passing - If you were going to stick a first time QB into a game, this is a matchup you'd think about. In fact, you have to wonder if Crennel was just biding his time until this game to give Quinn a shot at survival. Well, maybe and maybe not. The Donkey bring the heat - they are ranked 9th in the league in sacks with 20, though the Browns have been stingy giving up sacks, only allowing 11 so far. Still, the Denver pass rush is pretty solid. That said, not much else is. Champ Bailey is hurt and he was about the best they had in a shaky secondary. The Doncos average a hefty 243 yards allowed per game, have given 12 TDs up and only picked off 3 passes. That's bad, maybe even worse than bad. This is a good matchup for the Cleveland passing offense, but as you will see, they have their own question marks.
Brady Quinn - Come all without, come all within - You'll not see nothing like the mighty Quinn. With apoligies to Manfred Mann (and my readership) I HAVE seen something like the Mighty Brady Quinn before, just not in the Pros. Quinn played well in college though he did turn the ball over more than his fair share. He has decent arm stength, though won't be hitting anyone from his own goal line in the opposing end zone anytime soon. The fact is, we have no idea what Quinn can do at this level. Add to it the shaky state of the Browns offense - fragile Stallworth, cement-hands Edwards and occasionally angry and staph infected Kellen Winslow - and who knows what he can do. If you were caught with your pants down due to Schaub, Orton and Anderson and are desperate for a start Quinn is a guy with a good matchup and lots of question marks. You can start him in a desperate pinch but I would rather not. Then again, Buffalo in Week 11 is pretty grim too. Could be a long year for the Mighty Quinn.
Braylon Edwards - Edwards was far and away the most targeted guy in the offense through the first 9 weeks. Too bad that a) he is catching a horrific 40% of his targets and b) with Quinn in there, all past history is out the window. It isn't going to help Edwards' confidence to have a first time signal caller starting. Still, I think this is a game where Edwads can suceed. The Broncos secondary is pretty bad and he should get the seperation he needs to break a few big plays. While Edwards is no better than a #2 or 3 most weeks, he has a fair chance to play better than average this week.
Kellen Winslow - Really, the only other threat in the pass game, Winslow has been angry and bitter since his staph infection. But with a new QB, Winslow may have a shot to do some damage. Question is, does he care? There are multiple TEs I like better than Winslow - Clark, Gonzo, Gates, Daniels - but as bad as many other TEs have been, unless you have those guys, Winslow's upside and ability make him a guy you can start.
Rushing
The Broncos rush D isn't much better than the pass D, giving up 144 yards a game on the ground and 10 Tds. In the last two games (bracketing the bye) they have allowed 300 yards. That would be.... not good. Good matchup for the Browns though.
Jamal Lewis - Lewis has been busting his tail every game this year and really showing me that he has some gas left in the tank. He may be old, but I think he still looks pretty good. The offensive line however has not been very helpful. Most of his points have been coming from dogged determination on Lewis' part. The Broncos are giving up a bunch of points week to week to fantasy running backs and Lewis' hard work should pay off this week. I think he;s a solid RB2 with upside and the only big question is - will Quinn be effective enough to keep 8 men out of a box. I think he will be just good enough to keep things clear for Lewis. Hopefully the Browns D will keep things close enough so that Lewis gets touches. I think Lewis is a solid start though and would encourage you to do so, depending upon who else you have in your stable.
That's it for now - see you tonight on the Drive Block and tomorrow for the afternoon Fantasy Show!
Broncos vs Browns Breakdown
So here's my takes on the fantasy players for tonight's game. I will be trying to do this every Wednesday night/Thursday morning to give you my latest and greatest takes on the Thursday night games.
My philosophy for Thursday games - start guys who are your studs or are very consistent. We have the least amount of info by Thursday and it's hard to know who is or isn't ready to go sometimes. So if you are on the fence witha flex guy, usually I like to go with a Sunday player rather than a Thursday.
This post is for Denver - Cleveland will be along a little later....
Denver -
Pass Game - Cleveland is actually a slightly better than average pass defense, ranked 13th vs the pass and while they have given up 9 TDs to offenses but also have 9 picks - 7th in the league. However, they are struggling to get pressure on the QB - only 13 sacks so far. Also, the last three games they have coughed up almost 700 yards and Joe Flacco beat them up for 236 and a pair of TDs. I think this is a pretty good matchup - the Broncs oline is struggling a bit but they will probably win this war this week.
Jay Cutler - He's had some real issues holding onto the ball or getting it to the receivers not the opposition. Still this is a pretty good mathcup for him. He's a start against a secondary that is opportunistic but should give him enough time to find his receivers. He may have a pick but should more than offset that with @250 yards and a Td or two.
Brandon Marshall - Marshall was shut down and locked up last weekend and killed his owners with 2(!) catches for 27 (!) yards. But he got a long TD called back on a ticky tacky pass interference call and while that's not a ton of catches the stats would have been much better. He's getting an average of 10+ targets most games and while expectations were over-inflated, he is still a solid WR. He hasn't seen the end zone since week 4 - this week I think that could change. He's not going to be the #1 Wr this week in my opinion, but I think despite the bad game last week he will be back to his usual 7-10 points (add 6 or 7 in PPR) with the possibility of a TD this week.
Eddie Royal - Royal is still having a heck of a season even when he seems to be quiet. He's only had a pair of bad games really, and he usually gets @ 9 targets. He's a good flex or #3 pr 4 play depending upon your bench. This week I think you can use him BUT don't plug him in above his flex or # spot.
Other guys - Brandon Stokely is a a guy who can put up good numbers but ayou aren't sure when, so unless you are strapped at WR, I would look elsewhere..... might be back, we'll hear more today but I have to hesitate to use him unless you (like me in one league) are ina tight corner...... Darrell Jackson.... HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA... no seriously, don't start him..... (edited to add) Tony Scheffler - if he is in, I might be tempted to play him, but I always hesitate to start a guy post-injury (unless his name is Anquan). Scheffler is a guy I want to wait a week on, even though I could miss a big game here.
Rush Game -
The Cleveland rush D is just this side of brutal, ranked 28th in the league and coughing up 148 yards on the ground with a nice 9 TDs so far against opposing ball carriers. Salivating yet? Well, not so fast. Andre Hall and Michael Pittman are now on the IR, we've got a banged up Selvin Young and a rookie Ryan Torain. Also there have been some injuries to the Oline. A great matchup that may have a lot less fantasy value than it should.
Selvin Young - I think Young may not play. He's banged up and as of now, I haven't heard he is practicing fully yet. As he is questionable, this is real simple - don't start him, even if he is playing. I don't want a Willis McGahee/Steven Jackson type point total (0 or 2) to start the week off. Avoid the Noid.
Ryan Torain - Torain didn't look all that great BUT he did only get three carries. Here is a guy who needs to learn pass protection, the speed of the game, all his plays and all that is entailed in being a starting Rb in the NFL. Now, plenty of rookies (Forte, Johnson, Slaton) have performed. And Torain will probably get a ton of carries. He's risky, but he's healthy and worth a start. Now, the most I would start him as is as a flex. Don't overvalue - and if you have a good matchup elsewhere I might be tempted to go that route. But we just have no idea if he will play well - but the matchup and situation make him a start with upside.
Peyton Hillis - Bear with me here - I would NOT START HIM this week. Too much a chance he disappears again into the ether. BUT - and this is vital - you may want him on your bench. He is the only guy healthy here aside from Torain and if Torain struggles, Hillis could get more work. He blocks well, has great hands and can clearly catch the ball. Like Torain he is a rookie but unlike Torain he has game experiance. Will he repeat last week. Unlikely, hence my do not start him statement. But even though the Denver backfield is no longer DENVER RB and more denver rb it's still worth watching for a starter late in the season.
That's it for Denver - we are going to be back later with Cleveland's prospects for tonight.
My philosophy for Thursday games - start guys who are your studs or are very consistent. We have the least amount of info by Thursday and it's hard to know who is or isn't ready to go sometimes. So if you are on the fence witha flex guy, usually I like to go with a Sunday player rather than a Thursday.
This post is for Denver - Cleveland will be along a little later....
Denver -
Pass Game - Cleveland is actually a slightly better than average pass defense, ranked 13th vs the pass and while they have given up 9 TDs to offenses but also have 9 picks - 7th in the league. However, they are struggling to get pressure on the QB - only 13 sacks so far. Also, the last three games they have coughed up almost 700 yards and Joe Flacco beat them up for 236 and a pair of TDs. I think this is a pretty good matchup - the Broncs oline is struggling a bit but they will probably win this war this week.
Jay Cutler - He's had some real issues holding onto the ball or getting it to the receivers not the opposition. Still this is a pretty good mathcup for him. He's a start against a secondary that is opportunistic but should give him enough time to find his receivers. He may have a pick but should more than offset that with @250 yards and a Td or two.
Brandon Marshall - Marshall was shut down and locked up last weekend and killed his owners with 2(!) catches for 27 (!) yards. But he got a long TD called back on a ticky tacky pass interference call and while that's not a ton of catches the stats would have been much better. He's getting an average of 10+ targets most games and while expectations were over-inflated, he is still a solid WR. He hasn't seen the end zone since week 4 - this week I think that could change. He's not going to be the #1 Wr this week in my opinion, but I think despite the bad game last week he will be back to his usual 7-10 points (add 6 or 7 in PPR) with the possibility of a TD this week.
Eddie Royal - Royal is still having a heck of a season even when he seems to be quiet. He's only had a pair of bad games really, and he usually gets @ 9 targets. He's a good flex or #3 pr 4 play depending upon your bench. This week I think you can use him BUT don't plug him in above his flex or # spot.
Other guys - Brandon Stokely is a a guy who can put up good numbers but ayou aren't sure when, so unless you are strapped at WR, I would look elsewhere..... might be back, we'll hear more today but I have to hesitate to use him unless you (like me in one league) are ina tight corner...... Darrell Jackson.... HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA... no seriously, don't start him..... (edited to add) Tony Scheffler - if he is in, I might be tempted to play him, but I always hesitate to start a guy post-injury (unless his name is Anquan). Scheffler is a guy I want to wait a week on, even though I could miss a big game here.
Rush Game -
The Cleveland rush D is just this side of brutal, ranked 28th in the league and coughing up 148 yards on the ground with a nice 9 TDs so far against opposing ball carriers. Salivating yet? Well, not so fast. Andre Hall and Michael Pittman are now on the IR, we've got a banged up Selvin Young and a rookie Ryan Torain. Also there have been some injuries to the Oline. A great matchup that may have a lot less fantasy value than it should.
Selvin Young - I think Young may not play. He's banged up and as of now, I haven't heard he is practicing fully yet. As he is questionable, this is real simple - don't start him, even if he is playing. I don't want a Willis McGahee/Steven Jackson type point total (0 or 2) to start the week off. Avoid the Noid.
Ryan Torain - Torain didn't look all that great BUT he did only get three carries. Here is a guy who needs to learn pass protection, the speed of the game, all his plays and all that is entailed in being a starting Rb in the NFL. Now, plenty of rookies (Forte, Johnson, Slaton) have performed. And Torain will probably get a ton of carries. He's risky, but he's healthy and worth a start. Now, the most I would start him as is as a flex. Don't overvalue - and if you have a good matchup elsewhere I might be tempted to go that route. But we just have no idea if he will play well - but the matchup and situation make him a start with upside.
Peyton Hillis - Bear with me here - I would NOT START HIM this week. Too much a chance he disappears again into the ether. BUT - and this is vital - you may want him on your bench. He is the only guy healthy here aside from Torain and if Torain struggles, Hillis could get more work. He blocks well, has great hands and can clearly catch the ball. Like Torain he is a rookie but unlike Torain he has game experiance. Will he repeat last week. Unlikely, hence my do not start him statement. But even though the Denver backfield is no longer DENVER RB and more denver rb it's still worth watching for a starter late in the season.
That's it for Denver - we are going to be back later with Cleveland's prospects for tonight.
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