Saturday, April 25, 2009
Shock And Awe: The Winners and Losers for Day 1 of the 2009 NFL Draft
Still, by the end of Saturday, it's a worthwhile endeavor to examine some teams who have ended up looking smart and others....
Well, not so much.
So with the realization in mind that we still don't know everything - here are the teams who made our jaws drop, though not always for good reasons.
The Shock
Oakland Raiders
Maybe Al Davis and his Raiders will prove us all wrong, but right now their draft can be summed up in an exchange I saw between Sam Farmer of the Los Angeles Times (where the Raiders once resided) and Raiders beat writer Jason Jones of the Sacramento Bee (which is close to Oakland i suppose).
Farmer: Why were the Raiders reaching like that in the second?
Jones: They reach because that's what they do.
They weren't going to go offensive tackle, despite the need, because that's not really the Raiders way.
And I knew they weren't going to grab Crabtree, whether or not he was the best wide receiver on the board at the time. Crabtree's lack of timed 40 speed made it impossible because Davis is crazy for speed like the bird in that cereal commercial is coo-coo for cocoa puffs.
But I never thought he would bypass Missouri's Jeremy Maclin, who had the speed and a more developed game. I'm a little nonplussed.
Don't get me wrong, I don't wish Heyward-Bey a failed career and he will probably turn out ok. But picking him up at 7, when they could have traded back and picked him later?
That's just not achieving maximum value.
Worse, the team manages to follow it up with an even bigger reach in choosing Ohio Safety Michael Mitchell, a guy most people didn't even have ranked in their drafts much less the second round.
Mitchell also may develop into a solid player, but right now he looks like a workout warrior and a huge reach as the third safety off the board behind Patrick Chung of Oregon and Louis Delmas of Western Michigan.
It's one thing to fall in love with a player. It's another to waste a pick five rounds early.
The Raiders have five picks on Sunday, two in the fourth round. They can recover, given the tremendous value still on the board, but if they keep picking like this, they might as well throw darts at a list on the wall.
Dallas Cowboys
How can I say it's a bad draft when they didn't draft anyone?
Bad enough the Cowboys didn't have a pick for the first round due to last year's wheeling and dealing, but they then traded out of the second.
Meanwhile, value continued to tumble by them in the form of solid safeties, wide receivers and defensive ends.
Maybe it's not bad in the sense the Raiders draft was on Saturday but it's shocking to watch the usually wheeling Cowboys nuetered and missing out on the value on the board.
Cleveland Browns
The Browns made a big move back when the Jets traded for the fifth pick and Mark Sanchez (more on that in a minute) and were poised to grab some great value all day long.
Instead, they kept moving backwards accumulating more and more picks. And when they did spend them, it's questionable whether they took the best value on the board.
I can't argue with the selection of Alex Mack. The center from Cal is a versatile lineman who can work at almost any position along the line. And Brian Robiskie is a polished, fast receiver who runs a solid route tree and will contribute early, especially if Braylon Edwards is traded on day two.
But the Browns can't rush the passer and need a linebacker or top flight defensive lineman.
I say need because while Mack is a great center, USC linebackers Clay Matthews and Rey Maualuga as well as Ohio State linebacker James Laurinaitus were on the board still.
Maualuga was in fact still on the board when Robiskie was picked. While offensive line and wide receiver were needs, the pass rush was a bigger one and with several very good linebackers on the board, the Browns chose to fill less important needs.
They also bypassed shoring up their need at cornerback by letting Vontae Davis and Alphonso Smith sneak away as well.
And as much as I think Hawaii defensive end/linebacker convert David Veikune will be a good upside pick, wide receiver Mohamed Massaquoi was a luxury, especially behind the Robiskie pick.
Massaquoi may become a good possession receiver down the road, but they could have grabbed a corner, safety or even replace Winslow at tight end.
For a team with so many holes who is rebuilding, it seems like they filled few of them with four picks in the first two rounds.
The Browns have four more picks on Sunday - one in the fourth and three in the six. Lots of defensive talent remains on the board and I hope they can recover from a lackluster day one.
The Awe
New York Jets
Jet Nation is a tad split over the selection of USC quarterback Mark Sanchez, especially given the talent that slid out of the first round and through the second. But when you look at the price they paid, it's more than reasonable for a possible franchise quarterback.
Defensive end Kenyon Coleman, quarterback Brett Ratliff and safety Abram Elam were players who in all likelihood would get cut before camp or in Ratliff's case, clearly hadn't impressed the new regime all that much.
Aside from that, adding the second rounder to a swap that spanned twelve spots between first rounders is a marginal price to pay.
The Jets have put themselves in a position where they cannot make many mistakes on day two though. They have four more picks on Sunday spread across four of the five rounds.
As I said with the Browns, there are many value picks to be had but the Jets have to be conservative to a great extent. They already rolled their dice once and that's as much as they can risk.
Detroit Lions
I will openly admit - and it's a shock to nobody who has read my work the last few months - that I do not agree with the Stafford pick. It's not an awful pick - just not one I believe had to happen this year.
Yet, Stafford could develop into a nice franchise quarterback and he is far from awful. While I may not agree with the strategy to rebuild the franchise, it's a solid pick.
On the surface, Brandon Pettigrew at 20 made me wince as well. But, like Stafford, Pettigrew is considered the top at his position and on top of it, he's a tremendous blocker.
He's no offensive tackle but he will be able to stay in and protect Stafford. A pick that is more shrewd than i gave it credit for at first. As Stafford and the oline get better, Pettigrew can release and become more of a pass catching tight end.
Finally, hard hitting cornerback Louis Delmas. Again, top at his position. And Delmas is the type of hard nosed player who could help give this defense a personality - something it greatly lacks.
The Lions are looking to become more physical on the defensive side of the ball and Delmas will bring that in spades. They also need some help in the secondary and this fills that hole.
Three picks. Three players arguably at the top of their class. They may not have filled all their needs but the ones they did fill were given top talent.
With five picks on day two, including the first in round three and another later the same round, the Lions stand to pick up some very good value. They could easily pull someone like Jarron Gilbert or Michael Johnson to help fill the defensive line hole, pick up the top guard on the board in Duke Robinson or even a decent tackle like South Carolina's Jamon Meredith.
New England Patriots
The rich get richer. And richer. And richer.
How the organization ended up with the same amount of picks they started with, but also an embarrassment of riches in players is beyond me, but that's how they end up being the great team they are every year.
Four picks in the second and every one a value.
Patrick Chung, second best safety in the class brings some thump to the secondary and will make receivers pay dearly.
Defensive tackle Ron Brace got overlooked a bit with BJ raji getting the love at Boston College, but will stuff the run as good as anyone in the draft class and is likely to take over for Vince Wilfork at the nose tackle.
Darius Butler, one of the top corners in the draft, probably won't start this coming season but will take over in the aging secondary within the next year or two.
And while Sebastian Vollmer is a project for the offensive line, he will develop into a nice right tackle and used to play tight end, so he has the versatility to move around for trick plays if need be.
And, oh by the way - they have seven more picks. By the end of the draft they may have multiple picks for next years draft as well.
Before I let you go, dear reader, here are a few teams I am on the fence about. Tomorrow could be pivotal for them.
San Francisco 49ers: One pick, but what value. But you better build on Crabtree use your remaining six picks wisely.
Houston Texans: Methodically took care of two key needs with picks of USC LB Clay Matthews and DE Connor Barwin. Six more picks to shore up the corners and get a back to compliment Steve Slaton.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Almost made the Awe list, but as much as I loved watching them grab two very good offensive tackles in Eugene Monroe and Eben Britton, passing on Crabtree and Maclin and then a host of good defensive line prospects makes me wonder if last season's Oline injury woes didn't get in their head too much.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Did you really need to leap up and pay the price you did to move a few spots? Especially since nobody in front of you was likely to grab your choice of Josh Freeman? Six picks on day two and like the Jets you'd beter make them count. Unlike the Jets though, your new franchise quarterback is a far bigger project and has more question marks.
Wednesday, December 3, 2008
Thursday Game Breakdown - Chargers vs Oakland
JaMarcus Russell - This might be a better than average start for Russell, but does it matter when the average is this bad? You can’t start him unless you are in the deepest of trouble. Yes, the Chargers are a fantastically awful 31st vs the pass. But Russell has struggled too early and often to count on in the fantasy playoffs.
Justin Fargas – The run defense here is just good enough to have me worried (15th with only 6 TDs allowed). Michael Turner did get 120 yads but that was Turner and with a good offense. Fargas is not as good and lacks that good offense portion of the formula. And he may split carries with Darren McFadden. A flex? Maybe but a risky one.
Darren McFadden – Boom or Bust with DMac2 – he can put up some numbers but is splitting carries with son of Huggy Bear and having to run with no real threat of passing offense behind him – it could be tough. Again, the Chargers aren’t great against the run, but good enough and McFadden may put up a little of this, a little of that and not enough to be worth the start. He might be an early flex or real low end #2. He is a Hail Mary early in the week and I hate those.
OAK WR core – no thanks. Seriously.
Zach Miller – Miller has been the only somewhat stable thing in the offense for a while and given how shaky many TEs are, he will be a decent though not fantastic start most weeks.
CHARGERS
Phillip Rivers - A few weeks ago this looked like a much better matchup than it does now. But the oline in SD has actually gotten worse and allowed Rivers to get massacred last weekend against
Ladainian Tomlinson – Sure he hasn’t been himself this year. And yes the oline has been sub-par and losing Lorenzo Neal was unfortunate. Still, he is facing the 29th run D and on his own with the same bad oline scored 2 TDs and had 100+ yards. They will key on him and I think – while it will be meh for LT – he will have a good enough day to warrant starting him in all leagues – no lower than the #2 and more than likely worth at least a low level RB1.
Chris Chambers - While he is getting more targets than Jackson, he's still not impressing me and isn't doing anything much fantasy-wise. I wouldn't trust him if I could avoid it, there are better #3s and a few #4s I might like more - including his teammate Jackson. Toomer, Hixon, Ginn are all guys I would rather start.
Vincent Jackson - Jackson is not getting as many targets as he had in the past but the ones he gets are red zone targets. If Chambers could play a little better, opposing secondaries wouldn't be able to blanket Jackson and he would have more room. But he gets some redzone love and between that and his more reliable hands, I don't mind having V-Jax in my lineup as a 4 depending upon other matchups.
Antonio Gates - Gates has not had a very good season, didn't play great last time out (though was the only guy with a receiving TD) and struggled last week. If the Chargers cannot protect Rivers, Gates is in for a long day. I can only hope he plays well - this is almost a bench-worthy matchup right now - with a lesser TE it would be. But Gates can go off - so it will be hard to find someone you trust more often and can count on.
Sunday, October 26, 2008
MCFADDEN OUT
Other notes -
Coles is in for the Jets - no word on Cotchery.
Edited to add - Cotchery will play. If it wasn't for the atrocious run D, the Jets pass offense would go off.
Tuesday, September 30, 2008
Dead Man Walking - Kiffin OUT This Afternoon?
In all seriousness the writing has been o nthe wall for weeks and interviewing folks while the guy you are replacing is still there is a sign that ESPN will be proven right on this. But with Crazy Al Davis, who knows?
Somehow Al will claim 'insubordination' and not pay Kiff and I hope Kiffin sues him because Davis has been about as classy as a fifty cent hooker on this one.
Fire the man or don't but enough with making up lame lies to not have to pay him. Anyone who works for this franchise has been warned what a badly managed, run and cheap franchise it is. Good luck to the next sucker - I mean coach.
Tuesday, September 23, 2008
Raiders Official John Herrera Gets Jumpy
I'll have a follow up post in a mintue but this is brialliant TV.
So yesterday when NFLN interrupted it's loop of the NFL Sunday postgame show for the Kiffin Raiders conference I stopped what I was doing to watch. I'll admit it - I was rubbernecking. How could I not? It was an awkward presser - Kiffin looked like he didn't expect to have been there and might not be any moment. I half expected Davis to come rocketing into frame, fist extended (and bouncing off Kiffin's chin cause let's face it, Davis isn't decking anyone) colliding with Kiffin yelling 'YOU'RE FIRED BIATCH'.
But it didn't happen and my fantasies go unfulfilled.
What happened after the cameras were off - or at least network coverage - is almist as good though.
Read here and here for accounts from writers involved and watching. But this is what Oakland has come to. Verbally assaulting (not so innocent) writers?
Tim Kawakami asked Kiff near the end of the press conference if he felt isolated in the franchise, citing the alleged memo of an ESPN article critical of Kiffin (a rumor from last week during THAT 'Kiff will be fired soon' period).
The best part? Rumor has it Herrera is the one who leaked the ESPN article Kawakami asked Kiffin about. Interesting he took such umbridge no? Anyone here a Telltale Heart?
Friday, September 19, 2008
More RB Woes - McFadden at 70%
According to ESPN and John Clayton, McFadden is only at 70% of full ability right now. If that's the case, he'll definitely see split carries and that thought I had during the News Stampede - about Michael Bush being the last man standing? Could be closer to happening that we thought.
McFadden looked good for a couple of games but we all know how a toe injury can linger all season. Rest is what is needed and even if he plays, they won't overdo it. So look elsewhere for a more stable start - and if you are desperate? Check out M. Bush.
Tuesday, September 2, 2008
Tuesday
A few stories of note this morning:
Baltimore Ravens
Willis McGahee returned to practice on Monday and while it's clear he's still coming back from surgery, what isn't clear is who will start. My money is on rookie Ray Rice, but McGahee could steal carries if he practices well enough. Couple that with the fact that I think either runner will face 8 men in a box as the Bengals dare Joe Flacco to beat them with his arm - and I suspect either running back is a risky choice, even against the Bengals. Speaking of quarterbacks, Troy smith is home from the hospital and has dropped an astonishing 20 pounds. He won't be playing anytime soon, hence the rumors Joey Harrington and former Jaguar Todd Bourman might sign with the team.
Oakland Raiders
Javon Walker also returned to practice yesterday and while NFLN's Adam Shefter reports that he is considered questionable with a hamstring injury, he looked fine, though he did have trainers check his leg out. Walker is not someone I want to have to start at all this week against Denver.
Seattle Seahawks
Matt Hasselback was back at practice Monday and said his back was not going to be a factor going against the Bills week 1. While I am always concerned with a back injury, I may be more concerned with the beat up wide receivers. Hass could be a risky play against an improving Bills secondary.
That's all for now - remember to subscribe to ITunes and get the News Stampede delivered right to your door!
More later....
Tuesday, August 12, 2008
Tuesday Stampede
Onto the NFL -
Arizona Cardinals
Cards coach Ken Whisenhunt says that Matt Leinart has improved his audibling and red zone work and will not be coming out of games at that spot on the field. While I still think Leinart is a shaky choice for a Fantasy QB until he shows me he can be consistent, it's good to hear he won't get 'middle relievered' during an important Fantasy sequence on the field and it does lessen my concerns a bit.
Oakland Raiders
From 'The Sky is Falling' column - rookie RB Darren McFadden fumbled 3 times in Monday's practice. While I don't think think the sky really IS falling (first fumbles of the preseason) you will now recall that one of the issues some people (including me) had with him pre-draft was his 15 fumbles his last year at Arkansas. This was a concern and will continue to be until he proves otherwise, but as these are his first fumbles in camp, I won't worry much, he shouldn't be going so early in drafts that a fumble problem will leave you hanging too badly.
Cincinatti Bengals
Rookie Keith Rivers seems undaunted by missing a teeny bit of camp - he led the Bengals with 7 unassisted tackles Monday night and didn't even start. He will probably be an intriguing late round/waiver pickup in IDP leagues, asssuming people chalked him up to 'rookie' and he went undrafted in the first place. He certainly seems to have stepped right up for the Bengals which they really needed to have happen. Tight End Ben Utecht seems to really be getting those promised looks in the offensive scheme. He had a good Monday night and the staff is putting 'special plays' together for him. I might be starting to believe it.....
San Diego Chargers
Antonio Gates is running but also in a lot of pain, and apparently very frustrated with his lack of progress. He says he will not play early if it damages the season long term, which is good for your overall season, but bad if you want to draft him. If you get Gates, you may be in the position of being forced to take a back-up TE early to cover for him if he's out a few weeks. If you go early on a tight end, my advice is to think of Jason Witten or even Tony Gonzalez. Better yet, get one of the later tier guys and keep an eye on the waiver for value. Amongst the TEs I like later are Jeremy Shockey, Vernon Davis on the earlier side, Owen Daniels, LJ Smith, Ben Utecht on the later side.
Baltimore Ravens
More great news for McGahee owners - the knee he just had scoped? It's the one he has had multiple surgeries on, the one he wrecked in the Fiesta Bowl 5 years ago. He showed up to camp out of shape so rehab is an iffy proposition. Ray Rice continues up the boards as McGahee drops.
That's all for now - questions and comments can go to thunderingblurb@gmail.com as well as the comment section below.
College rankings coming later this afternoon (my afternoon, not the East Coast's).
Friday, July 25, 2008
LaMont Jordan released
A team he mentioned as being a possible target is New England, saying they have signed ex-raiders before and that he wouldn't be shocked in Jordan landed there quickly.
I don't know how that affects Maroney yet - but it certainly could put his long term status there into a little doubt.
Back with more later, but wanted to get that out there as it just was announced.
Thursday, July 24, 2008
Camp Notes - 7/24
Westbrook and Sheppard Both Show to Camp
Well, the worries of Westy not showing up and possibly causing a ruckus are not coming to fruition - Westbrook is too much of a leader in the clubhouse for that to happen. The Eagles will probably try to make something happen for him this season, but for now, he'll play ball. Any worry you had for his fantasy value should vaporize. Lito Sheppard is also unhappy with his contract but he showed for two very different reasons - 1) Asante Samuel doesn't make him expendible but does enable the Iggles to tow a hard line with him and 2) Starting opposite Samuel could make his numbers improve quite a bit, allowing him to make even more bank down the road. I think a lot of IDP owners are looking at Samuel - don't forget Sheppard. He might be a sneaky guy to target late in your draft or auction. Not huge numbers to come, by any means - but he could get targeted more than Samuel.
LaMont Jordan Countdown Starts..... NOW
Jordan and his agent have been waiting for Davis and Kiffin to dump the once highly touted RB on the roadside for months now, even farther back than the Draft and the arrival of Darren McFadden. Why it's taken so long for us to see it happen is anyone's guess - but when it comes to Davis, just be thankful they haven't hired a guy who runs a bed and breakfast to run the defense. Cause that would be madness. Anyway, Jordan and his agent were threatening to appear at Training Camp and force the team's hand (if he shows up the Raiders have to allow him to play - or escort him off the field and pretty much release him quickly thereafter). Rumor has it the Saints and Lions could be interested - I like ProFootballTalk's idea better and it would make for some entertaining TV. Regardless, as PFT points out, Jordan will join a ton of unemployed running backs out there and his fantasy value is only as a long shot hail mary at the end of your draft.
More Raider Problems
As if that isn't enough, both Javon Walker and Ronald Curry (two fairly important weapons for sophomore QB JaMarcus Russell) are gimpy in camp. Jason Jones' Sacramento Bee Blog is saying that Walker and Curry will be held to once a day practices as they nurse themselves back to health. I've said many times how much I dislike Walker thsi year and everything about him right now. His Vegas troubles, his fatness in the OTAs. As much as I dislike him, I like Curry. I think Walker falls flat and Curry gets a lot of looks. That's my thought. Apparently, Jones says that Walker has dropped a whole 8 lbs between the OTAs and now. WOW - somebody call Jenny Craig, I have the next big weight loss program!
Both guys are banged up and hopefully the once a day practices will help heal them, but if you have to draft a Raider reciever - and I will be clear here that NOBODY SAYS YOU HAVE TO - I urge you to look at Curry (who looked good in OTAs) and not Walker (who looked fat and bad in OTAs).
This Just In: Anquan Boldin still Disgruntled
The disgruntling is no real news - we've been tracking this for weeks. But the fact that - according to The East Valley Tribune - Boldin feels 'betrayed' and he's been lied to. Let's play He Says/She Says (or Team Says): Boldin says they promised him a new contract. They say - well nothing. Wisely the Cards haven't really entered into a war of words they can't win, merely reiterating several times how valuable he is to the offense. As was pointed out by Rotoworld, he's already on his second contract since he was drafted - he's already had it altered and extended. They'll try to make him happy, but at some point, enough is enough. How many tiems do you restructure the same contract only to have more asked for? I know we were aware this would happen when Fitzgerald got his dollars, but you have to wonder what is going through the midns of the Cards and the fans at this point. I don't think we'll see a drop off in his play if he is unhappy - he'll still have good fantasy value and is too much of a pro to sulk ala Moss in Oakland.
Jets Sign Gholston, Discover Yet Another Reason Why Pennington Sucked in '07
The Jets have signed Vernon Gholston to what Daily News Blogger Rich Cimini calls a staggering amount for a rookie. I don't know if Cimini is aware but the guys ahead of Gholston have signed for far more guarenteed. I'm not saying 9 mill is dirt cheap - but compared to $30? It's dirt cheap. The escalation of rookie guarenteed money is a subject for another day but he does have one point - Gholston had better be good. Mangini is running out of NY of the normally endless patience of the NY fan faithful. Do I have to write /sarcasm or is it obvious?
As for Pennington a blog at the NY Post is saying Pennington played with two torn ligaments in his right ankle last season. Apparently it happened against the Pats during the first game they played. Maybe the Jets can get some video from the Pats to confirm it? No?
As the commentary under the blog post put it - this explains the red zone INTs last season? Well, maybe not. I'll give Chad this - he's a tough SOB. But I don't know he's the future for this franchise. Unfortunately I don't know he's a short term answer either - and the Jets put a lot of money out there in a way that looks like they want to win now. Is Clemens the answer? By the looks of last season, no.
Whatever the answer is the Jets had best figure it out - time is running short for the staff and another horrific season with this team will bring out the sharp knives.
I would say - like the Raiders - nobody is FORCING you to draft a Jets QB. And as much as I love the team, I can't direct you towards either one. Thomas Jones, behind that revamped Oline might be a nice play but if nobody can get a throw off, 8 men in a box could make for an ugly season there too. Hopefully camp will give us some idea of how bad off this offense is. For now, even Coles and Cotchery are shakier options than they were just a couple of short years ago. They should still get lots of targets - whether it is from Dink'n'Dunk Chad or Clemens with the big arm.
More to come later on.....
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If you have a mind, you can email me at ThunderingBlurb@gmail.com or just post in the comments below....
