Breaking Down the Jets Draft: Shonn Greene, Running Back

With two big moves in the 2009 NFL Draft, the Jets showed they were worried about quality not quantity when it cam to draft strategy.

After trading up for Mark Sanchez in round 1, GM Mike Tannenbaum and Head Coach Rex Ryan decided to roll the dice again and bundle most of the rest of their 2009 picks in a bid to grab arguably the top remaining running back left on the board, Iowa Hawkeye Shonn Greene.

With many Jets fans wondering what is so special about Greene, here is my analysis of the newest Gang Green power running back and how he might fit in the new regime's plans.

Ht: 5-10 (1/2) - Wt 227

Pluses
Greene is an incredibly powerful runner, who can not only show patience in waiting for a hole to develop and the vision to see it happening, but is very tough to bring down for the defense. When they do drag him down, he'll get you that extra distance more by falling forward. He also gets stronger as the game goes on and doesn't easily tire out.

Even though he is older than your average rookie (at 24), he actually doesn't have much wear and tear on those legs. He doesn't cough the ball up, is a very hard worker and a solid team player.

Minus
While he is a very good inside runner, he has problems getting outside and turning the corner. He's not terribly fast and he won't be winning any footraces against most defenders.

There are some doubts about his football IQ and while he shows patience waiting for a play to develop, he sometimes appears indecisive. As he missed some games with shoulder and knee injuries early in his career and has had ankle injuries during his college career.

How It Comes Together
Many feel this pick was a shot across Thomas Jones' bow to end his holdout, but I don't know that's the case. Erik Boland put it best in his Jets Blog on Newsday - even if Jones wasn't holding out, the guy is 31.

The classic thought on running backs is that 30 is the beginning of the end and while Jones has continued to play well, how much tread does he have left? Boland is right - they needed to get younger at the position and look towards the future.

If Jones holds out, the Jets bring Greene in and run him between the tackles while Leon Washington continues to work the outside. Greene can wear the defense down and then Washington can light them up.

If Jones doesn't hold out, or if Greene struggles in camp, he can still rotate in on occasion and give Jones a breather throughout the season as he gets his NFL legs.

And when Jones is done, Greene can move into the backfield with a year of experience and get the hard yards.

Either way I think Greene has a very good chance to be the future power back in an offense that will be geared to the power run behind an offensive line that is built to succeed in the arena.

This will also take pressure off Mark Sanchez if he starts this year or Kellen Clemens if Sanchez gets a year holding a clipboard.

The biggest question is whether the Jets bypassed bigger needs with the trade (there were several solid defensive linemen they could have drafted at that spot or later if they didn't trade up) or if they gave up too much to move up from their position in the third to the top of the round.

Time will tell. What is certain is the fact that the Jets saw an opportunity to jump up and grab at the brass ring not once but twice.

In what is considered an overall weak draft class, they decided that it wasn't how many picks they had or how many rookies they could throw on the field, but instead the quality of those players and what they could mean for the franchise in the long term.

Don't overvalue Mewelde Moore

Something Mr. Bloom and I disagreed on last night was the relative value of Mewelde Moore this week.

I felt - and still do - that Moore will be splitting carries this week and in a pretty tough matchup behind an inconsistent Oline, that spells flex spot and maybe not even that. Just saw this on Rotoworld though and it only makes me feel more confident Moore is a marginal play and that's all this week:

Steelers RB Gary Russell, slated to be the top backup to Mewelde Moore, could receive significant work Sunday.

Said offensive coordinator Bruce Arians, "I wouldn't mind giving it to him 20 times a game. I've been waiting a couple years to see what he can really do." Keep in mind that doesn't guarantee Russell 20 carries this week, but he should be the goal-line back. Najeh Davenport will play only in an emergency.

Now I don't expect Russell to get 20 carries - but they are going to give him the rock a bunch. As another blurb on Rotoworld says, Tomlin is ready to go RBBC this week and you'll probably see Moore more in passing downs than running downs.

Not saying he couldn't bust a long one, but I wouldn't count on production this week from him.

Just saying is all....

Rankings coming very soon.

Rudi Johnson, Detroit Lion

No sooner do I say it's been slow when Detroit goes and signs Rudi Johnson to their roster.

This should spell the end of the Tatum Bell experience in Motown and Johnson should spell rookie Kevin Smith enough to have some potential bye-week upside, if not more. If Smith burns out (as rookies tend to) near the end of the season, RudiJ could have some nice value at the end of the year.

Tuesday Morning Stampede

Hey folks - just a short week away from the return of actual NFL football. College gets us started this weekend, then kickoff on Thursday between Washington and the NY Giants.

Here's the morning look at the news -

Baltimore Ravens
Troy Smith has been vying for the starting QB job and looked like he might get it - until Tonsilitis derailed him. He didn't start game three and hasn't been practicing. The QB situation in Baltimore is bad and if there is any value at the WR position, this is making it hard to find. Mark Clayton is probably the guy to own here but who will throw him the ball. Smith is unproven, Flacco needs work and we all know Boller isn't the clear answer, despite good play last year. If you have to take someone, Clayton is it.

We still don't know what is going on with McGahee's knee, by the way. Ray Rice is an exciting prospect but 1) what if McGahee comes back and 2) he could wear down late in the season. Don't reach for Rice, but if he falls to you as your #3 back somewhere in the 5th - 8th, take him in smile.

Jacksonville Jaguars
MJD owners can breathe a sigh of relief (or sleep soundly at night or relax - whatever trite saying floats yoru boat) as HC Jack Del Rio says Jones-Drew's ankle is only mildly sprained. Don't expect to see him in the preseason finale at Washington, but then again, that's standard procedure for most studs on most teams. I still like Fred Taylor as a guy to shoot for in the 5th-8th rounds. Taylor has something left in the tank and while you can never count on him for TDs, he's great for yardage.

The WR core is still a shambles, though. Garrard will put up respectible numbers but who knows who is catching the ball. Porter has been hurt, Williams -despite last year- is unreliable, Troy Williamson still has hands of cement and most of the guys behind them havne't stepped up. Matt Jones has played well and probably saved his job after the cocaine fiasco a month ago, but he's burned us before, hasn't he? I wouldn't draft him.

San Diego Chargers
The Darren Sproles/Jacob Hester battle continues. After excelling at the goal line this preseason, Hester was stuffed 4 times last night, though he scored on a 5th attempt. Sproles had a huge night, carrying thw ball 13 times for 102 yards and a TD which was - you guessed it - short yardage. As we have said, if LT goes down (ok, I just got a chill typing that) these guys will likely split carries. One bad preseason game does not kille Hester after several very good games. Neither does it puff Sproles up too much. Sproles isn't an every down back, his size and skill set don't quite fit it. Could he step up? Sure. But Hester has played well enough to get a piece of the action. I like Hester as a late back-up for LT or a high upside pick. You know I hate handcuffing, but if you must, go Hester.

Seattle Seahawks
After 3 games, we still don't know who is playing around Nate Burleson (who looked pretty darn good last night. This week, it was Jordan Kent who stepped up on the stat sheet, with 4 catches for 47 yards and a TD. Kent has been very productive, though he fits into the split end position Burleson occupies and is a bit raw. Courtney Taylor only had 3 catches for24 yards, but threw a gorgeous block during Burleson's 68 yard TD. That's the sort of thing coaches love to see, as it proves you can help the run game as well as catch balls. Burleson did some nice work after the catch there as well, but Taylor just annihilated a defender.

Maurice Morris looks to have crept ahead of Julius Jones on the depth chart here in Seattle - but expect a full blown RBBC, though both backs may have some value anyway. They may not be consistent, but then again, one may break out during the season. The run game has to get going here, so the issue will get forced during the early part of the season.

Speaking of RBs -

Quick RB Notes
Mike Bush (OAK) may be getting some work at fullback - that's usually a sign he will be left out in the carries deptartmen and is not going to have much value as a RB for you..... rookie Jamall Charles (KC) is back at practice but will not overtake Kolby Smith as Larry Johnson's back-up. LJ is a guy who has been beat up the last few seasons, but his back-up is not really someone i will go out of my way to draft.... Seattle rookie full back and Blurb fave Justin Forsett fell back to earth after a good preseason. Last night he only got 9 yards on 4 carries, caught on pass and lost a fumble. He's #3 here, though I still think down the road a few seasons, he may prove to be a guy who can start... I don't buy the Rudi Johnson trade rumors out of ESPN. First off, Chris Mortenson (who I have all the respect in the world for) seems to have been off his game this year. Aside from the Favre story, we've seen him throw out some real hum-dingers (Miami trading Ronnie Brown anyone?). But beyond that, who is going to take Johnson and for what? He's been hurt since the jump last season and we've yet to see him in preseason. And with Chris Perry being a walking injury time bomb, Kenny Irons gone and very little behind them (Kenny Watson and.........?) can they afford to dump hinm? And for a 'quality wide receiver'? They could use some shoring up at WR, but I don't know who will be a guy they can get when Rudi is a big question mark and Shaun Alexander, Cedric Benson and others sit out there who might be cheaper and healthier. Of course, who really wants Benson? As I have said, between the injuries and the O-line questions, I have avoided the running backs here all Draft season and will continue to look elsewhere for my #2,s 3 or bench depth.... Speaking of Ronnie Brown, he and Ricky Williams are splitting reps in practice - exactly what we said would happen. Williams hasn't proved he can still carry a whole season and Brown is still coming along from his injury. Both are good RB3s.

OK, folks - that's it for now - will be back with more later!

Keep sending those draft questions to thunderingblurb@gmail.com - been responding to them since I got back Sunday night and will turn them around ASAP for you guys drafting up to the start of the season.

Giants Run Game = Fantasy Death?

According to an interview by Michael Eisen with Giants OC Kevin Gilbride over at Giants.com, if the various Giants running backs stay healthy (and in Bradshaw's case, out of jail) he'd like to see everyone getting plenty of carries with whomever is being successful that game being the featured back.

In other words, one week Brandon Jacobs might be the bell-cow, next week Ahmad Bradshaw.

Or in Gilbride's words -

Then depending on how certain defenses are playing us, which guy's playing better that day, in other words, kind of who has the hot hand, who is playing the best, that is the guy that we would certainly feature that day.

So while from a Giants fan perspective, this might be good (keeping guys fresh and off the injured list are always a plus for defending Super Bowl champs), a Fantasy owner has to ask himself just how much this could drop Brandon Jacobs in their rankings.

As any owner of a Denver Broncos running back can tell you, week to week uncertainty at the running back position can be murder for a Fantasy Team.

This will bear a great deal of watching I think - the Giants have a solid roster of running backs and as Gilbride says, they compliment each other very well. It is entirely possible that if this does transition into a full Running Back by Committee, you may still get solid numbers out of whomever comprises it. But only if the committee stays relatively consistent.

If one week Jacobs is hot, then you start him the next and Ward gets smoking - well, you can see where that's nothing but messy.

Right now, Footballguys has Jacobs ranked 31st overall for offensive players, 19th RB off the board (average staff ranking for a redraft non-PPR league). Antsports is a site that has tons of mock drafts - and if you rank serious mocks, they have Jacobs the 18th RB coming off the board on average in High Performance, flex/TE leagues. In both cases you are looking at Jacobs going before players like Ernest Graham, Willie Parker, Thomas Jones and then a host of rookies.

By the looks of it, Jacobs is also going in about the late 3rd round which is probably about right especially the backs around him like Graham and Parker who might have their share of questions as well.

However you might want to look another way if you're feeliong gunshy. In the Mock Draft Forums over at Footballguys, I drafted Jacobs in a Pre-Draft Survivor League waaaaay back in March in the 3rd round (16 team, no trades, no waivers, Best Ball - or total points elimination - format). He backs up Marion Barber III and has Julius Jones, Ladell Betts and rookie Chris Johnson behind him. I feel ok with that still. But as with the ADP and Rankings I quote above, Thomas Jones is still sitting around at the time and given the questions Jacobs is now facing and the revamped Jets offensive line - he might have been (and still be) the better way to go.

Jones is a topic for another column, but for now, watch this situation closely. While Jacobs was not going to be your #1 FF back and will still giveyou some good points in a RBBC, if it becomes a situation where we never know who will get the majority of the carries in any week, it could be best to just stay away.

Food for thought.

Feel free to throw questions and comments to thunderingblurb@gmail.com as well in the comments section.

Non-Favre news (and some Favre news)

I think I've vented my spleen here and on The Audible enough to keep the Favre stuff brief and move on.

So here is the Thundering Blurb Favre Take for the Day (patent pending)

He's NOT getting an unconditional release. Not a chance. I posted in the Footballguys.com Shark Pool that the only thing worse (PR-wise) that the Packers could do in this situation is to allow him to go within the division. To not only allow him to play elsewhere, but see him TWICE next season. Heck no.

He'll be activated, he'll be traded. I am leaning towards Baltimore as it's out of the division and conference, but Tampa makes sense too. Would love to see him as a Jet, but that's not likely.

But no way in Football Hell he is being released to go where he pleases. If GB does that, then GM Ted Thompson is insane.

/Favre rant

FORMER BRONCOS RB TRAVIS HENRY REPORTEDLY TESTED POSITIVE FOR DRUG USE
Well, now we know why he was released. According to a report by the Denver Sports Insider (producer/reporter Josina Anderson from Fox31) Henry tested positive again for the dope just prior to his release from the Broncos. Shanny said 'lack of committment' in terms of the why when Henry was let go - but I disagree. Sounds like TOO MUCH committment to me. It's a real shame, frankly, as Henry seems to have tremendous talent but can't keep his head straight.

Starts to make you worry a little when Shanny is now defending Brandon Marshall, huh? Hopefully BMarshall can get HIS head on straight before he gets further into trouble.

Speaking of Drugs -

MATT JONES BUSTED FOR COCAINE POSSESSION
I won't be shocked if Jones - who insiders have said already was on the bubble - is released by the end of the weekend. He was already a bust as a wide reciever, wasn't playing consistently well and was just taking up space in Jacksonville. But according to the Orlando Sentinel now he compounded it by being pulled over while in possession of cocaine which, by the way, he reportedly tried to hide from the cops IN HIS HANDS. Nice.

KEVIN JONES DEPORTED TO TAMPA BAY - SAYS HE'S NOT FROM THERE
Apologies for the old Johnny Dangerously quote. But while Kevin Jones was reported to have a visit scheduled with the Tampa Bay Bucs earlier this week, Jones has now come out and said despite what was posted on the ESPN Blog Hashmarks that no, he is not going to Tampa yet. He says in an article with the Tampa Tribune that they haven't called him, though he is still interested in playing there.

Remember a week or so ago how I said it was interesting that reports were focused on how much Jones wanted to play in Tampa but how telling it might be that Tampa wasn't commenting? I'm not saying he won't go to Tampa (he went to Pittsburgh earlier this week) but the fact that they haven't responded yet. Tough market for the Free Agent running backs this off-season, no? Jones will find a home - I'm just dubious it will be Tampa.

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Finally, I wanted to send you guys over to an article my fellow Draftnick and friend Josh Buchanan wrote - an interview with Ramses Barden, WR from Cal Poly. It's posted on NFLDraftbible.com and they do some excellent work there. They are very high on Barden, so take a look. I'll have my own interview with him in another week or so, but Josh is a great source. He knows his stuff. Check it out.

More later or tomorrow.

Quick warning - I will be traveling to Alaska on Monday - either I will have some guest posting or thes posts will be few and far between next week. But I will be back in full force on the 22nd and it'll be postapalooza from there on out including some stuff from Cowboys Camp in Oxnard, California, which I will be covering for Denver radio station FM 104.3 The Fan. Or at least that's my story and I am sticking to it.

As Promised:The Lorenzo Booker interview

Here it is - hope you enjoy listening as much as I enjoyed doing it.

Booker is a pretty awesome cat and I think he'll really blow up in Philly.

Lorenzo Booker interview to come

One of the guys I've been watching work out at Elite Athletics the last few weeks has been Philadelphia Eagles backup RB Lorenzo Booker. Cecil Lammey and I just finished an interview with him a little while ago and he knocked it out of the park.

I'll post it as soon as Cecil edits it and posts it up at footballguys.

It's good stuff.

Follow up on 'If a Kevin Jones Works out....'

So Sunday I wrote about Kevin Jones working out with several teams and wondering which of those teams might sign him.

Adam Shefter of NFLN has added a monkey to the wrench, if you will. According to his report, Kevin Jones is eying the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as a landing point.

On the one hand I wonder at the wording - he's eying the Bucs but are they eying him?

But on the serious side of things, you have to assume, as Shefter does, that it makes some sense for the Bucs. Sure, they just signed Ernest Graham to a 3 year, 10.5 million dollar deal. But as we pointed out Sunday, Graham has all of one year as a starter and that's not much of a track record. Jones plays well, he just has been misused (my opinion)and had some bad injuries (fact).

If he does sign there? I assume the Bucs let him heal for a bunch of games, then ease him in.

For you Fantasy Football players, it really screws with the Bucs RB fantasy value until it shakes it self out.

Of course, as I pointed out - Shefter says Jones is eying the Bucs. But not if the Bucs are really eying Jones.

I'll keep you posted.....