Friday, October 3, 2008

QB Rankings for Week 5

For commentary scroll to the bottom of the entry - I figured people might want to read the list first....

  1. Drew Brees, Saints vs. Vikings
  2. Jay Cutler, Broncos vs. Buccaneers
  3. Tony Romo, Cowboys vs. Bengals
  4. Peyton Manning, Colts at Texans
  5. Philip Rivers, Chargers at Dolphins
  6. Donovan McNabb, Eagles vs. Redskins
  7. Eli Manning, Giants vs. Seahawks
  8. Kurt Warner, Cardinals vs. Bills
  9. Jake Delhomme, Panthers vs. Chiefs
  10. Trent Edwards, Bills at Cardinals
  11. Aaron Rodgers, Packers vs. Falcons (if starting – don’t start Flynn)
  12. Matt Hasselbeck, Seahawks at Giants
  13. Matt Schaub, Texans vs. Colts
  14. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers at Jaguars
  15. Brian Griese, Buccaneers at Broncos
  16. Jason Campbell, Redskins at Eagles
  17. David Garrard, Jaguars vs. Steelers
  18. Kyle Orton, Bears at Lions
  19. Gus Frerotte, Vikings at Saints
  20. J.T. O’Sullivan, 49ers vs. Patriots
  21. Jon Kitna, Lions vs. Bears
  22. Chad Pennington, Dolphins vs. Chargers
  23. Carson Palmer, Bengals at Cowboys
  24. Damon Huard, Chiefs at Panthers
  25. Matt Cassel, Patriots at 49ers
  26. Matt Ryan, Falcons at Packers
  27. Kerry Collins, Titans at Ravens
  28. Joe Flacco, Ravens vs. Titans
Before getting too far into the list, I have to say I think the top five or so QBs this week are very close. It could be less than three points difference from #1 to #5. The matchups for them are all good - most of them flat out GREAT - and they all have the chance at that number one spot. If you happen to be blessed by the football gods to have more than one of the top 5, great. But if you have just one of these top five like most of us mortals, you will be ecstatic.

Drew Brees has the tougher of the five matchups but only marginally so. As I mentioned on ESPN 1230 this morning (and that will eb posted tonight I swear) he has thrown for more than 3oo yards for three out of the first four games. The Vikes give up a touch over 200 yds per game but where they have really excelled is in TDs - just two allowed so far. And I know, you'rs saying 'AG, how can he be tops on the list if Minny can stop the TDs?' Simply put, Drew Brees will have to throw - and throw often. And I think he will find Reggie Bush, Lance Moore or maybe Billy Miller in the the end zone this week. Yes the Vikes are stingy with the TDs but Brees will find that seam, that opening and I think get not just one, but maybe a pair of TDs this week. He may have to as Peterson will probably run all over the Saints D this weekend. They may be catching up all day.

Jay Cutler could be involved in yet another shootout this weekend. This may be common until Denver starts playign good defense. Just a thought. Regardless, I love the weapons this guy has and he has the skills to utilize them to perfection. Now, Tampa is a solid D - they rank 8th in sacks (11) and tied for the league lead in INTs with 8. But they gamble ALOT and that will get them burned for some big plays by Marshall and maybe even Royal this weekend. It won't be an easy day but Cutler will have to throw - and should have success - against a D that has given up 200+ yards a game and 7 TDs so far.

The thing that most keeps Romo from being #1 or 2 is the fact that Cinci is a horrorshow against the run. They don't just suck, they also blow. Couple that with the fact that the Cowboys will not let another game go by where Marion Barber carries a ridiculous eight times and Felix Jones a big fat donut. They will run and run often and with great success. But the other side of this is the big TO thing this week. I think that - regardless of how good the run game goes - they will throw the ball and since there is EVERY chance TO will not be covered well, TO will getwhat he wants - many, many looks. That along with the usual Witten tosses and an emerging Miles Austin translate to a great day for Romo, running game or no.

See, here's the point I was making earlier -Peyton Manning has a fantastic matchup, a fully restocked and healthy Oline and a great receiving core. And he's fourth on the list. Doesn't mean he isn't in for a great start though. Houston has allowed four passing TDs in only three games, have only three sacks and only one INT. Manning could spend the day carving up this secondary and the only thing that could hold him back might be getting Joseph Addai back on track against an equally good matchup.

The Dolphins aren't as good as they were against the Pats. Now, the question is, are they as bad as they were the prior games? They've coughed up six TDs so far this season and are giving up 227 yds per game through the air. Also, I just don't think they have the guys to cover Chambers, Jackson and most importantly Antonio Gates. They cannot cover those guys and contain Tomlinson at the same time. Rivers had an off game last week, but will get back on track this week in Miami.

The biggest questions as of press time are: Will Aaron Rodgers play? Will Ben Roethlisberger? Big Ben (#14) only did a limited practice today and is now officially listed as 'Questionable'. He's been having to take injections to get through practice. He will try to make this game but I am worried again about how effective he will be and I have dropped him a little from where I had him this morning. He could do well against a 'meh' secondary. But a healthier guy would be a better option for you if you had one.

Aaron Rodgers didn't practice today to 'get Matt Flynn the chance to get acclimated'. Gotta say while McCarthy is saying they will watch Rodgers in warm-ups and I am on record as saying I worry Rodgers will play no matter HOW hurt he is to shake the injury label, it sounds like McCarthy is not too confident in Rodgers' ability to play Sunday. I have him ranked 11 if he DOES play as the matchup is good, but he's very risky. At least we'll know first thing if he will play as Green Bay is playing in the first set of games - I will keep you posted Sunday morning but my advice is to make sure you have an alternative to him ready to go. I am feeling the answer will be NO come Sunday.

Another place Sigmund and I differed on last night was Griese vs Kitna if I recall correctly. Kitna may need to throw alot but I think the Bears buckle down hard on Kitna and I am worried he may not finish the game. Griese has a great matchup against a secondary that is 31st in the league and gives up the 276 yards per game, have only one INT and only six sacks. Griese makes mistakes to be sure - 3 picks per game over the last few matchups. I think he does better this week. And I think Kitna struggles. Hence Kitna at 21 and Griese at 15.

Now watch both QBs end up dead last on the day... More ranks later.

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