Thursday, November 13, 2008

New York Jets at New England Patriots Fantasy Breakdown - Jets

Breakdown

The Jets offense Faces a Tough Challenge–
The challenge is as much mental as it is physical – maybe moreso. The Pats tend to have the Jets' number and will be at home, always a major advantage for them. The Pats' pass defense will be sorely tested by Favre & co – which is good and bad for both sides. The Pats have given up the 6th most TDs in the league through the air at 14, but they have the 22nd most sacks with just 16. They also have the 8th most INTs with 10 and that is Favre’s Achilles heel if anything this year. Teams average about 200 yds through the air against New England's D, which is better than average against the pass. They can be stout against the run also – averaging 100yds and a mere 4 TDs on the ground. Keep in mind that all those TDs came in one game against Ronnie Brown. They did just lose Adalius Thomas though, which will negatively affect the Pats' pass rush as he had the most sacks on the team at 5. This is a defense that lacks playmakers but will always get more out of the sum than its parts.

Keep in mind that this game may be played in the rain although the severity of the rain (if it arrives at all) is in question. It could come down to the line and the rushing attack regardless of weather. If it rains, you might bump all the pass numbers down a tick, save maybe Keller for the short yardage work and maybe Washington for the same reason.

Favre – He could go big or have a rough night – figure he hits the average for QBs against the Pats – 200+ but not by much – and maybe a couple TDs at most. He needs to protect the ball and make smart decisions, not turn the ball over which he has done all too frequently. If he cannot protect the ball, game over. I am cautious about starting him as I think the matchup is completely hit or moss. A Patriots pass rush minus Adalius Thomas could give Favre more time and the oline is playing much better than it did early in the season but Favre presses sometimes and if the Jets trail, he may try to make too much happen. I would be happier if my matchups elsewhere were good and pass this week.

Cotchery/Coles – I have been splitting the difference with these guys as that’s what Favre is doing. They can both hover around 50 yds, each have a shot at a TD and then again, they may not. In a blowout last week, neither was looked at much – 1 catch, 3 targets for Coles, 1 catch on 1 target for Cotchery. In a ppr I lean towards Cotch as he gets more looks (7,13,8,1 targets over the last four games) vs Coles (5,11,5,2). Coles has more TDs and gets more looks overall in the redzone (14 targets to Cotchery’s 10) but neither has a ton of TDs. I expected more and have been disappointed with the production to daye, even knowing Favre wouldn't hit stride right away. I think that one of the two will have a good game – but it’s hard to say who. Both are WR2/3 – Cotchery in a PPR is def a 2.

Keller – I bring the rookie TE up because I looked at the stats today in response to an email about him. Keller is starting to gather momentum. He has 4 red zone targets in the last 2 games and is 4th behind Coles, Cotchery and Washington for targets this season – 3rd the last 3 weeks. He’s heating up and may get some work short here.

Thomas Jones – Jones will likely be a workhorse here but no more than RB2 for you. They will need to control the clock and control the ball 0- I figure 20 or so carries – but likely no 100yds and probably no TD. RB2/flex

Washington – flex guy – may get used in the flat and on screens to keep the defenses honest but very risky to start this early in the week.


Overall, I am cautious about who I start here. As I always say, Thursday is no day for risks. Most of the Jets are risks. Even if they win (and I do believe they have an excellent chance to make that happen) the score could be low.

Back in a few with the Patriots break down.

5 comments:

KRH said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
KRH said...

Hey Andrew, so I guess I'm going to collect on that freebie ;)

Nice breakdown on both sides, I generally agree with you on all accounts.

So here is my situation (this Thursday game is killing me.) Help me out here; I play in a league that awards .5 PPR for WR/TE ONLY. Otherwise, pretty standard, 4/6 pts for Qb/Rb TD, 1pt per 10/20 yards rushing and receiving/passing.:

QB: Favre or Shaun Hill (pick 1; we only deduct -1 for INTs)

RB: Addai, Parker, Jones, SJax/Pittman (pick 2)

WR: N/A (Boldin and White)

Flex: Whoever is left over from RB, Cotchery, Jason Hill (pick 1)

Interested to see what you think. For the record, I am leaning: Hill, Addai, Parker, Boldin, White, Jones.

Thanks.

Andrew Garda said...

Hey KRH -
I gotta agree on the QB - the matchup for Hill is pretty good so he should be a good start. Too many factors for Favre - I would rather have him have a better day and be wrong than be right and be behind, you know?

I think with that group of RBs you roll Parker and Jones for sure (the Jets may run alot tonight altho I think it's a tad risky as he may not get TDs). Pittman and SJax are too shaky. So you shuold roll addai out with that matchup to Houston. He or Jones are the flex as I would avoid Cotch.

WR you have to start White and Boldin every week as you did.

So I think you are on point with the lineup. Am facing soem Jet decisions myself - if I get hit by a thunderbolt, will lety ou know... LOL

KRH said...

Mr. Garda,

Couldn't bench Favre... he's my boy. Glad I stuck with him. Started Jones. Benched Cotchery. Kind of sucks, but a WR in the flex is risky. Fast Willie and Addai could easily eclipse Cotchery's output.

Andrew Garda said...

We had Good Favre tonight - he looked very sharp. Cotchery is a bummer but it really is hard to know who Favre will go to and he disappeared in the second half (as did most of the jets)and the two backs you have could very well beat his totals. Heckuva game with Jones too - didn't count on the TD and they gave him 30 carries - finally they got it right.

Too bad they wasted the 2nd half...Glad it is goign well - good luck the rest of the weekend!